The Korea Times
amn_close.png
amn_bl.png
National
  • Politics
  • Foreign Affairs
  • Multicultural Community
  • Defense
  • Environment & Animals
  • Law & Crime
  • Society
  • Health & Science
amn_bl.png
Business
  • Tech
  • Bio
  • Companies
amn_bl.png
Finance
  • Companies
  • Economy
  • Markets
  • Cryptocurrency
amn_bl.png
Opinion
  • Editorial
  • Columns
  • Thoughts of the Times
  • Cartoon
  • Today in History
  • Blogs
  • Tribune Service
  • Blondie & Garfield
  • Letter to President
  • Letter to the Editor
amn_bl.png
Lifestyle
  • Travel & Food
  • Trends
  • People & Events
  • Books
  • Around Town
  • Fortune Telling
amn_bl.png
Entertainment & Arts
  • K-pop
  • Films
  • Shows & Dramas
  • Music
  • Theater & Others
amn_bl.png
Sports
amn_bl.png
World
  • SCMP
  • Asia
amn_bl.png
Video
  • Korean Storytellers
  • POPKORN
  • Culture
  • People
  • News
amn_bl.png
Photos
  • Photo News
  • Darkroom
amn_NK.png amn_DR.png amn_LK.png amn_LE.png
  • bt_fb_on_2022.svgbt_fb_over_2022.svg
  • bt_twitter_on_2022.svgbt_twitter_over_2022.svg
  • bt_youtube_on_2022.svgbt_youtube_over_2022.svg
  • bt_instagram_on_2022.svgbt_instagram_over_2022.svg
The Korea Times
amn_close.png
amn_bl.png
National
  • Politics
  • Foreign Affairs
  • Multicultural Community
  • Defense
  • Environment & Animals
  • Law & Crime
  • Society
  • Health & Science
amn_bl.png
Business
  • Tech
  • Bio
  • Companies
amn_bl.png
Finance
  • Companies
  • Economy
  • Markets
  • Cryptocurrency
amn_bl.png
Opinion
  • Editorial
  • Columns
  • Thoughts of the Times
  • Cartoon
  • Today in History
  • Blogs
  • Tribune Service
  • Blondie & Garfield
  • Letter to President
  • Letter to the Editor
amn_bl.png
Lifestyle
  • Travel & Food
  • Trends
  • People & Events
  • Books
  • Around Town
  • Fortune Telling
amn_bl.png
Entertainment & Arts
  • K-pop
  • Films
  • Shows & Dramas
  • Music
  • Theater & Others
amn_bl.png
Sports
amn_bl.png
World
  • SCMP
  • Asia
amn_bl.png
Video
  • Korean Storytellers
  • POPKORN
  • Culture
  • People
  • News
amn_bl.png
Photos
  • Photo News
  • Darkroom
amn_NK.png amn_DR.png amn_LK.png amn_LE.png
  • bt_fb_on_2022.svgbt_fb_over_2022.svg
  • bt_twitter_on_2022.svgbt_twitter_over_2022.svg
  • bt_youtube_on_2022.svgbt_youtube_over_2022.svg
  • bt_instagram_on_2022.svgbt_instagram_over_2022.svg
  • Login
  • Register
  • Login
  • Register
  • The Korea Times
  • search
  • all menu
  • Login
  • Subscribe
  • Photos
  • Video
  • World
  • Sports
  • Opinion
  • Entertainment & Art
  • Lifestyle
  • Finance
  • Business
  • National
  • North Korea
  • 1

    INTERVIEWKorean adoptee in Germany reunites with birth family after 42 years

  • 3

    Korea to start mass production of KF-21 in 2024

  • 5

    Yoo Yeon-seok threatens to sue people spreading accusations about him

  • 7

    Sandstorm from China forecast to push up fine dust levels in Korea

  • 9

    Retailers rush to adopt Apple Pay system

  • 11

    INTERVIEWExpert pitches Laotian rural reform to solve NK's chronic food shortages

  • 13

    INTERVIEWForbes-listed entrepreneur pursues partnerships with Samsung, LG, SK to help Ukraine

  • 15

    Indonesian students advise Korean bank on entering Indonesian market

  • 17

    Kim Nam-gil to embark on Asia fan-meeting tour

  • 19

    Long viewed as an outsider, conceptual artist grabs global spotlight in his twilight years

  • 2

    Zebra captured after escaping from Seoul zoo

  • 4

    Will exempting foreign nannies from minimum wage boost Korea's birth rate?

  • 6

    Zoo shares sad story of what caused Sero the zebra to escape

  • 8

    Daughter of North Korean dictator seen wearing $1,900 Dior jacket

  • 10

    Will Apple Pay launch boost local iPhone sales?

