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By Bernard Rowan
Last week, and this week, the United States used its daunting military might to take down a large Chinese surveillance balloon and several other smaller flying objects, so far not fully identified. The White House spokesperson has reassured us they are not extraterrestrial. Media outlets raise doubt. Each sitting and downing has involved some temporary closing of airspace by NORAD, the North American Aerospace Defense Command. Thus far, few flights saw delays.
Global powers are not content to sew instability across swaths of the geographical planet. They now infest the cyber world with hacking and espionage. Further, with drones and things, the world is "going where no one has gone before." The morass creates havoc in our atmosphere and outer space itself. Where humanity goes, so goes division, competition, and war, among other realities. That does sound dour ― if true. There are more reasons to use our Earth's atmosphere and space for cooperation and positive international development.
I was curious so looked online to find some readily available statistics on related matters. From May of last year, the Union of Concerned Scientists estimated there were 5,465 satellites orbiting space. Their website can record the list and signal their related purposes. While most are not for military use, the number of satellites is growing, including those for military purposes. Between three and five hundred are military in nature. I hypothesize that many commercial satellites are also used for noncommercial purposes.
Turning to drones, BusinessInsider.com estimated in 2019 there were 21,000 military drones across 100 countries. The number reaches much higher today: Iran sends many to Russia every week. Writing for American Defense News this month, Gwen Stokes has an interesting article that shows our world is now the Star Wars of the present. UAVs or "unmanned aerial vehicles" are the bold and brave frontier of today and tomorrow.
With the capacity to fly and more precisely target munitions or payloads while not putting military personnel directly at risk, these technologies surely deserve further investment, for peaceful and defensive purposes. They are reliable and provide comparative advantages for various commercial and military interests.
The Chinese balloon incident should not be a Sputnik moment in Sino-American relations. The wobbly dirigible amounted to a "spy balloon." However, it pales in comparison to other more formidable Chinese spying technologies. The Chinese rightly point out that the United States and perhaps the militaries of 100 nations or more have spy balloons and similar craft. I think too much domestic and rival politics has entered America's "shooting down" of these "threats." The missiles and aircraft sent to address the intruding objects are costly. Does it seem the USA has knee-jerked into "vigilant surveillance," a form of saber-rattling, perhaps?
Drone and satellite wars promise an increase in the costs of warfare over time. Even more, they will increase international instability if efforts to address them in arms pacts, treaties, and agreed conventions are absent. As such, the United States, China, Europe, and Russia have a duty to introduce norms, now that they and we have opened Pandora's box. The dangers to human liberty and decency face further compromise in this brave new world. Whatever flies above us can endanger countless lives and property. It seemingly happens with the push of a few computer buttons.
It is discouraging to note the main powers who need to forge such norms and agreements are not likely to do so today or soon. After the USSR and the opening of the West to China, things are not better. In less than a century, new lines of division and strife wrinkle the USA and Europe, China, Russia, and their allies. The half-life of the New World Order was far too brief. It is all much more exciting and seductive than making sure basic needs are met worldwide. There are still more planets queuing up for exploration and "the human advance." Forgive my pessimism: where in these advances lies the path of peace and a better world?
Bernard Rowan (browan10@yahoo.com) is associate provost for contract administration and academic services and professor of political science at Chicago State University. He is a past fellow of the Korea Foundation and former visiting professor at Hanyang University.
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