Lee Hyo-jin covers the Bank of Korea, the banking industry and broader financial news. Her previous beats include foreign affairs, North Korea and general reporting on Korean society.
S. Korea-China relations expected to remain rocky in 2024
President Yoon Suk Yeol shakes hands with Chinese leader Xi Jinping during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leaders' Meeting in San Fransico, Nov. 16, 2023 (local time). Joint Press Corps
By Lee Hyo-jin
Seoul, Beijing, Tokyo trilateral summit unlikely any time soon
Editor’s note
This article is the second in a four-part series that provides an analysis of South Korea’s diplomatic situation with neighboring countries at the start of 2024. ― ED.
President Yoon Suk Yeol and Chinese leader Xi Jinping conversed for just three minutes without holding a formal meeting during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in San Francisco held in November of last year.
That same month, a unique foreign ministerial meeting occurred between South Korea, Japan, and China in Busan. Preceding the event, there were ongoing discussions for the three ministers to conduct a joint press conference and have a dinner afterward. However, these plans were canceled reportedly due to Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's constraints on time during his visit to Korea.
These incidents serve as clear indicators of the increasing rift between South Korea and China.
This uneasy relationship is anticipated to persist this year, according to diplomatic observers.
The year 2024 will be marked by continued challenges and uncertainties in bilateral ties between the two Asian neighbors, as both countries are unlikely to demonstrate a significant willingness to alleviate the strained relations.
"Since the Yoon administration took office (in May 2022), we have observed some challenges in relations with China. Particularly noteworthy is China's open expression of discomfort since last November, accompanied by signals suggesting a diminished commitment to actively ease tensions," said Kim Heung-kyu, director of the U.S.-China Policy Institute at Ajou University.
"As it stands, the prospects for relations with China indicate that challenges are likely to persist throughout the current year," Kim added.
Yoon, whose foreign policy emphasizes fostering alliances based on shared values, has been cultivating stronger connections with the United States and Japan. This has sparked objections from Beijing which perceives these efforts as South Korea joining U.S.-led efforts to encircle China.
"I believe there's a dilemma within the Yoon administration regarding how to shape relations with China. Diplomatically, South Korea appears to be aligning with the U.S. within the global framework presented by Washington as 'democracy versus autocracy.' This narrative categorizes China as an authoritarian state, which may pose challenges to the South Korea- U.S. alliance," Kim said.
"On the other hand, the government acknowledges the risks associated with distancing from China, our largest trade partner. China holds various options for economic retaliation against South Korea, and the recent control on urea exports was just one of the many cards it could play," he added.
However, the Yoon government appears to lack a dedicated strategy to ease bilateral tensions with Beijing, Kim said.
Starting this year, National Security Adviser Chang Ho-jin and Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul, both newly appointed, will lead Yoon's foreign policy team.
During a parliamentary confirmation hearing on Jan. 8, Cho said South Korea should work on its relations with China based on the principle that it does not harm the alliance with the U.S.
"An alliance is an alliance, and a partnership is a partnership. I don't believe we can achieve a perfect balance between these two relationships, " the foreign minister said, signaling that the government's foreign policies will continue to prioritize the U.S. alliance over its partnership with China.
People walk past a screen that shows Chinese President Xi Jinping delivering a New Year's address in Beijing, China, Dec. 31, 2023. EPA-Yonhap
Xi has a lot on his plate, making it unlikely that Beijing will prioritize the South Korea-China relationship on its 2024 agenda, according to Kang Joon-young, a professor of Chinese studies at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies.
The urgent task for the Chinese leader on the domestic front is to improve the economy, which is plagued by a property crisis and high youth unemployment. Beyond the borders, Xi is expected to invest more efforts in managing relations with the U.S. and rallying support from the Global South, while keeping a close eye on Taiwan following the presidential election there.
A trilateral summit between Seoul, Beijing and Tokyo that is under discussion, if held, could create some room for diplomatic engagement. However, experts say it is highly unlikely to occur in the near future, at least not in the first half of 2024.
"I don't see the trilateral summit happening anytime soon. The key reason for the delay is the absence of positive interaction or optimistic expectations from China regarding the trilateral summit. This trend is likely to persist until China perceives a positive shift in policy from South Korea and Japan," said Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center.
Kim echoed a similar view.
The researcher believes that if the summit occurs before South Korea's April 10 general elections, it would be deemed a diplomatic achievement for the Yoon administration. While foreign diplomacy is not a decisive factor in the parliamentary elections, any signs of improvement in relations with China through the three-way summit could contribute to boosting voter support for Yoon and the governing party.
"There is little reason for Xi to expedite the summit for Yoon's domestic political use," Kim said, adding that China will be closely watching the parliamentary election results to adjust its stance accordingly.
Then South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin, center, poses with his Japanese and Chinese couterparts Yoko Kamikawa, left, and Wang Yi, ahead of a trilateral meeting at Nurimaru APEC House in Busan, Nov. 26, 2023. Yonhap
Another variable in South Korea-China ties could be North Korea's increasing military threats, experts said. The Kim Jong-un regime ushered in the New Year with fresh threats of war and labeled South Korea as its "principal enemy."
"If North Korea provokes, there could be more obstacles, as moves South Korea makes to defend its territory could be perceived as a threat by China," Yun said.
Seoul has been urging China to play a constructive role in addressing North Korea's nuclear threats, but Beijing has been hesitant to do so.
"I don't expect any dramatic shift in its current stance," Kang said. "However, if Pyongyang engages in provocations that China perceives as crossing the red line, such as a seventh nuclear test, it could take action."