Era of minilateralism

Korea should play more roles in new global order

By Kim Won-soo

Korea must do well as a bridge-builder in this fragmented yet entangled world.

The order among nations is weakening as the world of nations splits into clusters. Big power rivalry is heating up and smaller nations are trying to decide on which side of the fault line they must stand.

Bloc politics has given rise to three worlds, the first one led by the United States, the second led by China and the third consisting of fence-sitting countries similar to the Non-Aligned Movement during the Cold War.

Such fragmentation is putting multilateralism under a serious test. Multilateralism is a major tool that has helped to maintain the liberal international order following the end of World War II. The United Nations and the World Trade Organization are both important products of universal multilateralism.

Multilateralism prospered in the 1990s after the end of the Cold War. But that period was rather short-lived due to the return of big power rivalry in the beginning of the 21st century.

A prime symptom of multilateral fatigue is the paralysis of the U.N. Security Council, especially in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. In place of multilateralism, minilateralism is emerging as a capable alternative to fill the growing gap between the need for international action and the dysfunction of multilateralism. Minilateralism refers to an international framework that governs norm- or decision-making among a small number of countries with shared interests. It is likely to proliferate as a primary framework for coordination within each world.

On the other hand, plurilateralism involves larger numbers of countries and less cohesive decision-making processes than minilateralism. We can define most interactions between each of the two worlds led by a great power and the third world of fence-sitting countries as plurilateralism.

Examples of minilateralism in and around the Indo-Pacific include AUKUS, the Quad, the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity and the Korea-U.S.-Japan trilateral mechanism. The United States is organizing many of these initiatives and seeking to engage Korea in this growing web of minilateral arrangements.

This trend will likely continue as the U.S.-China competition intensifies in the region and beyond. But it does not mean that multilateralism has exhausted its utility and relevance. The reality is quite to the contrary. Today's world is extremely entangled not only in terms of complex networks of supply chains, but also its vulnerability to climate catastrophes and other trans-border hazards. Managing these global challenges still requires robust multilateral approaches. The emerging international order will be based on a mix of multilateralism, plurilateralism and minilateralism. But for the foreseeable future, multilateralism will be put on the back burner until global consensus, particularly among big powers, is restored. Minilateralism will sprout here and there, catering to the specific political and security needs of each world. Plurilateralism will be sought by the United States and China to target specific countries in the third world.

Korea has been a major beneficiary of the post-WWII liberal international order rooted in multilateralism. This means Korea has a big stake in making multilateralism more resilient and robust. Yet in the meantime, it needs to make full use of minilateralism to confront urgent security threats. To take full advantage of both multilateralism and minilateralism, Korea must undertake the following two tasks.

First, Korea must remain inclusive and proactive toward as many minilateral initiatives as possible. The Korea-U.S.-Japan trilateral arrangement should be strengthened and centered upon security issues. At the same time, Korea should make clear that this trilateral partnership does not target any specific neighboring country other than North Korea unless it poses a direct security threat. Korea also needs to do more to prioritize the other trilateral cooperation between Korea, China, and Japan a priority in economic, social, and cultural areas to connect the first and second worlds.

Second, Korea must strive to build bridges among the three worlds. In this regard, President Yoon Suk Yeol's upcoming participation in the G20 in India as well as the ASEAN Plus Three and East Asia summits in Indonesia carries great importance. The G20 is an exceptional forum of plurilateralism attended by the leaders of all three worlds. The ASEAN Plus Three and EAS is also a unique forum for plurilateralism where the leaders of the third world invite the leaders of the other two worlds.

Korea can be a bridge-builder and facilitator as the world explores new types of plurilateralism that can connect the three worlds. Korea is uniquely positioned to excel at this role as it has the rare experience of transitioning from a less-developed to an advanced economy over a relatively short period of time. It is also one of the most stable democracies in the region. Korea can contribute to the return of multilateralism by promoting connection and interdependence in an era of rising minilateralism.

Kim Won-soo (wsk4321@gmail.com) is the former under-secretary-general of the United Nations and high representative for disarmament. He is now a chair professor at Kyung Hee University.