How Wisconsin affects national political strategy

By Arthur I. Cyr

"Manufacturing is coming back," President Barack Obama declared Wednesday at a Master Lock plant in Milwaukee, Wis. Actually, the U.S. remains one of the principal manufacturing powers on the planet, but this trip was designed to help win November elections, not provide an economics lecture.

Wisconsin is clearly a priority. In January 2011, the day after his State of the Union speech, the president visited Orion Energy Systems in Manitowoc, on Lake Michigan north of Milwaukee. In July 2010, he held a lively town hall meeting in Racine, in the state's southeast corner. The area has had long-term economic problems.

Obama consistently emphasizes traditional Democratic Party themes of aiding workers. In exchange with citizens, he argues unemployment would be even higher without the enormous federal stimulus.

Obama carried the state by a comfortable margin of 14 points in 2008, but Republicans won in 2010 state and federal elections.

Wisconsin is pivotal to both major parties, and each has its policy experts from the state.

U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan, a Republican, is becoming a steadily more influential point person for a dramatically contrasting conservative vision of the economy. A year ago, Ryan delivered the Republican rebuttal to the State of the Union address. Picking him for this role underscored Wisconsin's importance for both parties, and also this particular rising politician's seriousness and influence as a policy advocate.

Ryan has earned a solid reputation for effective economic analysis and specific federal budget proposals. In our electronic age, where policy complexities are reduced to TV sound bites, Ryan is old-school serious in approach.

Voters here traditionally elect congressional representatives noted for specific sustained policy priorities. The late Les Aspin, a long-time Democratic congressman, was thoroughly expert on defense and became secretary of defense. With a Ph.D. from MIT, he started out in Washington as one of the controversial "whiz kids" of Defense Secretary Robert McNamara.

Democrat Peter Barca succeeded Aspin in the House of Representatives, and both before and after his congressional term has been elected to the state legislature. Barca has been a knowledgeable advocate for disabled children, and increasingly prominent in state politics. His successor in the House, Republican Mark Neumann, developed initiatives regarding both budget and defense policies.

In sum, this part of Wisconsin has an earned reputation for electing policy advocates who consistently do their homework.

At the comprehensive strategic level of national politics, the Midwest is crucial to Obama's re-election. Chuck Todd and Sheldon Gawiser develop this theme in detail in their superb book, "How Barack Obama Won." Obama is from Illinois, the Iowa caucuses provided initial national campaign success, Missouri provided an important Super Tuesday victory, the Wisconsin primary reinforced momentum and Indiana cemented his nomination.

Wisconsin has been a linchpin for Democratic strategists in recent presidential elections. In 2000, Al Gore beat George W. Bush by 4,000 votes; in 2004, John Kerry edged then-President Bush by 12,000. And in 2008, Obama beat John McCain by more than 400,000 votes, with 56 percent of the electorate.

In 2008, Obama won the White House without a Southern running mate, the only time since World War II the Democrats have been victorious without that region represented in the ticket's top two slots. Obama's victory indirectly upended Richard Nixon's "Southern Strategy," which brought that region into the Republican fold.

In practical politics ― the only kind that counts ― this more conservative Republican Party has provided new openings for Democrats in the North, in particular among suburban women voters.

Office seekers, be aware or be sorry.

Arthur I. Cyr is Clausen distinguished professor at Carthage College in Kenosha, Wis., and author of "After the Cold War." He is also a columnist Scripps Howard News Service (www.scrippsnews.com). Reach him at acyr@carthage.edu.