  • 12

    INTERVIEW'Welcome to world of art therapy'

  • 14

    Lee Som, Ahn Jae-hong to play married couple in Tving's new series

  • 16

    Kim Min-gyu, Go Bo-gyeol bid farewell to 'The Heavenly Idol'

  • 18

    US Fed lifts key interest rate amid banking sector fears

  • 20

    Samsung, SK chiefs prepare for trips to China amid intensifying 'chip war'

Close scrollclosebutton

Close for 24 hours

Open
  • The Korea Times
  • search
  • all menu
  • Login
  • Subscribe
  • Photos
  • Video
  • World
  • Sports
  • Opinion
  • Entertainment & Art
  • Lifestyle
  • Finance
  • Business
  • National
  • North Korea
Opinion
  • Editorial
  • Columns
  • Thoughts of the Times
  • Cartoon
  • Today in History
  • Blogs
  • Tribune Service
  • Blondie & Garfield
  • Letter to President
  • Letter to the Editor
Sat, March 25, 2023 | 01:56
Guest Column
Is war over Taiwan imminent?
Posted : 2021-04-14 17:05
Updated : 2021-04-14 17:06
Print PreviewPrint Preview
Font Size UpFont Size Up
Font Size DownFont Size Down
  • facebook
  • twitter
  • kakaolink
  • whatsapp
  • reddit
  • mailto
  • link
By Yun Sun

Since the beginning of the "freefall" of U.S.-China relations during the global COVID-19 pandemic last year, tension over the Taiwan Strait has been escalating, as attested by the constant military posturing, political signaling and coercive policies of the mainland. As the calls for "unification by force" worsen at an unprecedented pace in mainland China, the concern over the possible military takeover of Taiwan by China has exacerbated exponentially.

As recent as last month, Admiral Phil Davidson testified in front of the Senate Armed Services Committee that China could attempt to take control of Taiwan in the next six years. Such an estimate significantly accelerates the threat and imminence of a war over Taiwan, most likely fought between the United States and China.

There are debates as to whether Beijing has made any determined decision to wage a war over Taiwan in the next few years. The official policy statements from the top leaders on Taiwan still stick to the formula of "peaceful unification." Based on the documents that guide China's national strategies, including the 2035 Plan and the 14th Five-Year Plan, China's national priority in the foreseeable future remains domestic development, instead of national unification.

However, at the same time, it is also widely recognized that China's war preparation and military posturing toward Taiwan have accelerated in recent years. These actions include active military buildup, repeated coercive shows of force, as well as government-manipulated nationalism actively calling for "unification by force." These conflicting messages blur China's true intentions and calculations regarding Taiwan. Hence, they are particularly concerning for policymakers for their formulation of effective strategies toward a Taiwan-related contingency.

By default, China prefers peaceful unification. It's much less costly and much more conducive to China's desired image of a peaceful rise. For the past four decades, peaceful unification also has appeared plausible and tenable given the relatively peaceful development of relations between the U.S. and China.

As Beijing becomes increasingly convinced of the United States' relative decline and the peaceful "power transition" between the U.S. and China, Beijing's envisioned peaceful unification lies in a perceived future that one day, the U.S. will be so exhausted of its commitment to an island so close to China and so far away from its homeland that it will just pack up and leave.

This situation means that, in Beijing's view, Taiwan's will to begin and accept a negotiated political settlement will only emerge when U.S. support is no longer an option.

If this assessment continues, as many observers believe that it will, China will still prioritize and adhere to the formula of peaceful unification. However, since the Trump administration, the premise of the policy ― the eventual U.S. abandonment of Taiwan ― appears to be eroding more rapidly and significantly.

Indeed, as great power competition with China becomes the priority of the U.S.' national security strategy, and Taiwan's utility in that competition is being constantly reevaluated and reassessed, the importance of Taiwan for the U.S., in its future strategic and defense planning of the region, is only expected to increase.

This fact is perhaps the most important assessment in the whole scheme of China's strategy toward Taiwan. If the presumed future of peaceful unification based on political negotiation is no longer viable, the only path left for China will be the use of force, since it is highly unlikely for Beijing to adopt political reforms and make itself a more desirable partner for unification in Taiwan's view.

If the use of force is indeed determined to be the only viable option, some Chinese have argued that Beijing should exploit any remaining U.S. hesitation that is embedded in Washington's "strategic ambiguity" position, and take action sooner rather than later, before the U.S. firms up its resolve and commitment to defend Taiwan.

