Revenge of the tidal flat

By Bernhard J. Seliger

When in mid-August, just before Korea´s national holiday (Gwangbokjeol), the World Scout Jamboree ended, a catastrophe narrowly could be avoided. With the additional urge due to an upcoming typhoon, 40,000 scouts were evacuated from the original jamboree site in Saemangeum. While the organization of the evacuation of the scouts worked flawlessly, and once again confirmed Korea's reputation to be able in rapid planning, before that reputation took a heavy blow.

The jamboree site from the beginning suffered from shortcomings: the promised greening of the only recently reclaimed area failed due to the high salt concentration in the ground, so that no escape from the pitiless sun was possible, summer rain and the swampy ground were ideal to breed millions of mosquitos, the sanitary installations were insufficient ― hundreds of scouts already fainted or got sick during the opening ceremony. Unfortunately, all of this could have been foreseen. Indeed, were it not so sad for the scouts who came from all over the world to hold a peaceful and exciting meeting, one could feel a grim sense of content that years of warning about the detrimental reclamation activities in Saemangeum now became vindicated.

Once, Saemangeum was one of the most productive tidal flat systems of Korea, providing not only a resting place and food for hundred of thousands of shorebirds but also a livelihood for tens of thousands of shell fishers. When in the 1980s the discussion of the reclamation of this vast area began, the goal was to increase the agricultural area of South Korea.

South Korea, one of the most densely populated countries in the world, saw a rapid growth of population after the Korean War, but food resources for a long time were scarce, and adding urgently needed fields seemed to be a good idea. Later on, rapidly industrializing South Korea, which became an economic powerhouse out of abject poverty, also saw great advances in agricultural productivity and thereby less pressure to feed the population.

However, by now plans for the reclamation had progressed. And these plans were huge, making Saemangeum the largest reclamation area not only on the Korean Peninsula but indeed around the Yellow Sea. When in 1998 Kim Dae-Jung became President, the debate on the Saemangeum project restarted: should it be finished even if additional agricultural land was not really needed anymore?

The political answer to this was foreseeable, but unfortunately wrong: the Korean government had spent already huge money, several billion U.S. dollars, on the reclamation project. How could such an investment be "wasted"? The fallacy here involved is a wrong view of so-called sunk costs. Sunk costs are costs already incurred, and which are non-recoverable, and which accordingly should not really affect decisions made for the future. For example, starting to build sea walls was such sunk cost.

When it was clear that the original idea to convert the area to agricultural land was not any more viable, politicians did not really consider sopping the project ― which economic as well as ecological reasoning would have required ― but instead looked for alternative ways of using the newly reclaimed area. As for now, the idea to build huge industrial complexes there failed. Unfortunately, for the politicians indeed the course of reason ― stopping projects, if they are not viable anymore, is politically much more risky than just finishing projects. Who wants to be responsible for stopping a project and thereby openly acknowledging that billions of dollars are wasted?

Politically, it mostly pays off to spend another couple of billions of U.S. dollars to finish a project, and then find some alternative use. This was also the secret rationale behind the jamboree decision, despite the obvious unsuitability of the area for such a large-scale meeting in the scorching summer heat among strong summer storms. While the work on infrastructure planned for the event, including the airport, has barely started, the sunk cost problem comes up again: is it better to scrap an airport plan which is obsolete, or better to finish it anyway and then hope that someone will use it? The political answer, unfortunately, seems to be clear.

But, what are the alternatives? Saemangeum once was one of the most important wetlands of Korea. While new large-scale reclamation stopped by now (after 75 percent of tidal flats already disappeared in Korea over the course of the last 70 years), there are myriad challenges and threats to the still remaining tidal flats; new roads, new construction, new seawalls. Protecting tidal flats does not mean prohibiting any human activity; instead, as the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands of international importance says, it is "wise use" which is necessary.

This wise use can include sustainable fisheries, sustainable tourism and other forms of livelihood activities. South Korea was successful in attracting the Ramsar Regional Center for Northeast Asia to Suncheon, another important tidal flat area. That area, home to thousands of overwintering hooded cranes, became a center for Korean-style mass eco-tourism, with millions of visitors coming every year. I do not deny that this also creates new challenges, e.g. through the high concentration of birds in relatively small areas where they are artificially fed.

But, it is a way to preserve wetlands and their inhabitants, birds, fish and mammals. Fortunately, by now South Korea at least symbolically recognized the value of tidal flats by adding them to World Heritage, together with China. Even North Korea is hoped to follow soon with at least one key tidal flat site.

Had Saemangeum embarked on a similar trajectory, the current blow of the failed jamboree would not have happened. And this blow is not a singular event. It also puts a big question mark on the next high-level international application of Korea, namely that for the Busan World Expo. The pristine tidal flat of Saemangeum is history.

But even now, it is better to look for a sustainable way to develop Saemangeum; not as an industrial zone zombie, but as a slowly re-naturized zone. The jamboree of 2023 was not a highlight for South Korea like the one held in Goseong in 1991. Now is the chance to learn from this debacle, and embark on a new policy of a "wise use" of wetlands.

Dr. Bernhard J. Seliger is a resident representative of the Hanns Seidel Foundation (HSF) in Korea, based in Seoul. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, he traveled frequently to North Korea, where he implemented projects on forestry, environment and renewable energy as well as medical cooperation. He is an honorary citizen of Seoul and Gangwon Province.