Nam Hyun-woo has worked as a staff writer at The Korea Times since 2013, mostly covering business and politics. He currently belongs to the Business Desk where he covers topics such as emerging tech, AI, ICT and Korea's chaebol community. Prior to joining the team, he was the paper's correspondent for the presidential office of Korea during the Yoon Suk Yeol and Moon Jae-in administrations.
Will Samsung's chip recovery momentum extend to HBM?
Samsung Electronics' 12-high (high-bandwidth memory 3E) / Courtesy of Samsung Electronics
By Nam Hyun-woo
Timing of HBM3E supply, cost of HBM4 to determine memory recovery
Samsung Electronics’ semiconductor business is showing signs of recovery with back-to-back foundry orders from big U.S. tech firms, and market attention is now focused on whether the momentum will carry over to its flagship memory chip business.
Industry officials say the first turning point for recovery in Samsung’s memory business will be its timeline for supplying high-bandwidth memory 3E (HBM3E) chips for Nvidia’s artificial intelligence (AI) accelerators, followed by its ability to gain an edge over rivals in the upcoming HBM4 race.
Initially, Samsung sought to pass Nvidia’s qualification for its 12-high HBM3E in the third quarter of this year and begin mass production within the same three-month period. However, multiple analysts see a possibility of delays.
Morgan Stanley said in a recent report that Samsung is expected to complete the qualification for 12-high HBM3E by late August and begin mass production for Nvidia in the fourth quarter. UBS Group also projected that Samsung will likely pass the qualification in the fourth quarter and start shipments then.
“The company also mentioned that it expects its HBM3E sales mix to reach high-90 percent levels in the second half of this year, which we believe implies a full-scale shipment of its HBM3E 12-high to major customers,” Goldman Sachs said in a recent report.
These views trigger anticipation that Samsung’s 12-high HBM3E supply could be limited because the chip has already entered a mature stage in the market, while rivals such as SK hynix and Micron have already secured much of the available demand.
Against this backdrop, Samsung appears to be increasing its supply even at a cost price decline. During its earnings call on July 31, the company said it plans to “significantly increase” HBM3E sales in the second half compared with the first, adding that “the supply increase will likely outpace demand growth, and is expected to affect market prices for the time being.”
SK Securities analyst Han Dong-hee said that the market “is already taking the entry of competitors (Samsung) for granted,” adding that it will be difficult for SK hynix, which currently holds a dominant position in the HBM3E market, to further increase its share.
Samsung Electronics plant in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi Province / Korea Times photo by Ha Sang-yun
The next possible turning point for Samsung will be the supply of HBM4, as the chip is expected to become the mainstream for Nvidia’s next-generation AI processor, Rubin, in 2026.
Samsung said during the earnings call that it has “completed the development of HBM4 products and the transition to the 1c DRAM (dynamic random-access memory) process, and shipped samples to key customers.”
Industry officials assume that the company shipped its 12-high HBM4 samples to Nvidia last month, with engineering samples scheduled for later this month and customer samples for November. The final product qualification for major clients is expected to take shape by February next year.
Since SK hynix completed sample shipments in March and recently finished initial volume agreements with Nvidia, Samsung is moving at a slower pace, but the company believes it can catch up with the 1c process.
While rivals have adopted the 1b DRAM process, Samsung is developing its HBM4 chips using the more advanced and finer 1c process. The 1c process refers to the sixth-generation manufacturing process within the 10-nanometer class, which is divided into six stages — 1x, 1y, 1z, 1a, 1b and 1c. The progress reflects finer node dimensions.
“By adopting advanced process technology, Samsung is expected to have an opportunity to address long-standing concerns over speed and heat specifications, a change that could increase the chances of success for its HBM business,” Daishin Securities analyst Ryu Hyung-keun said.
However, concerns still remain for the 1c process, as transitioning to the more advanced technology comes with costs.
To ensure the timely supply of HBM4 in 2026, Samsung is investing in 1c DRAM facilities and carrying out migration work at its lines in Pyeongtaek and Hwaseong, Gyeonggi Province.
“Samsung is working to improve performance and reliability through the adoption of its latest process technology, but possible expansion of redundancy (preventive measures in case of design flaws) in the 1c process and increased investments will likely make it inevitable for Samsung to face increased costs,” SK Securities’ Han said.