Minerva Predicts Mini-Property Bubble in Seoul
By Kim Tae-gyu
Staff Reporter
A noted self-taught economist in Korea, who was once arrested on charges of spreading false rumors but later acquitted, predicts a mini-bubble in the Seoul property market this year.
Park Dae-sung, better known by his pen name, "Minerva," said Thursday that rich liquidity will end up causing an upsurge of real estate prices in Seoul.
"Apartment values in Seoul and the surrounding areas are likely to rise to double-digit rates late this year as ample liquidity creates bubbles in the property market," Park said. "The range will be between 10 percent and 15 percent to generate a mini-bubble. In other areas, however, real estate prices will remain flat, by and large."
The aftermath of the mini-bubble might be different depending on the government's policies and global economic recovery, according to Park.
"We may experience different paths beyond 2010. Since there are many factors to be determined, it is difficult to project what will lie ahead next year accurately," he said.
Park basked in the spotlight last year, emerging out of nowhere as an Internet commentator on economic issues both at home and abroad.
His piercing insight helped him forecast the collapse of Lehman Brothers last September and the sharp depreciation of the Korean won late last year.
Park had wished to remain anonymous, but events did not evolve in that direction as the law enforcement authorities stepped in.
The 31-year-old was apprehended early this year on charges of circulating rumors that the Seoul administration had forced local banks to stop buying dollars last December in a bid to stem the won's fall.
He was eventually vindicated by the court in April, although the prosecution appealed the decision. The court action is highly likely to continue for several years.
After the arrest, Park initially stopped writing, but has resumed work of late by contributing to a local daily and a monthly. He plans to publish a book in the near future.
Park has also opened up a blog at www.ml.or.kr based on a Textcube platform run by Google Korea. He has yet to post any write-ups but he his looking to put his work on the blog soon.