How to achieve strategic mutual trust

By Frank Ching

Chinese President Hu Jintao’s state visit to the United States has stemmed the deterioration in the bilateral relationship of the last year or so. What is unclear is whether it will actually lead to what the two nations now call “a cooperative partnership based on mutual respect and mutual benefit.”

President Hu, during the welcoming ceremonies on the South Lawn of the White House, declared the purpose of his visit was to “increase mutual trust, enhance friendship, deepen cooperation and advance the positive, cooperative and comprehensive China-U.S. relationship.”

The American objectives were more limited. They were to seek progress in the areas of security, the economy and human rights.

The importance of human rights was underlined by President Barack Obama when, in his welcoming remarks, he pointedly told the Chinese leader that “nations are more successful and the world is more just” when the “universal rights of every human being” are upheld.

Both sides are hailing the visit as a success. Certainly, short-term progress has been made.

China joined the United States in expressing concern over a North Korean uranium-enrichment plant. To strengthen protection of intellectual property, China agreed that government agencies at all levels would only use legitimate software.

Moreover, China said that foreign companies would not be excluded from government contracts because of its policy of favoring indigenous innovation.

And President Hu publicly declared that China “recognizes and also respects the universality of human rights” and acknowledged that “a lot still needs to be done in China in terms of human rights.”

It will take months to see if there is significant change in Chinese policy. Certainly, on human rights, little dramatic change is likely and, despite President Obama bringing up the case of Liu Xiaobo, the Nobel Peace Prize laureate, he is likely to continue to languish in prison.

If any prisoner is released, it is likely to be Xue Feng, an American geologist who had gathered commercial information in China but who is now in prison on a charge of stealing state secrets.

The two sides again released a joint statement, following one in November 2009 during President Obama’s visit to China, in which they “agreed to work further to nurture and deepen bilateral strategic trust to enhance their relations.”

However, fundamental differences remain and there are no signs that they have been overcome, or even narrowed.

Thus, on the issue of Taiwan, which is surely at the innermost core of China’s “core interests,” the United States shows little sign of wavering from its policy of continuing to sell arms to the island to help it defend itself.

As in 2009, the joint statement referred to the three joint communiques issued by the two countries as laying the foundation for the bilateral relationship.

But, again as in 2009, President Obama in his press statement reaffirmed the Taiwan Relations Act, which commits Washington to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself.

In January 2010, two months after the Obama visit, the United States announced a $6.4 billion arms package for Taiwan, after which Beijing halted military-to-military exchanges with Washington.

There is little doubt that if Washington were to announce another arms package for Taiwan, Beijing would respond in similar fashion, despite what both nations said in the latest joint statement about the importance of a “healthy, stable and reliable military-to-military relationship.”

Both Obama and Hu have invested much of their personal prestige in the bilateral relationship and will not lightly give up what has been achieved, even if it is largely an improved atmosphere.

Both Washington and Beijing have acknowledged that how the U.S. and China relate to one another affects the rest of the world. Certainly, if the Sino-American relationship improves fundamentally, it will help China’s relationship with its neighbors in Asia, particularly with Japan and South Korea.

One way to get the U.S. and China out of this cycle of mistrust is if Beijing accepts that the Taiwan issue will be resolved peacefully and acts accordingly. If, for example, the 1,000 plus cruise missiles facing Taiwan are dismantled, it would put great pressure on the U.S. not to approve further arms sales to the island.

Until the United States and China believe that their interests are indeed common and aligned, it will be difficult for them to achieve strategic mutual trust.

And, in the absence of such trust, the improved atmospherics in the relationship cannot last.

Frank Ching is a journalist and commentator in Hong Kong. He can be reached at Frank.ching@gmail.com.