Exports expected to remain solid in Q4 following US tariff deal: think tank
President Lee Jae Myung, right, shakes hands with U.S. President Donald Trump during a dinner banquet for state leaders participating in this year's summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum at the Hilton Hotel in the southeastern city of Gyeongju, Oct. 29. Yonhap
Korea's exports are expected to remain solid in the fourth quarter, supported by strong semiconductor demand and limited impact from U.S. tariff measures following a recent agreement, a state-run research institute said Friday.
Exports, a key driver of Asia's fourth-largest economy, are projected to reach around $175 billion in the October-December period, matching the level recorded a year earlier, according to the Overseas Economic Research Institute under the Export-Import Bank of Korea (Eximbank).
For the full year of 2025, exports are forecast to rise 1.7 percent year-on-year to about $695 billion, it added.
The institute attributed the outlook to rising semiconductor prices since the third quarter, better-than-expected economic performance in major export markets and increased machinery orders stemming from major defense contracts.
In October, exports rose 3.6 percent year-on-year to $59.57 billion, marking year-on-year growth for the fifth consecutive month, though shipments to the U.S. fell 16.2 percent to $8.71 billion due mainly to tariff effects.
"The risk of export declines appears limited following the conclusion of tariff negotiations with the United States," the institute said in a report.
Last week, Seoul and Washington reached an agreement on the details of their framework tariff deal signed in July, which calls for Korea's $350 billion investment in the U.S. in exchange for Washington lowering "reciprocal" tariffs from 25 percent to 15 percent.
Under the latest agreement, Korea would invest $200 billion in cash in the U.S., with annual investments capped at $20 billion, while the remaining $150 billion would be allocated to bilateral shipbuilding cooperation projects.