Kim Jong-un's future lies on the success of summits

By Mahmood Elahi

This refers to the interesting article: “Possibilities peak as summits near,” by Andrew Salmon, published Tuesday.

All tyrannical regimes must rule by instilling fear among their subjects and their potential rivals. They all share the Roman dictator Caligula's dictum: “Let them hate as long as they fear.”

North Korea's dictator Kim Jong-un has been following in the footsteps of his Roman counterpart since becoming the Supreme Leader. He engineered the assassination of his half brother, and the execution of his uncle who was also a general, and he has been treating his people with unspeakable brutality. His nuclear saber rattling has come in handy to instill fear inside and outside North Korea. He has even been able to rattle the world's greatest military power _ the United States.

But then he ran out of his capability to intimidate his people and his backers inside North Korea. His military establishment must have been exhausted by being constantly on high alert expecting a pre-emptive nuclear strike from the United States. Kim cannot afford to ignore the military establishment that keeps him in power. Caligula was destroyed by his hand-picked Praetorian Guards when they found out that he had become a liability. As for the people of North Korea, they are finding that they can no longer endure his tyrannical regime.

Sanctions are also biting, adding to Kim's discomfort. China, the regime's mentor, has also joined the international sanctions. Isolated from all sides, North Korea has announced that it will stop testing nuclear weapons and long-range missiles. For a regime facing immediate economic collapse, the options are limited.

However, given the despotic Kim dynasty's history of reneging on the earlier denuclearization agreement, one is right to counsel caution about Kim Jong-un's sincerity. This time, North Korea will need to make verifiable steps to show that it is abandoning for good its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile testing programs. Kim has said nothing about getting rid of his existing nuclear stockpiles. The summits must include this.

U.S. President Donald Trump welcomed Pyongyang's announcement as “big progress!” This reflects his success in dealing with the crisis after decades of failure by his predecessors. Both South Korean President Moon and U.S. President Trump deserve our thanks for bringing the long-standing crisis on the Korean Peninsula to a peaceful end.

Both President Moon and President Trump will be meeting Kim Jong-un from a position of strength. They enjoy all the cards and despite his nuclear arsenal, Kim is in a weak position and he needs the deal for his own survival. The international campaign of maximum diplomatic, political and economic pressure is working and it must remain unrelenting until Kim meets his promises. The rewards will be the lifting of sanctions and opening of trade and investment opportunities.

Salmon is absolutely right when he says: “So, the upcoming summits deserve support, not the kind of cynicism that becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Various stars have aligned.”

Mahmood Elahi (omega51@sympatico.ca) is a freelance writer in Ottawa.