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Tue, October 16, 2018 | 10:52

Opinion > Columnists > Stephen Costello >

In defense of Moon Chung-in

Professor Moon Chung-in has been at this a long time. I met him in Washington at the beginning of the Kim Dae Jung administration almost 20 years ago. We know each other, but have rarely met. I’ve been expecting him to bring a muddled message to Washington, trying to please everyone, but I have been surprised. Moon is making several key points to his US counterparts and audiences. And he is providing a valuable service to his US hosts, helping them to see how South Korea’s new government views it’s and the US’s interests right now. Just as important, he is exposing views among US policy spec...

Stephen Costello | 2017-06-20 17:31

Real hardliners on North Korea

The real hardliners in Korea and the US over the past 20 years have been progressives. The real enablers of North Korean nuclear and missile programs have been conservatives. This is not difficult to figure out. Yet somehow, most journalists and commentators remain in the dark about the meaning of their loaded and revealing word choices. Today they also describe progressive policies as “sympathetic” toward North Korea or appeasement toward China. Now that true hardliners are back in office, at least in South Korea, it’s time to remember why that is. Any definition of “hardline” policy, with ...

Stephen Costello | 2017-06-18 17:33

Senator Durbin, THAAD, and Korea

“It’s my fear that he thinks - I hope I’m wrong - that [Moon] thinks that South Korea has a better chance working with China to contain North Korea than working with the United States,” Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin, D-Ill., told the Washington Examiner. The Examiner is a right-wing conservative paper. They were thrilled to be able to quote a top Democrat criticizing the new progressive South Korean President. Senator Durbin’s view is misplaced, uninformed and counter-productive. It also reveals a misunderstanding of U.S. interests. It is, however, in line with the evolving views among me...

Stephen Costello | 2017-06-12 17:59

Will Moon put Korea first?

For years Korean leaders have been challenged to act with the confidence of a rising middle power. The Moon administration is now facing the same challenge, at a time when both the U.S. and China are seeking to bully it and constrict is flexibility. If Korea succumbs to its ally’s “America First” push, and its neighbor’s “China First” insistence, that would not be surprising, but it would waste a great opportunity.

Stephen Costello | 2017-05-24 16:56

Moon needs 'carrot and stick' for N. Korea

Why Trump is losing this game

If it were not so serious, much of the US posturing toward China and the two Koreas in past months would be humorous. But it is serious, far more so than most observers acknowledge. The “stern father” language and demeanor of the amateurs who are now making and promoting US policy is based on a misreading of recent history and a misunderstanding of basic international dynamics. Any US military “strike” on North Korea as currently contemplated would be illegal. A preemptive strike would not have justification since the much-hyped nuclear-armed ICBM aimed at the US is a distant fantasy. There ...

Stephen Costello | 2017-05-07 17:13

Korea at vortex

Korea has long been eclipsed by the importance, geopolitical weight, and commercial opportunities of Japan and China. It is time to change those calculations. The evolution of these countries’ relative impact on policy discussions, with Korea playing a larger role, began in the 1990s. The largest issues in US relations toward East Asia return relentlessly to Korea. This turn has not always been natural, but it has been logical. Developments now can go several ways, but the political landscape is different from the way it was in previous decades.

Stephen Costello | 2017-04-24 17:36

Trump goes rogue, candidates fall in line

Pakistan, India, China and the US have all tested missiles in recent months. Some are more provocative than others, depending on who is making the assessment. For the most part, these are regarded as R&D, even as intentions are also carefully examined. It is far more likely that India and Pakistan will exchange nuclear missiles than it is that North Korea will commit regime suicide by attacking South Korea, Japan or US forces in the Pacific. The creation of the current “crisis” surrounding North Korea is almost entirely due to US goading of the isolated and paranoid North Koreans through mil...

Stephen Costello | 2017-04-18 16:35

THAAD in Korea: victim of politics

The Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system is no longer about the THAAD anti-missile system. As the manufacturer states, the system may be very good at protecting specific areas such as military bases. Its range of 200km can be crucial but limited. Missile specialists say public claims about THAAD’s radar by the US and China both have some validity. For Korean political leaders the larger question has never been about the THAAD’s range or utility. Rather, their assessment of any anti-missile system has been based on threats, probabilities, and various countermeasures available to...

Stephen Costello | 2017-04-06 17:08

US, China need South Korea to lead

“Let me be perfectly clear,” said US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson in Seoul last week, echoing the signal President Barack Obama had used to conceal the policy confusion and political timidity that has defined US diplomacy toward East Asia since 2001. “The policy of strategic patience has failed.” But he wasn’t being clear about the Trump administration’s views. He was stating a fact that has been obvious to all in the region for 8 years. Tillerson would have been more clear if he had offered a reason WHY strategic patience failed. Or if he had admitted that only the Bush and Obama polici...

Stephen Costello | 2017-03-26 17:18

Suspend THAAD, pause China relations

The remarkable and complicated pressure on Korea from China and the U.S. over deployment of the THAAD anti-missile system has now made the choices for the next Korean government easier. It is an irony that just when the Korean public and leadership groups feel they have been unfairly bullied and their choices limited, clarity emerges. Friday’s final impeachment of President Park Geun-hye by the Constitutional Court can only add to that clarity. The kind of decisions forced upon the next president and his team may have been inevitable, largely because of bad assumptions, bad strategies, and u...

Stephen Costello | 2017-03-12 17:21

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