Lee Hyo-jin covers the Bank of Korea, the banking industry and broader financial news. Her previous beats include foreign affairs, North Korea and general reporting on Korean society.
Escalating China-Japan tension puts Korea in diplomatic tight spot
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, left, shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping ahead of their summit in Gyeongju, North Gyeongsang Province, Oct. 31. Reuters-Yonhap
By Lee Hyo-jin
Seoul advised to play balancing act as Beijing-Tokyo rift expected to spill over to trade, economy
Korea may find itself walking a tightrope between China and Japan as tensions intensify between its two closest neighbors, analysts said Wednesday, adding that Seoul is advised to pursue strategic ambiguity.
While the current tensions between Tokyo and Beijing largely revolve around tourism and culture, they show signs of spilling over into trade and economic issues, according to experts, potentially creating broader challenges for Seoul.
The latest flare-up was triggered by comments from Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi earlier this month, in which she said that a military emergency involving Taiwan could be construed as a threat to Japan’s survival. China quickly condemned the remarks as dangerously provocative.
China escalated its response Wednesday by suspending imports of Japanese seafood, following Friday's advisory for its citizens to avoid traveling there. Tokyo cautioned its nationals in China to stay alert and avoid large crowds. Senior diplomats from both countries met in Beijing on Tuesday, but the talks ended without any signs of progress.
For Korea, the ongoing spat could offer limited short-term gains, including a potential uptick in Chinese tourists choosing to bypass Japan. However, with the dispute unlikely to ease soon, analysts warn that the escalating tensions between its two neighbors could create new diplomatic headaches for Seoul.
"Boosted by strong approval ratings early in her term, Takaichi is unlikely to back down. Both countries appear to be preparing for a prolonged standoff," Yang Ki-ho, a professor of Japanese studies at Sungkonghoe University, told The Korea Times.
"The tensions, currently centered on tourism and people-to-people exchanges, are likely to spill over into trade and economic issues, which could have both direct and indirect effects on Korea's relations with both countries."
Diplomatic observers viewed Takaichi's assertive remarks on Taiwan as a signal that Tokyo will firmly align with Washington while stepping away from Beijing.
"This is expected to shift Japan's security focus toward strengthening the Korea-U.S.-Japan trilateral framework, a development likely welcomed by the U.S., given its priority of containing China," Yang said.
President Lee Jae Myung shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping during their summit in Gyeongju, North Gyeongsang Province, Nov. 1. Yonhap
As for China, it is expected to continue extending overtures to Seoul to prevent the trilateral framework from advancing too far, making Korea's ability to maintain a delicate balance more crucial.
Relations between Seoul and Beijing have recently entered a thaw after years of chill, with the summit between President Lee Jae Myung and President Xi Jinping on Nov. 1 — Xi's first visit to Korea in 11 years — sending the clearest signal of a reset in bilateral ties.
Earlier this week, China took the unusual step of indirectly siding with Korea in the long-running territorial dispute between Seoul and Tokyo over the Dokdo islets.
"We urge Japan to repent for its history of aggression, stick to the path of peaceful development and take concrete actions to earn the trust of its neighbors in Asia and the international community," Mao Ning, a spokesperson for the Chinese foreign ministry, said Monday during a press conference, responding to a question on Dokdo.
Her remarks marked a departure from the Chinese government's previous stance of avoiding direct comments on Dokdo.
"By publicly criticizing Japan over the Dokdo issue, Beijing appears to be signaling subtle support for Seoul's position. China is expected to continue making similar gestures to draw Korea closer, as it worries that prolonged tensions with Japan could undermine its influence in East Asia," said Kang Jun-young, a China expert at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies.
"It is still difficult to predict exactly how the China-Japan dispute will affect Korea, but for one thing, the Korean government will need to tread carefully to avoid appearing to take sides or intervene."
Korea's foreign ministry declined to comment on the ongoing friction between China and Japan.