By Bernard Rowan
It seems Kim Jong-un can't get enough of missile launches. He's launched short-range missiles, midrange missiles, missiles landing in the East Sea, and some that could reach the United States mainland.
Somehow, though, the entire business looks like theater. It's expensive, but then again Kim spends most of his country's funds on the state apparatus and weaponry anyway. A student of domestic politics might think Kim is shoring up his credibility, given the U.S.-ROK exercises, named Vigilant Storm. There must be more and greater launches since he can't stop his enemies from showing their military capacities. Or perhaps he hopes to stir up domestic South Korean angst, some pining for past days when his entreaties saw the cancellation of exercises.
Kim also has launched his foreign minister, not yet literally, but on the airwaves. Choe Son-hui ranks high in the cadre, and this past week she declared the official line. Strong and pointed statements and threats about South Korea, the United States, and the North's invincible power spread across the media. One must rank North Korean spokespersons as experts of presumptuous confidence.
Kim Jong-un fails to see that the world doesn't buy the latest ploy in his quiver of bluffing. Pyongyang knows that any real attack is a fool's errand. The regime has the power to attack the South if this were the real objective. It isn't. Kim knows any such attack would result in the end of his regime, and likely the ruin of his nation. Kim's first and final commitment is to his survival as the Great Leader. War would not only mean his regime's death, but also the end of North Korea as he styles it.
Pyongyang had to grind its collective teeth with the tepid results from the U.S. midterm elections, as well as the growing alignment of the Biden and Yoon administrations, including with other allies, most notably Japan. Driving a wedge into this thicket of defense for the cause of freedom won't be easier these days.
The United States, South Korea, and all allies must seek to stop weapons shipments from the North to help Putin in his war for Greater Russia. One day his people will learn that Kim sides with some prizewinning leaders, including Putin and the Great Ayatollah Khomeini. Behold this triumvirate of backward and declining powers. Kim can't take much heart from striving to make money sixty ways under the global markets, either. Wasting it all on glorified fireworks shows is symptomatic of the bluff.
Of course, Kim's friend, Donald Trump, has decided to run for the presidency again. I suggest a ticket with Dennis Rodman. Trump runs for office because he's trying to distract from the legal woes coming his way. He can't take over "The Bachelor" so a pathetic version of The Political Apprentice awaits us yet again.
South Korea and the Biden administration won't play the games of concession-making. They won't show interest in charade parades and fake meetings on the world stage. The peoples of South Korea and the United States show little interest in negotiations for negotiations' sake. While the world moves on, Kim leaves it at displaying his daughter at a missile launch. How pathetic.
China is now past the need for her leader to shore up his election candidacy. Protests over "zero-COVID" occur and allies continue to coalesce against the presumptive juggernaut the Xi regime thinks of the Chinese state and society. This gains little for Kim. The Chinese watch their allies flounder. It doesn't suit a nation of China's stature to standby in all this business. One of Xi's greater failings as a leader is his inability to influence the North in any real way.
This decade sees Kim's era of bluster for concessions ending. Countering North Korea's power and the need to uphold a firm deterrent have been realities for some time now. However, Kim's capacity to game the free world is ending, which may in time foreshadow the end of his own brand of leadership as the bluff.
Bernard Rowan (browan10@yahoo.com) is associate provost for contract administration and academic services and professor of political science at Chicago State University. He is a past fellow of the Korea Foundation and former visiting professor at Hanyang University.
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Somehow, though, the entire business looks like theater. It's expensive, but then again Kim spends most of his country's funds on the state apparatus and weaponry anyway. A student of domestic politics might think Kim is shoring up his credibility, given the U.S.-ROK exercises, named Vigilant Storm. There must be more and greater launches since he can't stop his enemies from showing their military capacities. Or perhaps he hopes to stir up domestic South Korean angst, some pining for past days when his entreaties saw the cancellation of exercises.
Kim also has launched his foreign minister, not yet literally, but on the airwaves. Choe Son-hui ranks high in the cadre, and this past week she declared the official line. Strong and pointed statements and threats about South Korea, the United States, and the North's invincible power spread across the media. One must rank North Korean spokespersons as experts of presumptuous confidence.
Kim Jong-un fails to see that the world doesn't buy the latest ploy in his quiver of bluffing. Pyongyang knows that any real attack is a fool's errand. The regime has the power to attack the South if this were the real objective. It isn't. Kim knows any such attack would result in the end of his regime, and likely the ruin of his nation. Kim's first and final commitment is to his survival as the Great Leader. War would not only mean his regime's death, but also the end of North Korea as he styles it.
Pyongyang had to grind its collective teeth with the tepid results from the U.S. midterm elections, as well as the growing alignment of the Biden and Yoon administrations, including with other allies, most notably Japan. Driving a wedge into this thicket of defense for the cause of freedom won't be easier these days.
The United States, South Korea, and all allies must seek to stop weapons shipments from the North to help Putin in his war for Greater Russia. One day his people will learn that Kim sides with some prizewinning leaders, including Putin and the Great Ayatollah Khomeini. Behold this triumvirate of backward and declining powers. Kim can't take much heart from striving to make money sixty ways under the global markets, either. Wasting it all on glorified fireworks shows is symptomatic of the bluff.
Of course, Kim's friend, Donald Trump, has decided to run for the presidency again. I suggest a ticket with Dennis Rodman. Trump runs for office because he's trying to distract from the legal woes coming his way. He can't take over "The Bachelor" so a pathetic version of The Political Apprentice awaits us yet again.
South Korea and the Biden administration won't play the games of concession-making. They won't show interest in charade parades and fake meetings on the world stage. The peoples of South Korea and the United States show little interest in negotiations for negotiations' sake. While the world moves on, Kim leaves it at displaying his daughter at a missile launch. How pathetic.
China is now past the need for her leader to shore up his election candidacy. Protests over "zero-COVID" occur and allies continue to coalesce against the presumptive juggernaut the Xi regime thinks of the Chinese state and society. This gains little for Kim. The Chinese watch their allies flounder. It doesn't suit a nation of China's stature to standby in all this business. One of Xi's greater failings as a leader is his inability to influence the North in any real way.
This decade sees Kim's era of bluster for concessions ending. Countering North Korea's power and the need to uphold a firm deterrent have been realities for some time now. However, Kim's capacity to game the free world is ending, which may in time foreshadow the end of his own brand of leadership as the bluff.
Bernard Rowan (browan10@yahoo.com) is associate provost for contract administration and academic services and professor of political science at Chicago State University. He is a past fellow of the Korea Foundation and former visiting professor at Hanyang University.
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