Bring on ’Pyongyang Spring’
By Oh Young-jin
North Korean dictator Kim Jong-il is dead but there are no celebrations in the streets of Pyongyang as was seen in capitals of the Middle East blossoming into Arab Spring, triggered by the Jasmine Revolution in Tunisia.
The lack of popular dynamism in the North is owed to the sense of ambivalence felt by North Koreans, who must be collectively casting a peek this way and that for signs to confirm their Dear Leader’s death, while wailing in deep mourning as expected of any upright citizen of the Worker’s Paradise. They have lived in a gulag for so long that their paranoia has become a way of life.
That big gulag is frozen in time under the brutal rule of the anachronistic dynasty started by Kim’s father, Kim Il-sung. Now the ruler’s whip is, if his plan goes as planned, is being handed over to his 29-year-old third son, Jong-un.
Still, it is an open question whether the untested heir will be able to keep the military on his side, fight the inevitable force of time and keep a hermetic seal on the kingdom.
As shown in the Middle East, the appearance of peace in Pyongyang may mask the kinetic force beneath it, which is about to spiral out of hand. All it needs is a little push.
The Pyongyang Spring may be closer than we think ― North Koreans intoxicated by the first taste of freedom dancing and bringing down statutes of the Kims at the center of the North Korean capital.
An important factor in determining the future of North Korea lies not inside ― Jong-un or the mighty military ― but outside in Seoul, Washington, Beijing, Tokyo and Moscow.
Alas, the outside world is so divided thereby oblivious to their power.
The United States is a severe case of combat fatigue ― waging its war on terror and fighting an economic slump ― and is not in a position to be assertive in forming an international coalition against the North.
Besides, Washington has been inconsistent not about its policy goals ― denuclearization through regime change ― but methods of bringing them about to the point of puzzling its allies.
China, the North’s only ally, is engrossed in maintaining the status quo with no initiative expected from it. After all, the North as it has been is useful to Beijing increasing its heft on the international stage as the only one to influence the erratic Pyongyang in return for paltry assistance.
There is nothing new in this China approach because it was well practiced during the days of the old Middle Kingdom in dealing with non-Han ethnic groups.
Tokyo is chronically myopic, not being able to see beyond the realm of their interests in the Korean equation, and can’t be taken seriously, except for their later role of making economic contributions when the North opens up.
Moscow also has lost a lot of relevance.
In other words, these parties of interest have competing national priorities and moral obligations that often conflict with each other. Thus a need arises for a leadership that cobbles them together, when their objectives go divergent, and give it a forward-moving momentum, when stalling.
South Korea should play this leadership role.
For that, there are a couple of prerequisites.
First, it should abandon its self-imposed sense of fatalism and fill the national psyche with energetic self-determination.
Koreans have lived at the crossroads of outside powers for so long that they believe that they are not the ones that determine their fate, often resigning themselves to the mercy of other apparent bigger countries.
This sense of helplessness often deprives them of their core agenda.
A majority of South Koreans, according to surveys, don’t want an immediate unification because they fear it will adversely affect their living standards. From a short-term perspective, it may be true with a lot of Germans still complaining about the sudden collapse of the Berlin Wall.
But over the long haul, unification may be the only ticket to Korea’s survival because the North would provide for critical mass in terms of population and market. There would address chronic weaknesses facing the South Korean economy that has been in the doldrums without finding another path to growth, being sandwiched by Japan and China.
It is not too late to teach our youngsters to see the big picture and get them ready for the eventuality.
On a more immediate basis, our leaders should be ready to take the leadership role.
The current President Lee Myung-bak is no exception, being given a chance that didn’t appear possible before Kim’s death to beef up his presidential legacy
His governance is tarnished by a series of influence-peddling scandals involving his close aides and family members as well as his lack of statesmanship that is fanning a general divide in society.
Now with less than one year left before the next president is selected, it is time that Lee should act as leader that contributes to the solution of the greatest problem facing the Koreans ― bridging the six-decade national division.
For that, Lee should give up his partisan politics and act as a lightning rod for bipartisanship. Lee, elected on the Grand National Party (GNP), may naturally feel it is his duty to lay the groundwork for an extension of conservative rule but his domestic priority should take a backseat, when it comes to the bigger, national priority.
Our president may fear it would be an admission of his own error at the risk of infuriating his supporters, if he moved drastically from his tit-for-tat policy of dealing with the North. But he was no longer an ordinary politician when he took the oath to be the protector of all interested parties and leader of the nation. If he feels he has underperformed his inaugural oath, it is his chance. Mr. President, bring it on!