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Fri, February 3, 2023 | 22:54
Companies
Stronger won to have limited impact on exporters
흔들리는 환율에 수출업계 '긴장'
Posted : 2014-04-10 19:09
Updated : 2014-04-10 21:12
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By Choi Kyong-ae

The won's recent jump in value against the dollar will have a limited impact on Korea's exports and the national economy, currency analysts said Thursday.

On Wednesday, the U.S. dollar finished at 1,041.4 won, the highest level in five years and eight months. Robust exports of smartphones and solid economic fundamentals helped push up the value of the Korean currency, data from Samsung Futures showed.

"As Korea's major manufacturers such as Samsung Electronics and Hyundai Motor have increased their overseas production, they are today less exposed to currency swings as they were in the past," Samsung Futures foreign-exchange analyst Jeon Seung-ji said by telephone.

Currently, Samsung produces more than 70 percent of its cellphones outside of Korea. Hyundai makes more than 50 percent of its vehicles overseas.

Woori Futures currency analyst Son Eun-jung said that lower import prices of raw materials could help major exporters offset a decline in dollar-denominated profits earned overseas when converted into the local currency.

The Korean government has intervened in the foreign-exchange market to stem the won's rapid appreciation against the dollar. The move helped the won stay above the 1,050 won level from Aug. 20 2008 until Wednesday. On Aug. 20, the dollar ended at 1,049.25 won. A lower number represents a stronger won.

On Thursday, a day after the won's sharp gain, government officials said the ongoing volatility was not desirable and they will keep a close eye on currency movement.

"It is not good for the economy if the exchange rates move in this volatile way over a short period of time. So we will be closely monitoring capital flow by foreigners and overall transactions in the markets," Choi Hee-nam, director general of the International Finance Bureau at the Ministry of Strategy and Finance, said in a text message.

Choi's message was echoed by Bank of Korea Governor Lee Ju-yeol. Their remarks helped the dollar close at 1,040.2 won later Thursday after falling to 1,031.4 won during the earlier part of trading.

But analysts said it was unexpected that the Bank of Korea allowed such a drastic jump in the value of the won. They said pressure from the U.S. made the central bank remain temporarily inactive.

"In its recent foreign-exchange report, the U.S. government urged Korea to seek growth less based on exports and the depreciation of the won against major currencies, which include the dollar," Son at Woori Futures said.

Whether the won continues to rise depends on the "attitude of the Seoul authorities" and the dollar's weakness going forward, she said. The dollar currently remains weak despite the continued U.S. bond-buying programs.

Driven by investors' growing appetite for riskier assets in emerging markets, the dollar is likely to continue to fall against the won for the time being, analysts said. But they didn't expect the dollar to fall below 1,000 won on increasing investments in overseas assets.

Meanwhile, the broader KOSPI index ended at 2008.61 Thursday, up 0.48 percent from a session earlier. It broke the 2000 level for the first time in 100 days since Dec. 30 when the benchmark index closed at 2011.34.

Foreigners continued to buy domestic stocks valued at 1.14 trillion won from March 26 through April 8, giving a boost to the index, Jeon said.


흔들리는 환율에 수출업계 '긴장'

한동안 잠잠하던 외환시장이 다시 요동치면서 수출기업들이 긴장하고 있다.

지속되는 세계경기 침체로 가뜩이나 경영 여건이 나빠진 상황에서 환율 하락에 따른 수출 단가 상승은 기업들의 대외 경쟁력을 떨어뜨릴 수 있기 때문이다.

9일 원·달러 환율은 전날보다 10.8원 떨어져 국제 금융위기 직전인 2008년 8월 중순 이후 5년8개월 만에 가장 낮은 1,041.4원에 거래를 마쳤다.

환율 급락을 유발할 만한 대외 악재가 부각된 것은 없었으나, 3년여간 지지선으로 인식돼온 1,050원 선을 하향돌파하면서 낙폭이 커진 것으로 분석됐다.

이 여파로 이날 주식시장에서는 대표 수출기업인 삼성전자, 현대차, 기아차 등의 주가가 일제히 약세를 나타냈다.

환율은 지난해도 수익성 악화를 가져오고 경영상의 불확실성을 키워 주요 수출기업들의 발목을 잡는 주된 악재로 작용했다.

지난해 역대 최고 실적을 거둔 삼성전자조차 평소 환율 변동에 대한 다양한 대책을 마련해두고 있음에도 환율 하락의 충격이 작지 않았다.

삼성전자는 지난해 4분기에 원화 강세로 영업이익이 7천억원 감소하는 부정적 영향이 있었다고 밝혔다.

특히 완성차 업계는 원·달러 환율 급락에 긴장을 감추지 못하고 있다.

일시적인 환율 변동은 큰 타격을 주지 않지만 환율 하락이 장기적으로 지속한다면 매출과 수익 규모가 덩달아 줄어드는 등 경영에 적신호가 켜지기 때문이다.

특히 엔저 현상이 이어지면서 세계 자동차 시장에서 일본 업체들과의 경쟁 조건이 불리해진 상황에서 원·달러 환율 하락은 엎친 데 덮친 격의 상황을 빚을 수 있다.

현대·기아차의 수출 비중은 75∼80%에 달한다. 이 때문에 원·달러 환율이 10원 떨어지면 매출액이 2천억원(현대차 1천200억원, 기아차 800억원) 감소하는 영향을 받는다.

이에 따라 수출 기업들은 환율 추이에 촉각을 곤두세우며 서둘러 대책을 모색하는 분위기다.

업계의 한 관계자는 '최근 환율 하락에는 경상수지 흑자 지속과 외국인 주식 투자자금 유입이 영향을 미친 것으로 보인다'며 '환율 하락세가 지난해처럼 이어진다면 수출 기업들에는 부담이 될 것'이라고 말했다.
Emailcka@koreatimes.co.kr Article ListMore articles by this reporter
 
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