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Opinion

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China's strategic shift

A very interesting new development in the China-North Korea intrigue happened last week: Xi Jinping began to use North Korea as a negotiating card against the United States in the trade war.

2019-06-25 17:21

Pancreatic cancer and trade war

I gave a talk on the U.S.-China trade war to lawmakers at the National Assembly last week. My host introduced the topic as “timely.” I corrected him. “It's not a timely topic. It's a lot late for us to realize it now and discuss it here. It's like pancreatic cancer. Once you realize something is wrong and go to hospital, the doctor will tell you that you have six months left to live. We have to take the matter seriously, very seriously.”

2019-06-14 17:16

Huawei and Seoul-Beijing-Washington mojo

During the THAAD spat with China, Seoul displayed an indecisive posture, running around in confusion for more than a year. South Korea paid dearly for that.

2019-05-30 17:16

US-China competition

South Korea's diplomacy for the last two years has had only one singular and desperate focus: North Korea. Virtually nothing else. Now, it is completely unprepared for the trade war between the United States and China that is more properly characterized as a component of their bigger rivalry for global leadership. Lacking a guiding principle and national strategy for the big power rivalry, Seoul should buckle up for the tectonic geopolitical ride that will jolt the nation in the years to come.

2019-05-14 17:38

Political engineering of summit

Despite President Donald Trump's personal declaration that he is willing to meet with Kim Jong-un for a third summit, whether and when that will materialize is a fair subject for academic dissection.

2019-04-30 17:28

Kim Jong-un's cave

Existential philosophy teaches that human beings are all caveman. We see the world through our lens, sitting in a cave. Kim Jong-un must be no exception.

2019-04-16 17:05

China to practice 'living without US'

In mid-March, I flew to Hawaii to give a talk at the invitation of the Indo-Pacific Command. From Hawaii, I then flew to Beijing, to meet with Chinese government officials, think tanks, journalists and business people. For a week, I was able to get a sense of the latest update on the U.S.-Chinese trade war. Interesting is the atmosphere in China.

2019-04-02 17:56

Kim Yong-chol and John Bolton

Most pundits say North Korea is making the "same old" bluff. No. Its leader lost face. In a political system like North Korea, that means something extraordinary. That's why we should not brush off North Korea's threat to end negotiation with the U.S. and restart nuclear tests.

2019-03-19 20:20

China's position on summit

The Trump-Kim summit in Vietnam inevitably creates the public impression that the “bottom to top process” doesn't work. The “top to bottom process” doesn't work either. Trump's “art of the deal” proved to be the “art of no deal.” Now what? Let us turn to the Chinese, the descendants of Sun Tzu, a great strategist who penned “The Art of War” 2,500 years ago.

2019-03-05 17:47

NK nukes and 'business logic'

Through social media, a Korean friend of mine working in China in the financial sector asked me about how the second DPRK-U.S. summit and the U.S.-China trade war, respectively, will unfold and what are the likely outcomes. He added that the financial market was acting “as if both the U.S.-China trade war and the DPRK-U.S. negotiation were already resolved.”

2019-02-19 17:05

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