How to Treat North Korea

By Tom Plate

LOS ANGELES ― On the question of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), better known as (a) North Korea, (b) notorious charter member of Bush's ``Axis of Evil" and (c) pain-in-the-neck threat to world peace and stability, here are a few humble observations (basically, no one really knows what to do about North Korea, including China):

First, you do not need to scramble to the telephone to get the local contractor to sink that bomb shelter into your backyard ― not just yet, anyway. In its current state evolution (only partially post-dinosaur), North Korea is still far from being a serious world-threatening nuclear power.

It is true, the trend lines are ominous: in recent days this much unloved regime test-fired a few missiles and looks to have detonated yet another underground nuclear explosion of unclear size and uncertain sophistication.

Even so, this all amounts to a mean flurry of activity from a regime claiming the adherence of some 23 million residents ― almost every last one being ethnic Korean, and too many being mainly hungry.

Two, you would think that China, the originator of the six-party (nuclear disarmament) talks for Korea that started up in 2003, would be embarrassed by the latest morose turn of events.

But China, its long-time ally, is not totally hapless. All along, it has said that DPRK is such an enfant terrible that even the great People's Republic of China, in all its looming majesty, cannot really control it.

And its greatest fear is not of its missiles but its potentially massive migrant population: China prefers the company of secure, sealed, unthreatening buffer states. Given its common border with DPRK, it is much opposed to North Korea's instability, whatever the regime's nature.

Three, from the United Nations and elsewhere, you will hear calls for further isolation of the North in retaliation for its geopolitical juvenile delinquency. When you hear such, take a deep meditative breath and down a cup of strong green tea (or, perhaps, high-quality soju).

North Korea comprises the top half of a peninsula that has long behaved as an island unto itself: Calls from the West to isolate it further is like asking to further isolate Pluto from Uranus. What would be the point? Besides, isolation as policy doesn't work, if what you want is regime amelioration, not to mention change.

Four, if it is outright regime-change that you prefer, consider trying something different. Consider aggressive, near-reckless engagement. What do you have to lose? That the North Koreans will be emboldened to … what? … launch missile and nuclear tests?

Heck, they've already been doing that. Better to execute an Obama (the bold campaign Barack, not the waffling presidential one) and run circles around the North Koreans with an embarrassment of recognition and riches.

Drop the embargo, establish a U.S. embassy in Pyongyang (we have no official representation there now ― can you believe it?), fatten the regime up with aid, accumulate leverage, change the behavior, establish regional peace ― try to be subtle, indirect and smart for once.

Five, we don't do that and here's what we get: probably a destabilizing regional arms race ― amid a trigger-happy Tokyo. For it is hard to believe that the Japanese will sit tight with Pyongyang on a missile-test spree.

For Japan, North Korea, in the midst of a leadership succession, is far more the enemy than China and, in case we haven't noticed, the politics in Tokyo these days is volatile. The government is unstable and the opposition under reorganization. So Pyongyang is to Tokyo what Tehran is to Tel Aviv: a constant temptation to launch a preemptive strike.

Six and finally, consider the peninsula's economic gem: South Korea. But politically it's a mess too. Just the other day its former President Roh Moo-hyun ― a popular populist ― jumped off a mountain to his death, and the current, conservative one keeps tripping down in the polls.

In June President Obama is to meet with President Lee Myung-bak at the White House. This is where the administration, which has tried to back-burner the Korean problem, needs to get a grip and realize that trying to do more blustery Bush stuff ― more isolation and threat ― didn't work over the last eight years, won't work now and with this particular regime won't work ever.

Diplomatic recognition does not mean a nation's seal of approval. Washington conducts daily civilized diplomatic relations even with regimes that are anti-democratic, anti-woman and coddling of extremists (e.g., Saudi Arabia).

So we hold our nose as we go about our diplomatic duties. But in North Korea, Swiss diplomats now conduct America's business. This is a Kafkaesque absurdity. You propose to change North Korea by treating it like Pluto? Go ahead and try it if you like.

But Pluto's not going to alter its orbit without a very large mass closing in on it steadily and carefully. The U.S. needs to get closer to Pluto fast. It is that simple.

Syndicated columnist and journalist Tom Plate, after 14 years of university teaching, is at work writing two books on Asia. He can be reached at platecolumn@gmail.com.