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Fri, October 20, 2017 | 14:11

Opinion > Columnists > Lee Seong-hyon >

Best way for Trump to persuade China to up the pressure on North Korea

Trump’s expression of willingness to meet with Kim Jong-un, essentially, should be seen as his signal to China, rather than to Kim. Trump’s North Korean policy, despite his harsh criticism of Obama’s handling of Pyongyang, is the same as Obama’s: to outsource the North Korean problem to China to solve. It won’t work. The U.S. and China don’t share enough strategic trust in East Asia, as evidenced by their discord on THAAD. Trump’s best strategy on North Korea is to make China less relevant in the game and enact his diplomatic rhetoric into action; meet Kim over hamburger.

Lee Seong-hyon | 2017-05-02 17:34

China may regard North Korea as a tacit 'core-interest'

Resting on observations on China’s diplomatic behavior with North Korea, a theory can be entertained to state that China may regard North Korea as an unspoken “core interest.” If this theory holds ground, then it would indicate that Donald Trump’s ongoing artful deal-making outreach to Xi Jinping, so as to invite Xi to serve as a “hitman” on Pyongyang, is bound not to materialize. The extended larger implications may be profoundly disturbing for the future of a Sino-U.S. strategic relationship. According to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), "core interest" is the highest level of national i...

Lee Seong-hyon | 2017-04-18 16:47

Trump's 'without-China' approach on North Korea

Donald Trump’s warning that he would deal with North Korea “with or without China’s help” may in fact have a chance to succeed as a viable new alternative. It reflects a judgement on China’s role on the matter and hints at shifting to a “plan B.” It is disempowering China from its “larger-than-role” stake on the international policy narrative on North Korea. Solving the North Korean conundrum with the U.S. initiative would mean sustaining U.S. leadership and enlarging U.S. interests in the region where the two major powers are increasingly more competing against each other. Trump did not spe...

Lee Seong-hyon | 2017-04-04 17:29

Why Moon is likely 'bad moon' for China

It appears THAAD is set to continue to be deployed in South Korea, despite China’s vociferous protests, economic retaliation, and state-mobilized “voluntary” boycotts of Korean products. Against the Chinese pressure and overbearing attitude that reminds Koreans of the old Chinese empire that had treated Korea as a vassal state, the anti-China sentiment in South Korea is rising, Seoul and Washington are expediting the THAAD deployment, and the Korea-U.S. alliance is strengthening. This all goes against Chinese strategic calculations. In addition, the likely next South Korean president is like...

Lee Seong-hyon | 2017-03-21 17:47

China's THAAD strategy

South Korea should buckle up for a long, arduous ride against China’s tidy incremental economic pressure to backpedal on THAAD. China will continue to ratchet up its “economic card” as the primary means to inject pain into South Korea’s economic bloodstream because it proved very effective in making other countries surrender. China won’t stop, much less pause, because it also believes that there is a real chance for South Korea’s next administration, likely under a progressive president, to reverse the decision. South Korea’s strategists should map out a plan in which its economy can sustain...

Lee Seong-hyon | 2017-03-07 17:15

US starts THAAD deployment in S. Korea

Understanding China's behavioral dynamics on N. Korea

When China makes a certain move on North Korea, by a rule of the thumb, it is not about North Korea. It is about the United States. Grasping and appreciating this psychology is important in engaging China. China announced that it would suspend coal imports from North Korea. Some immediate reaction interpreted it as China’s exasperation about North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s killing of his erstwhile rival brother, Jong-nam, who had been under China’s protection. This interpretation gives immediate gratification to the media-sensationalized tragedy, but is likely to be a misplaced one.

Lee Seong-hyon | 2017-02-21 16:24

Kim Jong-nam had offer to lead N. Korea's government-in-exile

Xi's 'signal diplomacy' with Trump

There has been speculation that U.S. President Donald Trump has been ignoring Chinese Communist leader Xi Jinping. Since his inauguration two weeks ago, Trump has spoken with nearly 20 world leaders on the phone, including acting Korean President Hwang Kyo-ahn. He also spoke with Japan’s Shinzo Abe. Yet he has yet to speak with Xi, the leader of the world’s second largest economy. Xi sent a congratulatory message to Trump. Trump received it, but didn’t respond to it. In an apparent snub, Trump didn’t even return the friendly gesture by arranging a courtesy telephone call with Xi.

Lee Seong-hyon | 2017-02-07 16:12

China-N. Korea ties under Trump

With “Trump America” in place now, one of the areas that the East Asian geopolitical analysts pay attention to is how the Trump variable would enter into Sino-North Korea relations.

Lee Seong-hyon | 2017-01-24 16:21

Taiwan's public diplomacy

South Korea is a latecomer when it comes to public diplomacy. It can learn from Taiwan’s experience, especially its public diplomacy with the United States. It’s a fitting proposition because there is a view that South Korea, under Park Geun-hye, displayed the appearance of “tilting” towards China at the expense of the U.S., its major ally. Meanwhile, the recent phone conversation between U.S. president-elect Donald Trump and Taiwan’s president Tsai Ing-wen was hailed as a victory for Taiwan’s lobby. In fact, it can also be viewed as a victory for Taiwan’s public diplomacy that has had a rob...

Lee Seong-hyon | 2017-01-10 16:24

Chinese journalism 101: seeking truth, not fact

For outside observers, the Chinese media serves as the most common information platform that helps them understand China. Yet it also stands as an area where misunderstandings occur and inaccurate media reports are, surprisingly, common in Korea, due to the differences in the political and societal institutional canopy. Accordingly, there is a great need for research on the characteristics of the Chinese media within the Korean policy community so as to better understand China. Unfortunately, little attention has been paid, partly due to a lack of expertise on the Chinese media and the uniqu...

Lee Seong-hyon | 2016-12-27 16:57

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Lunch with Navy sailors