Multifaceted approach to North Korea's missile threats

On April 3, North Korea announced it had successfully launched a solid-fuel rocket engine with a hypersonic glide warhead vehicle that was nuclear capable. The Hwasong-16 Na was launched from a seven axle mobile vehicle, which is longer than previously observed North Korean transporter erector launchers (TEL). This hints at North Korean capabilities to produce and improve its construction of such mobile vehicles. The deployment of such advanced weaponry underscores North Korea's relentless pursuit of military advancements despite international sanctions and condemnation.

The mobile launchers and solid-fuel engines give the North Koreans the ability to launch missiles with very short notice at most, if not all, locations of their choosing. The launch video also shows a short boost stage for the missile that protects the mobile launcher from the initial blast and heat. This in turn will allow the launcher to be reused for future deployments.

The warhead is hypersonic which means it can travel more than 10 to 20 times the speed of sound and it is maneuverable. The maneuverability of the warhead will enable the warhead to zig-zag through airspace and make it much harder for anti-aircraft missiles to neutralize the incoming warhead.

Finally, the North Koreans claim that the Hwasong-16 Na is capable of reaching Guam and some even speculate that it might have the range to target Alaska. But there are others like the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff who think that these claims and estimates are exaggerated.

Whatever the details, the North Koreans are gradually gaining ground. Since the launch of the Pukguksong (liquid-fuel engine) ballistic missile in 2015, it has taken the North Koreans nine years to perfect a missile that has a solid-fuel engine, a maneuverable warhead capable of hypersonic speeds and carrying a nuclear payload.

This will make the defense of South Korea and its allies much more difficult. Even with a three-layered air defense, there will be no guarantees that we will be able to intercept all incoming missiles from North Korea. The thought of a barrage of hypersonic glide missiles heading toward our homes would be a nightmare that now has become a real problem.

As we think and contemplate solutions to this problem, one option is to destroy these TELs before they are used. A preemptive strike and a robust anti-ballistic missile (ABM) defense would reduce the North Korean ballistic missile effectiveness. The greatest problems are that the South would be seen as the perpetrator of hostilities if we attacked first and that there is no way to be absolutely sure that a North Korean attack was imminent and that we would be successful.

Although North Korea celebrates its success in achieving an offensive ballistic missile capability, the fact of the matter is that these very capabilities will invite a possible attack from an adversary that had no intention to do so in the first place.

South Korea is not standing by idly. On April 8, South Korea successfully put into orbit its second military reconnaissance satellite, which has a Synthetic Aperture Radar system that will provide all-weather coverage of North Korea. Additional satellites in various orbits and sizes will give South Korea the ability to track and target North Korean TELs. Add artificial intelligence into the equation and North Korea will have a hard time surprising the South and its allies.

While discussions of preemptive strikes and enhanced missile defense systems are on the table, diplomatic solutions remain paramount. Despite the escalation in military capabilities, the logical conclusion remains the pursuit of peaceful coexistence through dialogue and negotiation. International cooperation and diplomatic engagement are essential in addressing the underlying issues driving North Korea's aggressive posture and fostering stability in the region.

North Korea is fighting an imaginary enemy. The real enemy is the tyrannical political system that North Korea is based on. South Korea does not want war but it has become an option now that North Korea has launched its series of satellites into space. ABMs will not be enough but already laser weapons are becoming operational and will be affordable enough to deploy and will make the most capable missiles obsolete.

The logical conclusion is to negotiate and find ways to coexist. North Korea's recent missile advancements pose significant challenges to regional security, necessitating a multifaceted approach that combines deterrence, defense and diplomacy. As tensions persist, it is imperative for stakeholders to prioritize dialogue and seek peaceful resolutions to avoid the potentially catastrophic consequences of a military confrontation.

Chun In-bum (truechun@naver.com) served as a lieutenant general of the ROK Army and commander of Special Forces Korea.