Endurance of trilateral meeting depends on US, Japan
After their historic trilateral summit at Camp David on Friday, the leaders of South Korea, America and Japan appeared content.
U.S. President Joe Biden seemed to be the happiest ― for obvious reasons.
Biden has finally made Seoul and Tokyo bury their historical troubles and join Washington's efforts to keep Beijing in check, regionally and globally. It was Biden's diplomatic achievement, all of which, no doubt, will also help in his attempts to win reelection.
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who does not want his country to become a distant runner-up to China in Asia, tried not to look too joyous. Besides, Tokyo won Washington's support for releasing nuclear-tainted water into the Pacific Ocean.
Ostensibly, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol looked no different from the two other leaders. However, Yoon could not completely conceal appearing relatively rigid. He could not help it. Yoon is shouldering the biggest political risk of the three. At least half of his people remain unsure if it is all right for Seoul to move toward Tokyo so unilaterally.
This quandary shows what Washington should do to ensure the longevity of the summit's agreements. After Camp David, the three countries will jointly face common security and economic challenges, therefore they elected to sign defense, diplomacy and technology accords. For this, their top leaders and related cabinet ministers will meet annually. It fell short of a trilateral alliance ― or a little NATO ― but came as close as possible to it, for now.
At stake is how to guarantee its continuity even after the seat of political power changes hands in each capital. Biden might have wanted to institutionalize new trilateral ties even if his predecessor regains the presidency. Or he seeks reelection based on this and other legacies. Former President Donald Trump inherited his Democratic predecessor's "pivot to Asia," a euphemism for an anti-China policy. Winning in the hegemonic battle between the Group of Two (China and the U.S.) has long become a bipartisan policy in Washington, although their methods and procedures might vary.
That leaves Seoul and Tokyo. Some U.S. gurus say the agreement will break down if ultra-rightists take power in Japan. However, Japan has been dominated by right-wing nationalists for decades, if not centuries. The only exception was the brief emergence of socialists and centrists in the 1990s. There are not many, if any, differences between moderate and ultra-right-wing politicians as far as Japan's diplomacy is concerned. Dovish Fumio Kishida is hawkish Shinzo Abe's alter ego.
Seoul will be different, for better or worse.
Yoon is an unusual South Korean leader. He is either highly shortsighted or too farsighted. The right-wing leader pursues a "futuristic" partnership with Japan, although Tokyo has not changed its past stance, with its leaders intensifying their sovereignty claims over the Dokdo islets and paying tribute to the war shrine on National Liberation Day.
Many political and diplomatic experts here doubt whether Yoon's policy on Japan will survive his immediate successor, left or right. If U.S. officials think optimistically about this, they will be wrong and regret it.
It's not because Koreans cling to the past most persistently among all former colonial people worldwide. It is rooted in a unique and unilateral historical relationship between the two countries. Korea had long been a conduit of Chinese culture to insular Japan. What it got in return was pillaging by Japanese pirates as far back as the 14th century. Japan invaded and devastated Korea for seven years in the late-16th century and forcefully ― and illegally ― occupied it during the first half of the 20th century. Some Japanese people ― or many of them subconsciously ― still think they did so to civilize a barbaric neighbor. Koreans have never accepted it and will not do so in the future.
The U.S. has aggravated this diplomatic imbalance for nearly one-and-a-half centuries. If America wants to continue trilateral cooperation in this part of the world against China and Russia, it must first rectify historical wrongs by forcing Japan to change its mind and act.
Russia, China and Japan have confronted America or will do so again if circumstances change.
Even if reunified, Korea will not or, more frankly, cannot do so.
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