Tokyo will unlikely fill other half of cup
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's overnight stay in South Korea showed the essence of practical diplomacy ― from Japan's viewpoint.
Assuming bilateral diplomacy is a deal, Tokyo got the most and lost the least. The opposite was Seoul, as theirs is not a win-win but a zero-sum game, at least in the foreseeable future.
This was expected but no less disappointing.
Kishida cemented three things. First, he got a reassurance from President Yoon Suk Yeol that Seoul would push ahead with compensating the Korean victims of forced labor during WWII on Japan's behalf despite domestic opposition.
Second, Japan will jump on the renewed ― if mainly in appearance ― nuclear bandwagon of the United States and South Korea. Yoon did not rule out Japan joining the Nuclear Consultative Group if Tokyo wins a nod from Washington. The group will change little in substance but cement the symbolism of a trilateral alliance against North Korea ― and China.
Third, Japan has moved one step closer to releasing contaminated water from nuclear power plants in Fukushima to the Pacific Ocean. Japan will let a Korean team inspect the site beforehand, subduing opposition from Seoul and leaving the rest up to IAEA and 18 Pacific Island nations. If the tainted water is released into the sea, Korea may also be unable to keep its ban on importing fish caught near Fukushima.
Far more importantly, the Japanese leader made it clear that Tokyo would no longer reflect on or apologize for Japan's wrongdoings to Koreans during the colonial days. Publicly, Kishida went no further than 52 days ago in Tokyo when he vowed to inherit the previous Japanese governments' positions on these historical issues. Personally, Kishida said his "heart ached" when he thought of the suffering of those Koreans. He thus blunted opposition in both capitals while adding nothing "official."
All these show Yoon must learn from his Japanese counterpart at least as far as delicate diplomacy is concerned. During the post-summit news conference on Sunday, Yoon said Seoul's formula of settling issues regarding former forced laborers and sex slaves is "the only solution." However, there is room for civil dispute over proxy reimbursement against the creditors' will. The prosecutor-turned-president must know but ignores this point.
Yoon also said, "Korea must get out of the perception that there is no cooperation with Japan without settling the past." That deliberately distorts opposition claims. Historical hawks say the two countries should, and can, take a two-track approach where they continue to narrow differences on past issues while cooperating on future tasks.
The past is important because it shapes the present, which, in turn, shapes the future. Korea also must learn from Japan's farsightedness and meticulousness in this regard. Unlike Germany, Japan is exceptionally cautious in admitting past wrongs. And unlike Germany, which does not openly pursue restoring its past military prowess, Japan has begun to show its ambition, often citing North Korea.
If Korea has a similarly farsighted perspective, its eventual destination is the unified Korean Peninsula. Yet the incumbent administration's policy is going increasingly further away from this direction, given reunification is nearly impossible without the cooperation of China and Russia.
Yoon is betting all on the three-nation alliance. However, diplomacy is different from gambling, at least in two ways. Putting everything on the line can lead to a jackpot in gambling. In diplomacy, a similar strategy has too much to lose and too little to gain. Also, one can have a second chance if given enough time in gambling. In diplomacy, the damage is irrecoverable until one leaves the place, leaving debt to successors.
Yoon and Kishida say they will go ahead with their "shuttle diplomacy," a misnomer that nobody seems to care about anymore. Shuttle or not, summit diplomacy, or any diplomacy for that matter, cannot last long if benefits and damage are lopsided. The two leaders, and their U.S. partner, must also know diplomacy will continue after their tenure.
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's overnight stay in South Korea showed the essence of practical diplomacy ― from Japan's viewpoint.
Assuming bilateral diplomacy is a deal, Tokyo got the most and lost the least. The opposite was Seoul, as theirs is not a win-win but a zero-sum game, at least in the foreseeable future.
This was expected but no less disappointing.
Kishida cemented three things. First, he got a reassurance from President Yoon Suk Yeol that Seoul would push ahead with compensating the Korean victims of forced labor during WWII on Japan's behalf despite domestic opposition.
Second, Japan will jump on the renewed ― if mainly in appearance ― nuclear bandwagon of the United States and South Korea. Yoon did not rule out Japan joining the Nuclear Consultative Group if Tokyo wins a nod from Washington. The group will change little in substance but cement the symbolism of a trilateral alliance against North Korea ― and China.
Third, Japan has moved one step closer to releasing contaminated water from nuclear power plants in Fukushima to the Pacific Ocean. Japan will let a Korean team inspect the site beforehand, subduing opposition from Seoul and leaving the rest up to IAEA and 18 Pacific Island nations. If the tainted water is released into the sea, Korea may also be unable to keep its ban on importing fish caught near Fukushima.
Far more importantly, the Japanese leader made it clear that Tokyo would no longer reflect on or apologize for Japan's wrongdoings to Koreans during the colonial days. Publicly, Kishida went no further than 52 days ago in Tokyo when he vowed to inherit the previous Japanese governments' positions on these historical issues. Personally, Kishida said his "heart ached" when he thought of the suffering of those Koreans. He thus blunted opposition in both capitals while adding nothing "official."
All these show Yoon must learn from his Japanese counterpart at least as far as delicate diplomacy is concerned. During the post-summit news conference on Sunday, Yoon said Seoul's formula of settling issues regarding former forced laborers and sex slaves is "the only solution." However, there is room for civil dispute over proxy reimbursement against the creditors' will. The prosecutor-turned-president must know but ignores this point.
Yoon also said, "Korea must get out of the perception that there is no cooperation with Japan without settling the past." That deliberately distorts opposition claims. Historical hawks say the two countries should, and can, take a two-track approach where they continue to narrow differences on past issues while cooperating on future tasks.
The past is important because it shapes the present, which, in turn, shapes the future. Korea also must learn from Japan's farsightedness and meticulousness in this regard. Unlike Germany, Japan is exceptionally cautious in admitting past wrongs. And unlike Germany, which does not openly pursue restoring its past military prowess, Japan has begun to show its ambition, often citing North Korea.
If Korea has a similarly farsighted perspective, its eventual destination is the unified Korean Peninsula. Yet the incumbent administration's policy is going increasingly further away from this direction, given reunification is nearly impossible without the cooperation of China and Russia.
Yoon is betting all on the three-nation alliance. However, diplomacy is different from gambling, at least in two ways. Putting everything on the line can lead to a jackpot in gambling. In diplomacy, a similar strategy has too much to lose and too little to gain. Also, one can have a second chance if given enough time in gambling. In diplomacy, the damage is irrecoverable until one leaves the place, leaving debt to successors.
Yoon and Kishida say they will go ahead with their "shuttle diplomacy," a misnomer that nobody seems to care about anymore. Shuttle or not, summit diplomacy, or any diplomacy for that matter, cannot last long if benefits and damage are lopsided. The two leaders, and their U.S. partner, must also know diplomacy will continue after their tenure.
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