Trump summit can change course of denuclearization talks

By Yi Whan-woo

The scheduled summit between President Moon Jae-in and U.S. Donald Trump next week is anticipated to be a turning point for the U.S.-North Korea nuclear negotiations that have been in a stalemate, according to analysts, Friday.

Moon will give trump details of his summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Pyongyang when he meets him, Sept. 25, on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly in New York. Kim will not attend the Assembly.

The President said he will also discuss with Trump the possibility of declaring an end to the 1950-53 Korean War, something repeatedly sought by North Korea in return for denuclearization.

Washington has been reluctant to declare the end of the war until after Pyongyang abandons its nuclear arsenal. But Moon has something that Trump may find tempting ― a message from Kim that was not disclosed during the Pyongyang summit.

Kim, through Moon, is likely to list all the additional denuclearization measures he is willing to carry out, if the U.S. takes corresponding measures.

Among the possible measures mentioned in the joint statement between leaders of the two Koreas was the permanent dismantlement of the North's nuclear facilities at Yongbyon.

“Trump may possibly find Kim's message tempting and go for a declaration of the end of the war. This may dramatically change the course of U.S.-North Korea talks on denuclearization,” said Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies.

He speculated that the North may allow International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors to enter the country and scrutinize its nuclear program sites.

“North Korea has been seen as untrustworthy because it has remained reclusive and deceptive, but international nuclear inspections can certainly change everything,” he said.

Kim Hyun-wook, a professor at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy, said there was a 50 percent chance that Trump would go for a declaration to end the Korean War.

“It's doubtful whether Trump will accept such a declaration in return for dismantling the Yongbyon nuclear facilities. North Korea has to do better than that,” he said.

Kim pointed out that the U.S. has stepped up nuclear sanctions on North Korea even after it closed its Punggye-ri main nuclear test site in May.

“Taking this into account, whether Kim's message includes accepting international nuclear inspectors will be the key to convince Trump,” he said.

The experts said Trump is likely to demand denuclearization measures to begin before the midterm elections, Nov. 6, to woo voters.

Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong-ho will meet ― also on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly ― Sept. 26.

Ri is most likely to brief Pompeo about the Moon-Kim summit. But they could also resume extensive nuclear talks and coordinate details depending on the outcome of the South Korea-U.S. summit, according to the analysts.

Commenting on North Korea's conditional offer to dismantle its Yongbyon nuclear facilities, the U.S. Department of State said Thursday that denuclearization must come before concessions.

“I think I'd just go back to what I've said about that very issue before, and that nothing can happen in the absence of denuclearization,” spokeswoman Heather Nauert said during a regular press briefing. “Denuclearization has to come first.”

Regarding possible IAEA inspections in North Korea, she said that was “just a shared understanding” among countries.

“Anytime you have a nuclear situation like this where there is dismantlement, the expectation is that IAEA inspectors would be a part of that. So that would just be a normal course of doing business. We have that shared understanding with the countries,” she said.