By Lee Seong-hyon
China's "silence" on the "bloody nose" strategy is raising many eyebrows. Some speculate that the Chinese government's silence implies it acquiesces to a U.S. limited military strike on North Korea. If that were the case, then it would connote something extremely significant ― a fundamental shift in Beijing's geopolitical calculus. However, in the final analysis, this interpretation is a wild guess.
Although it seems that China is keeping silent on the "bloody nose," in fact, Beijing has sealed its lips ever since the beginning of this year and on other Korean issues as well, such as the ongoing inter-Korean talks and North Korea's participation in the PyeongChang Winter Olympics, and even this week's high-level meeting between Kim Jong-un and President Moon Jae-in's envoys.
In all this process, China has been mute. But it has been keenly "observing" the current situation with huge interest. And it sees that "silence" is the best strategy.
Why does China maintain "silence" about the current situation on the Korean Peninsula? Relevant questions could be: How did China view the high-level contact between the two Koreas during the PyeongChang Winter Olympics? And: Is China likely to "step in" to the arena to play the role of a "peace maker"? Not likely.
First, Beijing wishes to avoid being perceived as a country trying to "meddle" in the delicate inter-Korean dialogue underway. China officially and vocally advocates a policy of non-interference into another country's internal affairs. Beijing uses this rationale for its own protection so as to defer the West's criticism of its non-democratic political system and human rights concerns.
China, including its top leader Xi Jinping, officially endorses "a peaceful unification decided by the two Koreas" (zizhu heping tongyi). China also supports the improvement of inter-Korean relations as this benefits its security periphery. Beijing doesn't want a "tinderbox" in its vicinity, notably the ever-volatile Korean Peninsula. In this context, the current detente through the Olympics and high-level meetings serve the country's interest.
Second, the mouthpiece of the North Korea's Workers' Party snubbed China in an editorial issued on Feb. 8, saying "at this time [when the two Koreas are now on the track of positive development], some Chinese media are … seriously spoiling the atmosphere of the inter-Korean festival," and lashed out at those attempts by characterizing them as "interference in the internal issue of the Korean nation."
North Korea overtly warned China in this way not to "meddle in other country's affairs." This is an effective approach in negotiating with Beijing since China itself predicates on the principle of non-interference in domestic affairs of other countries. Pyongyang seems to know how to deal with the Middle Kingdom dragon.
Nonetheless, the current state of affairs has unraveled, overall, in favor of China in two aspects. First, North Korea's "charm offensive" has sowed tension in the Seoul-U.S. alliance. This is clearly "good news" for China, which paranoid suspects that the alliance's "unspoken goal" is to check and contain it.
Second, the tensions surrounding the Korean Peninsula have temporarily been alleviated through the inter-Korean talks. This is also what China wanted. Beijing therefore has no reason to squeeze its efforts to take a "free ride" in inter-Korean talks amid the circumstances that are unfolding just as it hopes.
Then, what role could the country play in keeping the momentum of detente ― fostered through the Olympics ― going forward? First, while some analysts predict that China will soon dispatch a special envoy to North Korea (as we saw many times in the past!), that is unlikely to happen for the moment. Beijing is not confident whether Pyongyang will welcome such a move.
Nonetheless, there are possibilities that China might use the major anniversary occasions between North Korea and China to send envoys and engage in high-level talks. It's a relic of the Socialist tradition from the Cold War era. The duo still uses the socialist tradition for trouble-shooting purposes today.
Second, it's also unlikely that Beijing will actively try to mediate the thorny relationship between Washington and Pyongyang either. China, being at loggerheads with the U.S., is not in the position to act as a "peace maker" between the U.S. and North Korea by urging Washington to talk with Pyongyang. However, Beijing, at least, appears to be willing to shore up South Korea in persuading Washington in that regard.
Taking all these things into consideration, South Korea should prudently explore its strategic options.
Lee Seong-hyon (sunnybbsfs@gmail.com), Ph.D., is a research fellow at the Sejong Institute.
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Although it seems that China is keeping silent on the "bloody nose," in fact, Beijing has sealed its lips ever since the beginning of this year and on other Korean issues as well, such as the ongoing inter-Korean talks and North Korea's participation in the PyeongChang Winter Olympics, and even this week's high-level meeting between Kim Jong-un and President Moon Jae-in's envoys.
In all this process, China has been mute. But it has been keenly "observing" the current situation with huge interest. And it sees that "silence" is the best strategy.
Why does China maintain "silence" about the current situation on the Korean Peninsula? Relevant questions could be: How did China view the high-level contact between the two Koreas during the PyeongChang Winter Olympics? And: Is China likely to "step in" to the arena to play the role of a "peace maker"? Not likely.
First, Beijing wishes to avoid being perceived as a country trying to "meddle" in the delicate inter-Korean dialogue underway. China officially and vocally advocates a policy of non-interference into another country's internal affairs. Beijing uses this rationale for its own protection so as to defer the West's criticism of its non-democratic political system and human rights concerns.
China, including its top leader Xi Jinping, officially endorses "a peaceful unification decided by the two Koreas" (zizhu heping tongyi). China also supports the improvement of inter-Korean relations as this benefits its security periphery. Beijing doesn't want a "tinderbox" in its vicinity, notably the ever-volatile Korean Peninsula. In this context, the current detente through the Olympics and high-level meetings serve the country's interest.
Second, the mouthpiece of the North Korea's Workers' Party snubbed China in an editorial issued on Feb. 8, saying "at this time [when the two Koreas are now on the track of positive development], some Chinese media are … seriously spoiling the atmosphere of the inter-Korean festival," and lashed out at those attempts by characterizing them as "interference in the internal issue of the Korean nation."
North Korea overtly warned China in this way not to "meddle in other country's affairs." This is an effective approach in negotiating with Beijing since China itself predicates on the principle of non-interference in domestic affairs of other countries. Pyongyang seems to know how to deal with the Middle Kingdom dragon.
Nonetheless, the current state of affairs has unraveled, overall, in favor of China in two aspects. First, North Korea's "charm offensive" has sowed tension in the Seoul-U.S. alliance. This is clearly "good news" for China, which paranoid suspects that the alliance's "unspoken goal" is to check and contain it.
Second, the tensions surrounding the Korean Peninsula have temporarily been alleviated through the inter-Korean talks. This is also what China wanted. Beijing therefore has no reason to squeeze its efforts to take a "free ride" in inter-Korean talks amid the circumstances that are unfolding just as it hopes.
Then, what role could the country play in keeping the momentum of detente ― fostered through the Olympics ― going forward? First, while some analysts predict that China will soon dispatch a special envoy to North Korea (as we saw many times in the past!), that is unlikely to happen for the moment. Beijing is not confident whether Pyongyang will welcome such a move.
Nonetheless, there are possibilities that China might use the major anniversary occasions between North Korea and China to send envoys and engage in high-level talks. It's a relic of the Socialist tradition from the Cold War era. The duo still uses the socialist tradition for trouble-shooting purposes today.
Second, it's also unlikely that Beijing will actively try to mediate the thorny relationship between Washington and Pyongyang either. China, being at loggerheads with the U.S., is not in the position to act as a "peace maker" between the U.S. and North Korea by urging Washington to talk with Pyongyang. However, Beijing, at least, appears to be willing to shore up South Korea in persuading Washington in that regard.
Taking all these things into consideration, South Korea should prudently explore its strategic options.
Lee Seong-hyon (sunnybbsfs@gmail.com), Ph.D., is a research fellow at the Sejong Institute.
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