N. Korea likely to conduct nuclear test next week: analysts

By Kim Tae-gyu

The majority of analysts in South Korea predict North Korea will carry out its threatened nuclear test next week despite opposition from the international community.

They think the detonation will come ahead of the North’s previous leader Kim Jong-il’s birthday, which falls on Feb. 16. The son of the nation’s founder Kim Il-sung is the late father of current ruler Kim Jong-un.

“In 2006 and 2009, the North carried out nuclear detonations within a month after it declared it would do so. As it announced its intention to conduct a third test late last month, it will be sometime in February,” Prof. Yang Moo-jin at the University of North Korean Studies said.

“Another consideration is that the communist state has tended to create a festive mood ahead of Kim Jong-il’s or Kim Il-sung’s birthdays. The nuclear test fits the bill.”

It was also known as a dying wish of Kim Jong-il for the North to develop nuclear weapons.

Yang added that Feb. 12 is the most probable date since U.S. President Barack Obama will deliver the State of the Union address that day to announce the nation’s policies, including those concerning North Korea.

The date is also two days after the eighth anniversary of the Feb. 10, 2005, declaration when Pyongyang said its regime is armed with nuclear weapons so as to grapple with the “aggressions of the Bush administration.”

“The nuclear agenda of the North is about pressing the United States. Hence, it would make sense for Kim Jong-un to carry out a nuclear test in time with the State of the Union address,” he said.

Prof. Kim Yong-hyun at Dongguk University agreed.

“Nobody will know exactly when the North will press the button for the nuclear test. But the chances are that it will do so late next week just ahead of Kim Jong-il’s birthday,” he said.

Chang Yong-seok, a senior researcher at Seoul National University’s Institute for Peace and Unification Studies, was basically on the same page as the two professors.

“Mid-February is the most plausible time, in particular ahead of Kim Jong-il’s birthday,” Chang said. “In light of its track record, Presidents Day on Feb. 18 is another possibility.”

The North’s first nuclear test was on Oct. 9, 2006, Columbus Day, while the second one was on May 20, 2009, Memorial Day.

Some predict that test will be around the inauguration of Park Geun-hye on Feb. 25. Others think that the date will be in April just ahead of the anniversary of Kim Il-sung’s birthday.