By Michael Breen
As the Constitutional Court moves inexorably towards a decision in the impeachment case of President Park Geun-hye, it is clear now, with the belated surge of support for Park, that whichever way the court rules, a lot of people are going to be unhappy.
The losing side is bound to protest.
Protesters in recent months have been so peaceful that parents feel confident to bring their children along. But if the court sends President Park back to work, some leftists among the pro-impeachment crowd may resort to their violent habits and, after the families and children have gone home, stage futile battles with police.
If, on the other hand, the Court upholds the impeachment and the President is removed from office, some rightists among the flag-waving pro-Park crowd may follow through on threats to attack judges and opposition leaders. A few nutters may chop off fingers or even kill themselves.
The difference, I guess, would be that the right will have a big protest and then call it a day, while the left will occupy Gwanghwamun Square and keep its fantasy revolution going until the scheduled election in December.
The only way to spare us this outcome would be if the court were to reject the impeachment and the President were to then resign.
Of course, the judges in the Constitutional Court ought not to be swayed by any possible impact of their decision, be it a million yelling protesters or a brick through the window. Their job is to focus on what is fair and just and in accordance with the Constitution.
That said, their Constitutional Court is not a criminal court, which means they may consider political factors.
That is why we cannot guess at this stage which way they will rule.
Their dilemma is actually quite simple. Had the Constitutional Court hearings and the parallel, 70-day investigation by the special prosecutorial team produced clear evidence of presidential wrongdoing, the decision would be a foregone conclusion. Park would be out of the Blue House and into jail.
But they didn't. There's no evidence of Swiss bank accounts. There's no report that the President was partying while the Sewol ferry went down. As time has gone by, it has become apparent that Park is innocent. This doesn't mean she is a great President. What it means is that the impeachment was a move too far.
This situation is bewildering. Ask any diplomat and I am sure they will tell you the most commonly asked question in foreign embassies these days is, "What exactly has she done wrong?"
But, here's the rub: the factor that drove the National Assembly's hasty impeachment before the investigation was complete, is the same factor that might well lead the judges to uphold it. That is, public sentiment.
This notion is so powerful in Korea that many Koreans who agree with what I have said above feel too intimidated to say it out loud themselves.
Only now, late in the day, as pro-Park protests have morphed from a few badly dressed and grumpy old men into a major expression of opinion, are people coming out of the woodwork and saying what they think. These crowds would not have swelled had Park been clearly guilty.
What we've got instead is possible peripheral wrongdoing by other people and then a bunch of technicalities. Like, for example, the President or someone else arranged for her friend and her doctor to enter the Blue House without going through normal security. Don't tell me this has never happened before. It's the technical equivalent of an overdue library book.
If it's used as an excuse to impeach, then we can be sure that, even if Park is removed now, history will reinstate her.
Michael Breen is the CEO of Insight Communications Consultants, a public relations company, and author of "The Koreans" and "Kim Jong-il: North Korea's Dear Leader."
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The losing side is bound to protest.
Protesters in recent months have been so peaceful that parents feel confident to bring their children along. But if the court sends President Park back to work, some leftists among the pro-impeachment crowd may resort to their violent habits and, after the families and children have gone home, stage futile battles with police.
If, on the other hand, the Court upholds the impeachment and the President is removed from office, some rightists among the flag-waving pro-Park crowd may follow through on threats to attack judges and opposition leaders. A few nutters may chop off fingers or even kill themselves.
The difference, I guess, would be that the right will have a big protest and then call it a day, while the left will occupy Gwanghwamun Square and keep its fantasy revolution going until the scheduled election in December.
The only way to spare us this outcome would be if the court were to reject the impeachment and the President were to then resign.
Of course, the judges in the Constitutional Court ought not to be swayed by any possible impact of their decision, be it a million yelling protesters or a brick through the window. Their job is to focus on what is fair and just and in accordance with the Constitution.
That said, their Constitutional Court is not a criminal court, which means they may consider political factors.
That is why we cannot guess at this stage which way they will rule.
Their dilemma is actually quite simple. Had the Constitutional Court hearings and the parallel, 70-day investigation by the special prosecutorial team produced clear evidence of presidential wrongdoing, the decision would be a foregone conclusion. Park would be out of the Blue House and into jail.
But they didn't. There's no evidence of Swiss bank accounts. There's no report that the President was partying while the Sewol ferry went down. As time has gone by, it has become apparent that Park is innocent. This doesn't mean she is a great President. What it means is that the impeachment was a move too far.
This situation is bewildering. Ask any diplomat and I am sure they will tell you the most commonly asked question in foreign embassies these days is, "What exactly has she done wrong?"
But, here's the rub: the factor that drove the National Assembly's hasty impeachment before the investigation was complete, is the same factor that might well lead the judges to uphold it. That is, public sentiment.
This notion is so powerful in Korea that many Koreans who agree with what I have said above feel too intimidated to say it out loud themselves.
Only now, late in the day, as pro-Park protests have morphed from a few badly dressed and grumpy old men into a major expression of opinion, are people coming out of the woodwork and saying what they think. These crowds would not have swelled had Park been clearly guilty.
What we've got instead is possible peripheral wrongdoing by other people and then a bunch of technicalities. Like, for example, the President or someone else arranged for her friend and her doctor to enter the Blue House without going through normal security. Don't tell me this has never happened before. It's the technical equivalent of an overdue library book.
If it's used as an excuse to impeach, then we can be sure that, even if Park is removed now, history will reinstate her.
Michael Breen is the CEO of Insight Communications Consultants, a public relations company, and author of "The Koreans" and "Kim Jong-il: North Korea's Dear Leader."
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