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Tue, October 16, 2018 | 15:45

Opinion > Columnists > Lee Seong-hyon >

Kim's olive branch and US

North Korea's Kim offered a rare peace overture. Washington should be careful not to make the usual mistake of tossing the ball over to Beijing.

Lee Seong-hyon | 2018-01-09 18:30

Sino-U.S. relations in 2018

The U.S.-China relationship in 2018 will face turbulence. China, whose power has been rising for the past 40 years, had been using slogans such as “tao guang yang hui” (to hide ambitions and disguise claws and “heping jueqi” (peaceful rise), to avoid the appearance of challenging the United States. Xi Jinping is the first Chinese leader since Deng Xiaoping to modify the strategy.

Lee Seong-hyon | 2017-12-26 16:57

China's key positions on North Korea

President Moon Jae-in and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping will hold a summit this week in Beijing, and North Korea will be one of the major topics for them to discuss. Here are some of China's key positions, based on recent conversations with Chinese interlocutors.

Lee Seong-hyon | 2017-12-12 16:52

Chinese envoy's visit to Pyongyang

China sent a qualified envoy to Pyongyang. The problem was that the envoy was “minimally” qualified. North Korea knew it was a test. The North Korean leader let Xi's envoy “wait around” for four days, causing him much anxiety, and yet never showed up to see him. Many Chinese took this as an insult. Such feelings, however, may be unwarranted. The envoy, after all, fulfilled his mission well, meeting with North Korean officials appropriate to his rank. Meeting Kim, though, is another realm.

Lee Seong-hyon | 2017-11-28 17:55

Possibility of China-North Korea summit

There is a growing interest in whether changes will occur in relations between North Korea and China as the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China is over. China-North Korea relations have stagnated in recent years. Nevertheless, there are a few indications for this prospect not to be ignored. If the summit between the top leaders of Beijing and Pyongyang is held, it will render a very significant new variable in geopolitics in the region. Seoul and Washington should be prepared for this contingency.

Lee Seong-hyon | 2017-11-14 17:08

Trump and the decline of U.S. image

No doubt, Trump will be showered with uncommon hospitality in South Korea when he visits here next week. The robustness of the bilateral alliance and the resilience of shared democratic values will be underscored, not to mention their firm deterrence posture against North Korea’s belligerence. That hides the underneath simmering debate and uneasiness about President Donald Trump and the way he handles the North Korean issue.

Lee Seong-hyon | 2017-10-31 17:35

Trump's silence on THAAD retaliation

The Trump administration has so far shown little regard for South Korea’s suffering from the Chinese economic retaliation for hosting THAAD. Whether it is due to a lack of awareness at Capitol Hill or simply being a spectator who “watches a fire across the river,” Washington’s failure to show solidarity with its ally and recognition of the latter’s distress is quietly hurting U.S. standing in the region. Due to China’s retaliation over THAAD, South Korea’s economy may suffer as much as an 8.5 trillion won ($7.5 billion) loss in 2017, according to estimates by Hyundai Research Institute.

Lee Seong-hyon | 2017-10-17 17:18

Washington and Beijing's options on North Korea

North Korea’s sixth nuclear test is seen by many as a “watershed” moment. If so, will Washington and Beijing’s calculus on North Korea change accordingly? Not likely, for the short term. At this time, the United States will likely continue its “maximum pressure” on North Korea, with harsher sanctions. For China, it will try to “manage” the situation, by its usual appeal for “calm” on all sides. In short, Washington and Beijing are not likely to diverge much from their preexisting preferences for the status quo. This is bad. But they think other options are worse. Despite the North’s latest a...

Lee Seong-hyon | 2017-09-05 17:56

Is Sino-N. Korea alliance more resilient than ROK-US alliance?

Last time, we examined why China has never officially proposed to abolish or abandon its alliance with North Korea, since 1961. We also looked at why China also makes pains not to draw attention to it. When comparing the China-North Korea alliance with the South Korea-U.S. alliance, one also finds, surprisingly, that the North Korea-China alliance was “designed,” from the beginning, to be very difficult to break than the alliance between South Korea and the U.S. In the case of the South Korea-U.S. alliance, the treaty would be simply terminated if either side makes notifications of such inte...

Lee Seong-hyon | 2017-08-22 17:45

Are N. Korea and China still allies?

The news story that the Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping underscored China's "blood alliance" with North Korea in his meeting with President Moon Jae-in is still generating a flurry of speculation in the public sphere. Whether Xi really used the particular word at the G-20 summit is one thing, but what is more important is whether Pyongyang and Beijing can be still defined as allies in this 21st century? And from an analytical perspective, the answer is yes. According to Cheong Wa Dae, Xi said, “China has maintained a blood alliance with North Korea. There have been many changes, ye...

Lee Seong-hyon | 2017-08-08 17:50

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