Lee administration’s change of hearts

By Kim Mi-kyoung

The Lee Myung-bak administration has had a change of heart: it now wants to engage with North Korea. The pundits say an inter-Korea summit could take place before the end of this year at the latest.

One thing we can be sure of is that Cheong Wa Dae is trying to shift gears in its Northern politics. The change of power within the Ministry of Unification is one of the most convincing indicators of this change. New Unification Minister Ryu Woo-ik has been reiterating his willingness to re-engage with the Pyongyang regime.

We can speculate on the reasons why he wants to talk with the Kim Jong-il government at this particular moment. With the widespread speculation on Kim’s health problems, the presidential office does not want to miss the train as did the Kim Young-sam administration 17 years ago.

His government lost its golden opportunity to hold the very first inter-Korean summit when Kim Il-sung passed away of sudden heart failure in 1994. The succeeding Kim Dae-jung administration left its mark on history for holding the first summit in June 2000.

It may well be time pressure as the Lee administration is nearing the end its five-year presidential term. Before its time is up, the administration should want to add one more accomplishment.

This shift was exactly what happened during the George W. Bush administration. During his first term, the brash American president was not shy in expressing his moral contempt toward the North Korean leader and his regime by “deploring” him as a “pygmy” and a member of the “axis of evil.”

Whilst Bush proved himself to be a judgmental name-caller, he toned down his rhetoric during his second term. He realized that uncouth acts of name-calling were not helpful in demonstrating diplomatic skill.

The Lee administration calls its Northern policy a “grand bargain.” This means that Seoul’s negotiation package includes all the relevant agenda items ranging from denuclearization, halting of missile development, improvement of human rights situations and the control of Northern Limit Line provocations among others.

The idea of comprehensive bargaining has failed to induce the desired change on the dictatorial leadership, while the inter-Korean impasse has become ever more challenging. The Cheonan sinking and Yeonpyeong shelling of last year were two very tragic reminders of the consistent belligerence and provocations of North Korea.

It is about time for the Seoul government to readjust its stance toward the Pyongyang regime, despite moral abhorrence and many logistical hurdles. That is because none of the neighboring countries in the region wants to see the two Koreas unified.

East Asia as a region embeds many diversities. But the regional governments' strategic calculations vis-a-vis Korean unification are similar and simple: None of them want the two Koreas unified. China, the regional hegemon, insists on maintaining status quo, and that includes the continuity of the Pyongyang leadership.

It does not welcome the disruptive changes and chaos which could hamper its “peaceful rise.” Japan, a self-claimed rival of South Korea, has nothing whatsoever to gain from a stronger and more vivacious Korean Peninsula. With its economy declining and governing capacity dwindling, especially in the aftermath of the March 11 earthquakes and tsunami, the last thing it would want to see in regional dynamics is a unified Korea.

The U.S., our staunch ally, would have the least of reservations about the prospects among the Big Three, and yet it will have to stay attuned to the dissenting voices coming from Beijing and Tokyo. The current hurdles for unification are many and real, and yet it does not mean that the Seoul should sit back and watch time pass.

Considering the medium power status of both Koreas in the league of big powers, Seoul has to take the initiative in re-opening dialogue with the North’s regime. That is to reflect two cold realities: South Korea is still a shrimp in a circle of whales regardless of its impressive growth; and if it does nothing about the current stalemate, no other players will.

The achievements of South Korea over the past decades are more than impressive. And yet, our neighbors, China and Japan, are the second and third largest powers in the international community. There should be a balancing perception between chronological and cross-sectional developments to play smart within the region.

At the end of the day, Korean affairs will have to be resolved by the two Koreas where Seoul has to take the initiatives in dictating the terms. And that levies the moral, strategic, and economic burden on the South. We should take the mission in our stride because efforts to resolve the past 60 years of division are the call of history.

This cliche seems to have almost evaded us for a good while, and the statements made by the new unification minister prove that it has not become invalid. And so it should not be.

Kim Mi-kyoung is associate professor at Hiroshima City University-Hiroshima Peace Institute. She can be reached at mkkim_33@hotmail.com. The views expressed in the above article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of The Korea Times.