By Yi Whan-woo
The government appears to have no effective tools to protect Korean businesses from mounting Chinese retaliation against the deployment of a U.S. anti-missile system here, leaving the private sector bleeding.
When the Park Geun-hye administration signed a deal with the United States last July on the deployment of a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) unit, it said it had effective measures to deal with China.
However, this is now being proven an empty promise as China is taking a full range of retaliatory measures unilaterally.
Analysts said Sunday that the government was too optimistic about how China would react to the deployment of the THAAD battery, and was largely unprepared for its possible punitive measures.
China’s measures are now taking a toll on Korea’s tourism, trade and entertainment businesses. Beijing even tightened visa rules for South Koreans and prohibited K-pop stars from appearing on Chinese TV shows.
China also has not discussed THAAD-related issues with Prime Minister and acting President Hwang Kyo-ahn, while inviting opposition lawmakers who are aligned against THAAD to Beijing in January.
“Our government still focused on bringing the THAAD battery in a hurry and paid little attention to placating Beijing,” said Park Won-gon, an international relations professor at Handong Global University.
Kim Yong-hyun, a professor of North Korean Studies at Dongguk University, echoed a similar view.
“The government continued to push ahead in installing the THAAD system while failing to consult with China sufficiently.”
The professor pointed out that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned Chinese Ambassador to South Korea Qiu Guohong only in January after Beijing banned chartered flights services linking the two countries in December.
Before January, Hwang had said Korea’s economy is “something China cannot easily retaliate on.”
Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se also had said, “The Chinese government did not mention economic retaliation against us and did not hint at it, either.”
During a KBS interview, Sunday, Yun then admitted, “The Chinese government appears to be behind the travel ban to South Korea.”
He also said Seoul is monitoring Beijing’s measures closely.
Deputy Prime Minister and Strategy and Finance Minister Yoo Il-ho did not rule out China’s retaliation in July but still had said, “All-out retaliation is almost impossible considering China is a member of the World Trade Organization.”
Trade Minister Joo Hyung-hwan, who is visiting the United States, said the government will ”act accordingly to international law against any actions” that violate policies of the WTO or the free trade agreement between South Korea and China, according to the ministry.
The experts speculated that the leadership vacuum following impeachment of President Park Geun-hye is also a reason that China has been intensifying retaliation.
“The opposition parties have been asking to reconsider THAAD deployment and Beijing seems to believe it can scrap the deployment plan if it continues to press South Korea and court the opposition presidential candidates,” Park Won-gon said. “China is unlikely to engage in talks with Hwang and wait until the next government comes in.”
Yun said Sunday he asked Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to take “relevant measures” concerning Beijing’s retaliation. “It is against Chinese President Xi Jin-ping’s opposition toward trade protectionism,” Yun added.
But analysts remained skeptical the diplomatic conflict with China will be easily resolved. They pointed out that South Korean and U.S. defense ministries promised to deploy THAAD at the earliest date possible between May and July.
“I don’t think we can convince China to stop being hostile to us for the time being,” Park Won-gon said. “It would be rather better for us to be united concerning the THAAD issue instead of standing against its deployment.”
Meanwhile, diplomatic sources said U.S Secretary of State Rex Tillerson may mediate the THAAD dispute during his East Asia tour slated for March 17.
He is expected to travel to Japan first and visit South Korea and China later. This will be Tillerson’s first trip to the region as U.S. President Donald Trump’s secretary of state.
“If Tillerson strongly demands Beijing to stop its retaliation against Seoul, it may bring a breakthrough in South Korea’s diplomatic conflict with China,” a source said.