Stand United Against N. Korea

By Frank Ching

Despite the political upheavals in Thailand that led to the aborted summit meetings scheduled in Pattaya between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and its dialogue partners, the leaders of China, Japan and South Korea managed to meet and reach agreement on pushing forward the six-party talks in the wake of North Korea's rocket launch.

And at the United Nations, Japan and the five permanent members of the Security Council agreed on a compromise. Instead of passing a binding resolution, they agreed on issuing a presidential statement, which is somewhat less forceful. On Monday, the council unanimously adopted the agreement condemning North Korea's April 5 rocket launch.

The world looks to China to reconvene the six-party talks, which have broken down over procedures to verify Pyongyang's nuclear declaration, which it issued in June 2008.

Beijing therefore has to weigh the international outrage over the controversial launch against North Korea's likely reaction to any condemnation by the United Nations. The compromise of the presidential statement was, in the circumstances, the only possible decision.

A Security Council resolution, favored by Japan and the United States, could well have closed the door to a resumption of the six-party talks, which stalled last December. Even a presidential statement will trigger a strong reaction, but it would probably leave the door open to future talks.

The North Korean leader Kim Jong-il was re-elected April 9 by the Supreme People's Assembly to a third term. The 68-year-old is believed to have suffered a stroke last August and has visibly aged since then.

He is still in charge of his reclusive nation, but what will happen after he departs the scene is overshadowed by a big question mark.

China and North Korea are celebrating the 60th anniversary of their establishment of diplomatic relations on October 6, 1949, only five days after the proclamation of the People's Republic, and 2009 has been dubbed a year of friendship by the two countries.

North Korea's premier, Kim Yong-il ― who is not related to Kim Jong-il ― paid a goodwill visit to China last month as part of the year's festivities.

While the two countries maintain cordial relations, the relationship is not the close alliance that it was in the 1950s, when China sent troops to fight alongside North Korean soldiers against American and other allied forces on the South Korean side. At the time, China described the relationship as being as close as ``lips and teeth.''

Beijing has distanced itself from Pyongyang and, in 2006, voted twice in the Security Council to condemn North Korea, first for conducting missile launches and later for holding a nuclear test. In fact, China has parlayed its position as chair of the six-party talks into much closer relations with the United States.

At the time North Korea made veiled accusations against China, calling it a renegade to the socialist cause which had joined the capitalist world and depicted itself as the only country still willing to defend socialism.

China has to play a number of balancing games. It has to balance its relationship with its former ally against its ties with the West, in particular the United States. It has to balance its position as an advocate of developing countries against the developed world.

And it has to balance its position as a responsible power opposed to nuclear proliferation against its need to retain influence over the North Korean leadership.

China, which already finds itself surrounded by nuclear powers ― the United States, Russia and India ― does not want North Korea to turn into another nuclear neighbor, one that is all too unpredictable.

However, it is also wary about pushing too hard and bringing about North Korea's collapse, which will result in a flood of refugees into the country.

The announcement earlier this month by the United States and Russia of talks to cut their nuclear stockpiles and to aim for a nuclear weapons-free world will put additional impetus into the move to contain and eventually eradicate North Korea's nuclear program.

Pyongyang had multiple goals for going ahead with the rocket launch despite overwhelming international opposition. On the domestic side, it wanted to show its population that North Korea is a country that must be reckoned with by the world, and that its leadership remained strong.

Another goal was undoubtedly to divide the international community, pitting hard-line countries such as Japan and the United States against China and Russia. Fortunately, those countries recognized the need for maintaining a united front vis-a-vis North Korea.

By agreeing to a compromise statement, they have showed that, on the need to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula, they still stand united.

Frank Ching is a journalist and commentator in Hong Kong. He can be reached at frank.ching@gmail.com.