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Sat, February 4, 2023 | 17:20
Companies
'Swift action to Argentine contagion'
정부 "신흥국 불안 예상보다 빨라…韓실물 영향 우려"
Posted : 2014-01-29 15:31
Updated : 2014-01-29 15:31
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Hyun Oh-seokFinance minister
Hyun Oh-seok
Finance minister
By Choi Kyong-ae

Korea will be quick to respond to any market volatility amid escalating worries that a shift in U.S. monetary policy could further hit emerging markets.

"We are taking swift and drastic action against any volatility in the domestic financial market as several emerging economies are already showing signs of instability," Finance Minister Hyun Oh-seok said in a meeting with economic policymakers, Wednesday.

Emerging markets such as Argentina and Turkey have seen the value of their currencies plummet amid concerns that the U.S. Federal Reserve may further scale down its multi-billion-dollar stimulus program.

The minister warned that the Fed's tapering could prompt investors to withdraw their capital from emerging markets in pursuit of higher returns in the U.S. as tapering will drive up interest rates offered by financial institutions there.

To minimize any repercussions, Hyun said, "We are keeping a watchful eye on fundamentally-weak emerging markets such as Argentina and Turkey because their instability could last some time or take a turn for the worse spilling over into other relatively-solid emerging economies."

He said the government will "strengthen efforts to help the reviving economy stay unscathed from external risks."

There is little doubt the flight to safety from emerging economies could be a heavy blow particularly to markets already struggling with currency volatility.

The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee ends today with a decision on its bond-buying program. Korea's stock market won't open on Thursday and Friday due to the Lunar New Year holidays.

Stock trading fell to 3.85 trillion won ($3.6 billion) in value for the whole month of January, down 585 billion won from a year earlier, according to the Korea Exchange.

But the minister said the current volatility in some emerging markets would have a "limited" impact on the Korean market due to its solid fundamentals which include increased foreign-exchange reserves and current account surplus.

Meanwhile, the minister renewed the government's commitment to achieving an employment rate of 70 percent.

"To achieve the employment target, the government will make efforts to narrow the gap between regular and temporary workers in terms of wages and welfare benefits, while seeking to promote employment for young people," Hyun said. "Moreover it will also help women who quit their jobs due to marriage and other reasons get a job and help them achieve a balance between work and family."

The government will soon release detailed measures to support young and women jobseekers, he added.


정부 "신흥국 불안 예상보다 빨라…韓실물 영향 우려"

가계부채, 지방선거 등 대내여건도 좋지 않아

한달만에 원·달러 환율 30원, CDS프리미엄 20bp 급상승

 

회복기를 맞은 한국경제에 연초부터 먹구름이 밀려오고 있다.

대외적으로는 미 양적완화 축소(테이퍼링)로 아르헨티나 등 신흥국 경제에 대한 불안감이 커지고 중국, 일본 등 주변국에 대한 경계감이 높아지고 있다.

한국의 부도위험지표(CDS 프리미엄)는 한 달여 만에 20bp(1bp=0.01%)나 뛰어올랐다. 원·달러 환율도 한달만에 30원 상승했다.

정부와 전문가들은 대외여건 불안이 이제 '시작단계'라는데 의견을 같이했다. 정부는 이번 불안이 금융 뿐 아니라 수출 등 실물경제로 이어질 가능성이 크다고 보고 정책대응을 강화키로 했다.

기획재정부 고위 관계자는 28일 '올해 신흥국시장의 둔화 가능성 등 세계경제의 대전환이 진행될 것으로 예상했지만 신흥국 시장의 불안이 생각보다 빨리 오고 있다'고 진단했다.

이 관계자는 '대외 불안은 지금이 출발점이어서 여파가 얼마나 깊고 넓게 퍼질지 아무도 모른다'며 '특히 이번에는 지금까지의 대외불안요인과 달리 수출 등 한국경제의 실물에 직접적인 영향을 줄 수 있어 긴장하고 있다'고 강조했다.

아르헨티나발 신흥국 시장불안은 이미 전 세계 금융시장에 악영향을 미치고 있다.

아르헨티나의 페소화 가치는 외환보유고 급감, 30%에 달하는 인플레이션 등으로 23일에만 11.7% 급락했고 러시아, 터키, 멕시 등의 화폐가치도 사상 최저치 수준까지 떨어졌다.

이로 인해 지난 주말 미국과 유럽증시는 2%대의 낙폭을 기록했으며 한국과 일본, 중국의 주가는 27일 일제히 하락했다. 아르헨티나, 터키, 남아공, 인도네시아 등 주요 신흥국의 CDS 가산금리도 줄줄이 올랐다.

문제는 앞으로다. 예상대로 미 연방준비제도(연준)가 오는 29일 연방공개시장위원회(FOMC) 정례회의에서 양적완화 추가 축소를 단행하면 신흥시장에서의 자금이탈은 더욱 가속화할 전망이다.

위기가 아르헨티나 한 곳에 그친다면 걱정할 일이 아니지만 주변국 또는 한국의 수출 의존도가 큰 동남아시아 등으로 확산하면 수출 등 실물시장의 충격은 불가피하다. 작년 아세안지역으로의 수출은 597억 달러로 전체의 10.7%를 차지했다.

신민영 LG경제연구원 연구위원은 '심상치 않다. 브라질, 터키 등으로 위기가 확산되면 한국경제도 충격을 피할 수 없다'고 말했다.

재정건전성, 외환보유고, 경상수지 흑자 행진 등으로 아직까지 다른 신흥국에 비해 낫다고는 하나 한국경제의 상황도 좋지만은 않다.

한국 정부의 외국환평형기금채권(5년물)에 대한 CDS 프리미엄은 작년 12월 18일 55bp로 2008년 금융위기 이후 최저치를 찍은 뒤 27일 74bp까지 치솟았다.

작년말 대비 변동폭은 +8bp로 일본(14), 중국(25), 브라질(18), 러시아(22) 등보다 적지만 안심할 단계는 아니라는 것이다.

지난 2일 장중 한때 달러당 1,050원이 무너졌지만 원화는 한 달도 채 안돼 1,083.6원(27일 종가기준)으로 껑충 뛰는 등 불안한 장세를 연출하고 있다.

정부는 일단 국제금융시장 동향에 대한 모니터링을 강화하면서 거시건전성 3종 세트를 중심으로 대응력을 높이고 중소 수출기업에 대한 지원책 확대 등 정책적 대응을 모색할 예정이다.

게다가 한국경제는 대내적으로 1천조원에 달하는 가계부채, 한계기업, 취약업종 자금난 등 민간 부문의 건전성 악화가 심각하고 이로인해 내수시장이 침체를 벗어나지 못하고 있다.

6월로 다가온 지방선거, 여야간 정쟁 등도 경제회복을 가로막는 걸림돌이다.

전성인 홍익대 경제학과 교수는 '대외경제가 불안한 와중에 대내적 악재인 개인신용정보 문제, 지방선거를 앞둔 무차별적 개발공약, 부동산 과열 문제 등까지 심화되면 부정적 시너지 효과를 내서 경제에 치명적인 문제가 생길 수 있다'고 우려했다.

 

 
Emailcka@koreatimes.co.kr Article ListMore articles by this reporter
 
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