Taking stock of North Korea, Russia and China's northern triangle

 

The leaders of South Korea, Japan and the United States met on Aug. 18 at Camp David, where they agreed on the substantial strengthening of their relations in security, the economy and technology, and declared the opening of “a new chapter” in the relations among the three countries.

The following month, the leaders of North Korea and Russia met at the Vostochny Cosmodrome in the Russian Far East, where it was suspected that North Korea and Russia agreed on the barter of North Korea’s conventional weapons for Russia’s high technology to support North Korea’s programs for weapons of mass destruction.

These two events are often cited as Exhibits A and B of mutually reinforcing confrontation between the Southern Triangle of South Korea, Japan and the United States and the Northern Triangle of North Korea, Russia and China. I recently had an opportunity to meet with a group of academics and former diplomats to discuss related issues. The following points appealed to me.

First, I found it interesting regarding the analysis of North Korea’s perceptions and approaches. It was in 2007 that North Korea began to blame the U.S. for starting a new cold war and suggested the need to strengthen relations between North Korea, Russia and China. That was the time when a large number of former communist countries were busy introducing reforms and openness, and transforming their countries. That was also the time when the U.S. made consistent efforts to improve relations with China and Russia.

North Korea made a rare exception by turning its back the global trends of reforms and openness, developing nuclear weapons and suffering from global sanctions. Thus, North Korea loathed the new international order, and longed for the return of the Cold War order. After almost 20 years, North Korea now seems to be relieved that international relations are turning to a resemblance of the Cold War.

Second, China was the biggest beneficiary of the end of the Cold War and the subsequent globalization. China’s GDP stood at $1.4 trillion in 2001 when China joined the WTO with the U.S.' blessing. In 2022, it went up to $18 trillion.

In making that impressive transformation, China depended hugely on the exchange of goods, finance and technology with the market economies of the West. Thus, “de-linking” from China after all these years, is not a viable option for the West, neither for the former or its partners in the West.

For that reason, China has to play by the rules-based international order, at least to the extent necessary. This will work as an important inhibition for China to become fully committed to the Northern Triangle with North Korea and Russia, who reject the rules-based international order almost in its entirety. Some participants, however, held a view that such conjectures on China’s position could be our own wishful thinking.

Third, participants were of the view that South Korea better avoid the frame of the deepening confrontation between the Southern Triangle and the Northern Triangle. Such a frame will have a self-fulfilling impact and help North Korea and Russia’s efforts to pull China further into their orbit. Instead, South Korea must maintain its position that it is strengthening its cooperation with the U.S. and Japan, only because Korea’s core values are being increasingly challenged. South Korea does not seek to divide its neighbors into differing and opposing camps.

As a matter of fact, that is precisely the point made in Korea’s Indo-Pacific Strategy announced in December last year. With respect to China in particular, the strategy stated that Korea wishes to continue to develop relations with China on the basis of the rules-based international order, mutual respect and benefits.

There had been a long gap in the exchange of visits among high-level officials between Korea and China. It was somehow interpreted as arising from China’s unhappiness with the Yoon government’s posture to pursue principle-based relations with China. Such a view began to subside after President Yoon’s meetings with Prime Minister Li Qiang in Jakarta and soon in New Delhi last September on the occasion of ASEAN and G-20 meetings. Prime Minister Han also met with President Xi on the occasion of the Asian Games in Hangzhou.

Many participants found these developments timely and suggested that the momentum should be maintained. For example, a South Korea-Japan-China summit meeting has been long delayed. It is now Korea’s turn to host the meeting, a good opportunity to engage China. At the same time, China has long dangled the idea of Xi making a return visit to Korea, which Korea hopes will happen in the not-too-distant future. Through such meetings and visits, China could show to the world that it can be a constructive actor to address a large number of challenging issues we face globally as well as regionally in Northeast Asia, Eastern Europe and the Middle East.

Ahn Ho-young is chair professor of North Korean Studies, Kyungnam University. He served as Korean ambassador to the U.S. and vice foreign minister.