ED Time for nuclear buildup

 

Earlier this month, Admiral Kim Myung-soo, the new chairman of the Joint Chief of Staffs, called for South Korea’s acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines, reviving a debate about their inclusion in the country’s submarine fleet.

Former President Moon Jae-in first raised the issue in 2017 when he endorsed the idea as part of his plans to create an independent military force less reliant on the United States.

South Korea currently operates a mix of conventional diesel-electric and air independent propulsion (AIP) submarines, most of them of German design. AIP technology makes it possible to build low-cost, highly-capable submarines well suited for coastal defense. But they also need to resurface after a few weeks to recharge their batteries.

Supporters of nuclear submarines note that they can stay underwater for months to avoid detection. Nuclear submarines can also go faster, reaching speeds of up to 40 knots at depth, twice that of diesel-electric submarines.

They would also help turn the ROK Navy (ROKN) into a true “blue water” fleet able to project power at greater distances around the world and support its growing diplomatic interests.

South Korea would become the ninth country in the world to operate nuclear submarines, following the U.S., Russia, France, the U.K., China, India, Brazil and Australia.

The proposal has encountered controversy, however, due to the high cost of developing and constructing the nuclear submarines, which could impact the entire defense budget. AIP submarines are much cheaper to buy, although the operational cost of nuclear submarines is considerably lower as they rarely need to be refueled.

Another main obstacle is that South Korea would have to find a reliable, long-term fuel supplier. Seoul has nuclear fuel supply agreements with the U.S., but for civilian applications only. It is unlikely that Washington would provide highly enriched nuclear fuel for military purposes since it poses a non-proliferation threat.

Nonetheless, several recent developments could bring a South Korean nuclear submarine closer to reality. One is that there appears to be growing bipartisan support for the project. A majority of South Koreans believe that their country should have some form of nuclear capability. The liberal opposition shares Moon’s vision of a more self-reliant military force, while the ruling conservatives see nuclear submarines as an effective countermeasure to the growing threat of North Korea’s submarine fleet.

North Korea recently unveiled a heavily modified Sinpo-class submarine allegedly capable of carrying four submarine-launched ballistic missiles. Supporters claim that nuclear submarines would allow the ROKN to better track North Korean submarines and help block their deployment in the coastal waters surrounding South Korea.

Seoul might hope to persuade Washington to supply nuclear fuel by arguing that the ROKN nuclear submarines would be a useful asset to counter North Korea, China and Russia, which also pose a direct threat to the U.S. But the U.S. is likely to decide to refuse to sell nuclear fuel, since it believes that a nuclear ROKN force could destabilize the geopolitical balance in Northeast Asia.

One alternative source of nuclear fuel, however, has emerged: France. The NATO country is viewed as a potential partner since its nuclear submarines made a transition years ago from highly enriched to low enriched uranium fuel for their reactors, which obviates many nuclear proliferation concerns.

Paris was livid when Australia, in 2021, canceled a $66 billion contract for a French-built fleet of AIP submarines. Canberra instead decided to buy up to eight nuclear submarines from the U.S. and U.K. as part of the new AUKUS defense alliance.

France would no doubt be happy to thumb its nose at the U.S. if it was able to win a submarine order from one of Washington’s closest defense allies and it might be willing to offer a competitive price to South Korea to seal the deal.

Cooperation with France, however, would likely mean that South Korea would have to give up its own plans to develop a domestic nuclear submarine. Seoul had been considering modifying several of its latest Dosan Ahn Chang-ho class submarines, the first to largely use local technology, into nuclear ones.

A template for Franco-Korean cooperation would be one that France has concluded with Brazil. France is providing the technology for Brazil’s first submarine, which will be built near Rio De Janeiro.

But even if a deal with Paris is signed soon, it will take at least a decade -- and probably more -- before South Korea operates its first nuclear submarine due to long lead times. It is thus essential that Seoul makes a decision as soon as possible on the issue.

John Merrill (jmerrill05@gmail.com) is a visiting scholar at the Institute of Korean Studies at George Washington University.