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Thu, June 8, 2023 | 06:52
Science
Doomsday in 2032?
2032년이 지구 종말의 해?
Posted : 2013-10-21 15:28
Updated : 2013-10-21 15:28
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 The meteorite that flew close to Earth last month might return in 19 years and collide with us. / Courtesy of Corbis
The meteorite that flew close to Earth last month might return in 19 years and collide with us. / Courtesy of Corbis
By Lee Kyung-min

The meteorite that flew close to Earth last month might return in 19 years and collide with us, RIA Novosti said Oct. 17.

The 411-meter meteorite – which the Crimean Astrophysical Observatory in southern Ukraine named "2013 TV135" –, passed Earth at a distance of 676,000 kilometers, which is 17 times the distance from Earth to the moon.

Astrophysicists say the chance of Earth being hit is very low at 63,000 to one.

But if the meteorite did hit Earth, the impact would be 50 times that of the atomic bomb dropped in Hiroshima during World War II.

Ukrainian scientists said they would be better able to estimate the meteorite's orbit in 2028. However, in its recent "Reality Check report, NASA disputed the Ukrainian estimate saying it is 99.998 percent sure the meteorite will not hit the Earth.

According to the Torino Scale, which estimates asteroid impact hazards, 2013 TV135 has a one out of 10 rating – one being the minimal risk and 10 the maximum.

Only one other asteroid has the same rating, with collision risks for all others being "effectively zero," according to NASA's Near Earth Object Program.






2032년이 지구 종말의 해?

지난달 지구를 비켜간 소행성(운석)이 19년 뒤에 다시 돌아와 지구와 충돌할 가능성이 있다는 관측이 제기됐다.

    우크라이나 천문학자들이 처음 발견해 '2013 TV135'로 명명한 411m(1천350피트) 길이의 이 소행성은 지난달 16일 지구에서 676만㎞(420만마일) 떨어진 지점을 통과했다. 676만㎞는 지구에서 달까지 거리의 약 17배에 해당한다.     이와 관련, 남부 우크라이나에 있는 크리미언천문대의 학자들은 이 소행성이 2032년 8월26일 다시 지구 옆을 지나게 될 것으로 전망했다고 RIA 노보스티 통신이 최근 보도했다.

    지구와 충돌할 확률은 6만3천분의 1로 지극히 낮은 편이지만, 만약 충돌한다면 위력이 TNT 2천500메가톤으로 2차대전 당시 일본 히로시마에 떨어진 원자폭탄의 50배가 넘을 것으로 학자들은 내다봤다.

    우크라이나 학자들은 2028년이 되면 이 소행성의 궤도를 더욱 정확하게 예측할 수 있을 것이라고 덧붙였다.

    그러나 미국 항공우주국(NASA)은 이 소행성이 특별한 위협이 되지는 않는다는 입장을 밝혔다.  

    다시 지구로 돌아와도 충돌하지 않고 비켜갈 것으로 99.998% 확신하며 크기 역시 그다지 우려하지 않아도 된다는 것이다.

    NASA 측은 성명에서 소행성의 잠재적 위협을 측정하는 '토리노 충격 위험 규모'의 10단계에서 이 소행성의 위험등급은 1에 해당한다며 '1은 대중이 걱정하지 않아도 되는 등급'이라고 설명했다.

    성명은 이어 '크기가 1∼2㎞를 넘는다면 지구 전체에 충격을 줄 수 있지만 이 소행성은 그보다 작다'고 강조했다고 현지 언론이 20일 전했다.

 
Emaillkm@koreatimes.co.kr Article ListMore articles by this reporter
 
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