End of an era in Europe

By Andrew Hammond

The death on June 12 of Italy's longest-ever serving prime minister, Silvio Berlusconi, has shone a spotlight on how much European politics has changed in the last few decades in a populist direction.

After taking office in 1994 for the first time, the billionaire businessman led four Italian governments until 2011, although not consecutively. He showed a remarkable propensity to bounce back from sex scandals and corruption cases (facing trial at least 36 times), and in many ways was a forerunner of many of the populist politicians of today in Europe like the U.K.'s Boris Johnson, and indeed further afield too, such as former U.S. President Donald Trump.

Internationally, Berlusconi also had strange political bedfellows, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, like populists of a more recent vintage such as Trump. As recently as October, Berlusconi was reportedly still describing Putin as a "friend," despite Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.

When Berlusconi first assumed the Italian prime ministership, only a handful of key states with populations over 20 million ― including Italy and Venezuela ― had populist leaders. Alongside the conservative maverick leader in Rome, for instance, Hugo Chavez was Venezuelan president from 1999 to 2013 aligning himself with the governments of Fidel and then Raul Castro in Cuba.

However, this then-relatively small "populist club" expanded significantly after the onset of the 2007-08 international financial crisis that heralded what has been called the great recession. The role of economic downturn and austerity in the wake of that economic tsunami has been key to the rise of populism in Europe.

Unrest, however, has also tapped into pre-existing disquiet with established European political parties and systems. And also a broader range of economic, political, social and technological factors that have also driven unrest across much of the rest of the world too.

It is in the last decade that there has been the biggest rise in populism across Europe and the wider world, including Trump winning power in 2016 and Johnson in 2019. For those who prefer their political history neatly arranged, it is perhaps, therefore, fitting that Johnson's own political career in the United Kingdom may be ending at the same time as Berlusconi died. The former Italian prime minister was probably at his most powerful in the early 2000s, when Johnson was a journalist, and it is clear from the latter's writing that he admired him.

On the same day of Berlusconi's passing at the age of 86, Johnson submitted his resignation as an MP. The implosion of the latter's political career, for now at least, came as a damning report is soon to be released into his behavior as U.K. prime minister in the midst of the pandemic during the so-called "party gate" scandal. However, Johnson (at 58), could yet stage a political comeback once the Conservatives lose power.

Despite all of his many flaws, the former prime minister remains very popular amongst Conservative members, and it is therefore plausible that he may try to run again for the Conservative leadership in the future. In the last century, four people have served second periods in Downing Street after losing an election. There remains an outside possibility that Johnson might be the fifth such person to achieve this feat.

The fact that Johnson could yet stage a comeback, despite all of his indecent behavior which would have unquestionably ended political careers in a different era, showcases that the era of populism is far from over. To be sure, some data indicates that the number of populist leaders has fallen since the pandemic began.

However, populism is still widely prevalent in Europe, including the success in 2022 of Giorgia Meloni coming to power as the Italian prime minister. Meloni, a rightist nationalist supported by Berlusconi, exemplifies how European populism tends to be of a different conservative variety to Latin America where left-wing populism predominates.

Yet, while leaders from across different continents have different flavors of populism, they tend to win power through common campaign tactics. This includes attacks on immigration.

While populists can be very effective campaigners, they tend to be very poor at governing. This has absolutely been the case with Trump and Johnson and was too with Berlusconi.

Take the example of Johnson who, despite winning a big majority in 2019, achieved very little of significance during his years in power to 2022. This includes the failure of his central vision to level-up the country by increasing pay, living standards and the number of jobs, in areas of the country where they are lower than in others so that all areas are more equal.

Equally, Berlusconi didn't leave a legacy of great accomplishment either. His time in charge of Italy was largely spent in fruitless battles with the judiciary and media.

Yet, while the governing record of politicians like Johnson and Berlusconi has been poor, there is a plausible case for why populism may only grow in appeal again in the coming years. This may be fueled by the aftermath of the coronavirus crisis which triggered a deeper, broader global recession than even that of the 2007/08 international financial crisis.

Moreover, rising economic inequality is key too. While some affluent cohorts have seen their wealth increase even since the pandemic began, poorer people have often seen their incomes stagnate or worsen.

So while the death of Berlusconi and the demise of Johnson may indicate the end of an era in European politics, the political phenomenon of populism may yet rebound. This is despite the fact that politicians of this ilk have done little to tackle the core economic and political challenges that power them to office.

Andrew Hammond (andrewkorea@outlook.com) is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.