Run-up to 2012 elections

By Kim Jong-chan

Deputy Managing Editor

The month of July saw the ruling Grand National Party (GNP) undergo a leadership change at its biennial national convention and President Lee Myung-bak replace his chief of staff and senior secretaries.

President Lee, with half of his five-year tenure remaining, is also expected to reshuffle Cabinet ministers after the National Assembly by-elections, Wednesday.

The main opposition Democratic Party (DP) is no exception. It is scheduled to choose its new leaders for a two-year term next month.

As the major showdown is looming larger, DP members are differing over whether incumbent party leaders should resign to ensure fairness in the election.

Those who support Rep. Chung Dong-young, a former presidential candidate, called for the creation of an interim leadership. They demanded that a collective leadership be introduced during the forthcoming national convention.

They think that the remodeling of the DP is a must to prepare for the National Assembly elections in 2012 and the presidential poll in December, the same year.

They threatened to boycott the leadership contest, should the incumbent leaders continue to try to keep their vested rights.

They argue that incumbent party Chairman Rep. Chung Sye-kyun nestles in the current situation, following the party's winning of the June 2 local elections regarded as an interim evaluation of the first half of President Lee's five-year tenure.

The DP chairman, who seeks reelection, and his followers oppose the non-mainstreamers’ demands. They remain firm in their position that a one-man leadership is a prerequisite to making the DP stronger.

Mainstreamers within the GNP, meanwhile, united to sweep its leadership race in mid-July. Those affiliated with President Lee took four of five seats in the party's decision-making Supreme Council. The remaining one seat went to a group led by former party chairwoman Rep. Park Geun-hye.

Rep. Suh Byung-soo managed to rank fifth to become the only member of the council belonging to the party's second largest Park Geun-hye sect.

But the fact that the council is under the control of mainstreamers does not mean that things will go as they wish.

In defiance of President Lee, GNP legislators loyal to former party chairwoman Park joined hands with DP lawmakers late last month to reject the government’s proposal calling for the scrapping of the previous Roh Moo-hyun administration’s plan to relocate government offices from Seoul to South Chungcheong Province.

The parliamentary rejection of the revised development plan for Sejong City put an end to nine months of wrangling over the issue between the two GNP factions as well as between the two parties.

President Lee, a former business executive and Seoul mayor, opposed the relocation of nine ministries and four government agencies out of the capital, citing administrative inefficiency, among others. The presidential office, the National Assembly, the Supreme Court and other offices would remain in the capital.

On the other hand, Park, one of the strongest potential candidates for the 2012 presidential election, considered it important to keep the promise to the people ― mainstreamers called it resorting to populism ― to prevent public distrust toward politicians from growing. Under the Constitution, President Lee is banned from seeking reelection.

But actually in the parliamentary vote during the Roh administration, then GNP leader Park did not support the relocation plan for balanced regional development. Park and three other legislators abstained.

The June showdown between the two GNP sects indicates that the fences of the factional feud are too high to mend, and that the party may break up sometime before the next presidential election.

Park, who lost her bid for the GNP's 2007 presidential nomination to President Lee by a razor-thin margin, has recently broadened her internal base as the party approved a merger with a group of eight lawmakers loyal to her during the July 14 convention.

The rejection dealt a blow to Prime Minister Chung Un-chan. Chung, who has long been considered a viable candidate for the 2012 presidential race, had spearheaded the drive to overhaul the original plan to build an administrative town in the Chungcheong region since his inauguration last September.

Chung hinted at stepping down over the failure to have the legislature pass the revision plan. But it remains to be seen whether Chung will be replaced in the upcoming Cabinet reshuffle or not.

President Lee reportedly declined to accept Chung's resignation, over the GNP's unexpected defeat in the June local polls.

Will Prime Minister Chung retain his post? President Lee's choice will alter the nation’s political landscape in the run-up to the 2012 presidential race in one form or another.