What to make of current crisis

By Tong Kim

A security crisis ― perhaps the worst one in decades ― has erupted on the Korean Peninsula following the delivery of a decisive guilty verdict against North Korea for the sinking of a South Korean corvette. Tensions are escalating as a vehement exchange of provocative threats and actions continues between the North and the South. People are coming to think of an unthinkable outcome: a second Korean War, which nobody wants.

The diplomacy of dialogue also sank. Today people do not talk about the six-party talks or the denuclearization of North Korea. Instead, they talk about whether the North Koreans would carry out their threats in reaction to Seoul's strong measures ― although some of them are prudently enforced.

Would the Korean People's Army (KPA) ``target and destroy" South Korean psychological operations loud speakers if they start broadcasting in the DMZ, as the KPA said it would? Seoul's posture is resolute: in the event of such an attack, the South would response in self-defense, not an expression of an equivocal intent to employ military retaliation. If a DMZ skirmish develops into a limited battle, how would it end? Would it get out of control? What mechanism is there now to contain future eruptions of close-calls from escalating into a war?

Would the North Korean navy just watch or react by firing a volley of ground-to-sea missiles, when the South conducts exercises jointly with the United States, in or near the disputed waters of the North Limit Line (NLL), never recognized internationally therefore providing a space for frequent armed clashes? Would the next clash inflict more damage to one side or to both sides? Would it be the last sea battle?

Would North Korea stop its provocations, succumbing to pressure from the international community or the South equipped with additional sanctions and increased deterrents? What better conditions are there now which would help prevent the North from risking a war other than their weakness in economic power? At what point would the North collapse? Would it launch a more deadly attack, provoking an all-out war, before it collapses if China cuts off its lifeline?

Diplomacy has shrunk to an effort to muster international support to punish North Korea through a new U.N. sanction or condemnation, in parallel with punitive measures respectively by the United States, Japan and other partners of the South. Washington and Tokyo have rallied behind South Korea, which after a two-month-long probe announced the conclusion that the North was responsible, based on an ``objective and scientific analysis of evidence." According to a survey, 72 percent of South Koreans believed in the integrity of the investigation. Washington called the evidence ``overwhelming" and ``compelling."

However, China has not yet decided to accept the result of South Korea's investigation. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said, ``China would not defend any party, while it ``takes serious note of the result of the investigation … as well as reactions by all parties," which includes adamant denials by North Korea.

Russia also reserves its decision, asking for ``100-percent evidence" for North Korea's responsibility. Moscow would send to Korea its own team of experts to examine the evidence before it would announce its position. Russia's demand for 100-percent proof and China's reluctant attitude do not bode well for a new U.N. Security Council resolution.

In the meantime, Seoul has taken a series of tough measures from a strong posture. In view of the Seoul government's conservative policy, these measures were almost unavoidable despite some risks they may entail. The South is saying, ``Enough is enough." Yet, it was prudent for Seoul to avoid a military option in retaliation and to keep the Gaeseong Industrial Complex open.

Measures put into action by the South include: (1) A demand for an apology and the punishment of those responsible for the attack, (2) The suspension of all trade relations with the North, (3) The closing of sea lanes to North Korean ships, (4) The redesignation of North Korea as South Korea's enemy, (5) The resumption of psychological warfare operations, (6) A stern warning that any future provocation might meet a military response, (7) Conducting anti-submarine warfare exercises on the West Sea, and (8) A decision to take the issue to the U.N. Security Council.

North Korea has angrily reacted to Seoul's actions as follows: (1) Repeated denials of its involvement through various government outlets including a special press conference held by the National Defense Commission, (2) The suspension of all relations with the South, opting for confrontational measures including an ``all-out war," (3) The nullification of all inter-Korean agreements, (4) Blocking access by South Korean carriers to North Korean waters and air space, (5) Cutting off all communication systems including commercial maritime communication, (6) Cancelling the security assurance for inter-Korean economic activities, and (7) Threatening to close down the Gaesung Industrial Complex, the last channel of any contact.

While Seoul and Pyongyang are busy reacting to each other with short term measures, probably without appreciating the broader ramifications for the future interest of the Korean Peninsula, many observers, including myself, believe that this crisis would not lead to a major war largely because the North Koreans, despite their belligerent rhetoric, are not ready for a war at this point. However, it would be quite likely that the North would make good on its word that it would not talk to the incumbent government of the South.

Paradoxically, the prevention of war depends on the North's rational thinking, whereas inter-Korean dialogue depends on the South's realistic reassessment of North Korea's survivability. Deterrence to war works when the adversary is convinced of defeat and when he is not suicidal. What's your take?

Tong Kim is a research professor with the Ilmin Institute of International Relations at Korea University and an adjunct professor at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). He can be reached at tong.kim8@yahoo.com.