Europe looks to build bridges beyond Russia

By Andrew Hammond

The new European Political Community (EPC) of almost 50 nations has generated much media interest since its formation in 2022, yet its fundamental purpose remains uncertain.

For, amidst what are massive, shared challenges facing the presidents and prime ministers around the table on Thursday, it is wholly unclear whether the new "club of nations" will be a significant moment in Europe's decades-long integration project, or perhaps little more than a footnote in this history.

So it was these core questions of mandate and relevance that were tackled again on Thursday as 47 leaders from greater Europe, plus states including Israel and Turkey, met in Moldova. The city of Odesa in Ukraine is only 200 kilometers from the summit venue in Chisinau, and it is therefore fitting that the ongoing Russian invasion of that nation will frame discussions.

Perhaps the key question facing the leaders is how such a vast grouping of both the 27 EU members plus non-EU members, including the United Kingdom, can best work together in common cause on 'hard' issues like security amid Russia's invasion, plus also urgent, 'softer' ones too like energy.

The 47 states invited to last Thursday's big meeting included 20 non-EU powers such as the United Kingdom, Norway, Switzerland, Ukraine, Israel and Turkey. Given the disparate nature of the nations in attendance, the group includes some bilateral foes, not just friends, such as Turkey and Greece, plus Armenia and Azerbaijan, not to mention controversial, polarizing leaders like Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and Turkey's newly re-elected President Recep Erdogan.

While the new body's mission is not yet 100 percent clear, the early expectation is that it will convene twice a year, including in Spain later in 2023. Moreover, the 2024 summit will be symbolically staged in the United Kingdom, the only nation ever to leave the EU.

A key aim for many of the 27 EU states too is also to embrace accession countries, including Ukraine, some of which like Turkey are losing patience in their very long wait for bloc membership ― and in doing so, seeking to counter attempts by Russia and China to gain influence in the continent.

One of the other drivers of the new EPC is Brexit given that this development created a new non-EU power in Western Europe. This is already changing the EU's relationship with other non-EU European countries, including Norway, Switzerland and Turkey.

Each of these states has developed relations with the EU that ― most obviously in the case of Norway and Switzerland, but also to a lesser extent others like Turkey ― were intended as a means to the end of eventual EU membership or at least closer relations with the EU. Brexit has not ― yet ― thrown these processes into reverse, with eventual accession to the Brussels-based club remaining an option, but it does open up new possibilities centered on continued non-membership.

There has been some limited discussion as to whether Brexit might open opportunities for a radical overhaul of Europe's institutional architecture. Such ambitious plans had faded, but they do point to opportunities for potential future change, potentially via the EPC.

For strong advocates of the EPC, the body could also serve as a potential bridge to a larger EU and a framework for more permanent continental integration. The EPC could start this process by building a consensus between participating states and the EU.

Take the example of energy where cooperative frameworks could be developed where there is, for instance, scope for signing more energy agreements with Norway building upon the recent bilateral 'Green Alliance,' plus constructing green hydrogen infrastructure across the region. Another example is security and defense partnerships where the war in Ukraine has exposed Europe's weak, existing architecture and highlighted the need for more European cooperation, including in areas like cybersecurity.

Such reform may be needed to deal with wider global trends impacting the region. Europe already feels the pull of different world powers, including the United States and China, and it also struggles locally with the geopolitical disruptions of Russia.

This global multipolarity has brought greater uncertainty to Europe. If population projections hold, it is Turkey and the United Kingdom (potentially Russia too) that may be amongst the most populous countries in Europe by mid-century, with the EU thereby in the midst of large states with competing agendas.

Even before the invasion of Ukraine, it was Russia that posed the most challenges for the EU. Post-pandemic and Brexit, Moscow had therefore hoped that the EU 27 would have a period of introspection. However, that has not proven to be the case so far.

So what Thursday's summit showcased is that the EU, and the wider community of nations in the EPC, face first order challenges that include Russia. How the Brussels-based club of 27 states, in particular, responds will not just frame future relations with key non-EU states including the United Kingdom, but also determine its wider place in the world to boot.

Andrew Hammond is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.