Dangerous waters

Allies should engage NK via dialogue and diplomacy

By John Burton

When the USS Kentucky last month made the first port visit by a U.S. nuclear submarine to South Korea in 40 years, it was sailing into dangerous waters. The Korean Peninsula may now be closer to a conflict than at any other time since 1994, when U.S. President Bill Clinton was contemplating an air strike against North Korea's Yongbyon nuclear facility.

Start with North Korea's actions. Pyongyang continues to build up a formidable nuclear and missile arsenal. The centerpiece of its recent test program is the Hwasong-18, its first solid-fuel missile capable of reaching the U.S. The missile can be launched with little warning and gives North Korea a first or second-strike capability, potentially undermining the U.S. nuclear retaliation.

In addition, North Korea may soon conduct its seventh nuclear test, which is expected to focus on achieving the miniaturization of a nuclear warhead able to fit on a missile. This is seen as the last vital step in completing its nuclear arsenal.

In conducting a record number of missile tests last year, North Korea appears intent on improving their operational readiness as well developing a wide range of missiles, including those intended for tactical nuclear use on the battlefield in South Korea.

Meanwhile, North Korea appears to be enjoying its best relations with China and Russia in years. Pyongyang is one of Moscow's closest allies in the invasion of Ukraine and is said to be providing artillery shells and other weaponry to Russia. China also views North Korea as a useful ally as Sino-American relations deteriorate.

The days when Russia and China supported additional U.N. sanctions against North Korea for its nuclear program are over. They now seem willing to help Pyongyang to evade existing sanctions. This should help North Korea recover from the problems caused by its strict COVID-19 control measures. Its strict border lockdown resulted in food shortages, for example. But there are signs that North Korea is now receiving food supplies and other vital goods from China and Russia.

President Yoon Suk Yeol is matching North Korea's aggressive stance with his own hawkish policy. In the past year, he has completely dismantled the policy of reconciliation toward Pyongyang championed by his successor, Moon Jae-in. Instead of inter-Korean summits, a common feature of Moon's administration, there is now radio silence between the two capitals.

Even before Yoon came to power in May 2022, several developments had already weakened any reconciliation efforts. One was the collapse of denuclearization negotiations between Washington and Pyongyang in 2019. This was followed by North Korea's total shutdown in 2020 in reaction to the global pandemic.

Seoul's emphasis is now on military measures. It recently held the largest joint military exercises with the U.S. in years. In response to South Korea's suggestions that it might develop its own nuclear weapons, Washington agreed to set up a bilateral group to consult on the possible use of U.S. nuclear weapons in the case of war.

Yoon's North Korea policy is exemplified by his appointment of Kim Yung-ho, a hawkish academic, as head of the Ministry of Unification, which has served as a useful backchannel to Pyongyang for more than 50 years..

The absence of dialogue across the DMZ is deeply troubling, particularly when the two Koreas are engaged in a saber-rattling war of words. It is such conditions that make the possibility of even an unintentional war more likely.

It might be time for the Biden administration to intervene and conduct a more forceful North Korea policy based on diplomacy rather than engaging in an arms race. The collapse of the talks between Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un in 2019 has led to distrust on both sides. Washington has stuck to its demands that denuclearization should be the basis for future talks, although that is increasingly unrealistic. Pyongyang believes that it is in a stronger position than ever due to support from Russia and China.

Washington's engagement with Pyongyang has reduced the chances of conflict in the past. Having gone to the brink of war with North Korea in 1994, the Clinton administration suddenly reversed course and started a bilateral dialogue that lasted for eight years and brought at least some stability to the Korean Peninsula.

Restarting dialogue now will be admittedly difficult, given its absence over the last four years. Although the Biden administration has said it is willing to engage in negotiations with Pyongyang "without preconditions," it is undercutting its message by building up its military capability in Northeast Asia.

Will Biden be willing to break the impasse by taking a bold step of making an unilateral concession to North Korea and, for example, scaling back U.S. military deterrence measures? The alternative is looking increasingly grim.

John Burton (johnburtonft@yahoo.com), a former Korea correspondent for the Financial Times, is a Washington, D.C.-based journalist and consultant. He is a columnist and guest editorial writer of The Korea Times.