Any of the Chinese war planning over Taiwan by default assumes U.S. intervention, as no Chinese military leaders could afford leaving it out of the equation. Although the Chinese acknowledge the asymmetry in military capabilities between a superior U.S. and an inferior China, their confidence and belief in their eventual victory lies in the asymmetry of strategic resolve that China is willing to carry far higher casualties and losses to win the war than the U.S. ever will be.

In this sense, whether the U.S. adheres to "strategic ambiguity" or adopts "strategic clarity" is a question that amounts to null, because Chinese war planning assumes that the U.S. will intervene anyway.

However, the debate over such strategic stances does have significant impact over whether China will actively wage such a war. Although China may be willing to carry more casualties and costs when it has to, it doesn't mean that it wishes to do so.

When the cost-imposing strategy by the U.S. and its allies elevates the cost of a war to a prohibitively high level, it will force Beijing to recalculate the costs and benefits of a war over Taiwan, hence disrupting and even deterring such a decision. Whether the U.S. needs to declare such a policy is an entirely different matter, as such a declaration could corner Beijing into more imminent decisions to use force.

There is no easy way out of the Taiwan situation, as all sides feel intrinsically stuck in undesirable policy options. The precarious peace over the Taiwan Strait has been hanging in a delicate balance of power, intentions and assumptions. Many of these factors are already changing, and others are bound to change. China may not be gearing up for war tomorrow, but the fundamentals of its Taiwan policy are shifting.


Yun Sun is a senior fellow and co-director of the East Asia Program, as well as director of the China Program at the Stimson Center in Washington, D.C. This piece is published in cooperation with the Asia-Pacific Leadership for Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament (APLN) (www.apln.network).


 
Top 10 Stories
1Zoo shares sad story of what caused Sero the zebra to escapeZoo shares sad story of what caused Sero the zebra to escape
2Burnout: Cardiothoracic surgery residents work 102 hours a week Burnout: Cardiothoracic surgery residents work 102 hours a week
3More companies adopt electronic voting amid increase in shareholder activism More companies adopt electronic voting amid increase in shareholder activism
4Second daughter of Daesang chairman promoted to vice president Second daughter of Daesang chairman promoted to vice president
5North Korea will pay price for reckless provocations, warns Yoon North Korea will pay price for reckless provocations, warns Yoon
6Churches, Seoul gov't unite to fight low birthrate Churches, Seoul gov't unite to fight low birthrate
7What's next for Do Kwon? What's next for Do Kwon?
8FTC criticized for delaying approval for Hanwha's acquisition of DSME FTC criticized for delaying approval for Hanwha's acquisition of DSME
9Genesis launches 2023 G90 sedan Genesis launches 2023 G90 sedan
10Over 70% of firms unwilling to embrace longer workweek Over 70% of firms unwilling to embrace longer workweek
Top 5 Entertainment News
1Yoo Yeon-seok threatens to sue people spreading accusations about him Yoo Yeon-seok threatens to sue people spreading accusations about him
2Lee Som, Ahn Jae-hong to play married couple in Tving's new series Lee Som, Ahn Jae-hong to play married couple in Tving's new series
3Kim Min-gyu, Go Bo-gyeol bid farewell to 'The Heavenly Idol' Kim Min-gyu, Go Bo-gyeol bid farewell to 'The Heavenly Idol'
4Kim Nam-gil to embark on Asia fan-meeting tour Kim Nam-gil to embark on Asia fan-meeting tour
5Long viewed as an outsider, conceptual artist grabs global spotlight in his twilight years Long viewed as an outsider, conceptual artist grabs global spotlight in his twilight years
DARKROOM
  • Turkey-Syria earthquake

    Turkey-Syria earthquake

  • Nepal plane crash

    Nepal plane crash

  • Brazil capital uprising

    Brazil capital uprising

  • Happy New Year 2023

    Happy New Year 2023

  • World Cup 2022 Final - Argentina vs France

    World Cup 2022 Final - Argentina vs France

CEO & Publisher : Oh Young-jin
Digital News Email : webmaster@koreatimes.co.kr
Tel : 02-724-2114
Online newspaper registration No : 서울,아52844
Date of registration : 2020.02.05
Masthead : The Korea Times
Copyright © koreatimes.co.kr. All rights reserved.
  • About Us
  • Introduction
  • History
  • Contact Us
  • Products & Services
  • Subscribe
  • E-paper
  • RSS Service
  • Content Sales
  • Site Map
  • Policy
  • Code of Ethics
  • Ombudsman
  • Privacy Statement
  • Terms of Service
  • Copyright Policy
  • Family Site
  • Hankook Ilbo
  • Dongwha Group