By Michael Breen
As he approaches the second year of his term in office -- normally the moment in Korea's "imperial presidency" system when the traditional resentment against leadership is unleashed and approval ratings begin the inexorable lurch south -- the stars are strangely aligning for President Moon Jae-in.
If all goes well with his summit with North Korea's Kim Jong-un on April 27 and with the Kim-Trump summit a few weeks later, North-South reconciliation could well become the theme that sustains the rest of his presidential term.
Echoing this possibility, Moon last week referred to the upcoming U.S.-NK summit in particular as "significant in world history," saying he expected "a big step toward the goals of denuclearizing the peninsula and achieving permanent peace."
If this seems over-giddy, consider this: In previous high-level dealings with North Korea, the South has either been sidelined by Pyongyang's insistence on talking directly with the Americans or -- on the occasion of the previous inter-Korean summits in 2000 and 2007 -- been undermined by a lack of real support from its U.S. ally.
This time, in contrast, the allies are singing from the same hymn sheet.
Moon, for example, is as committed as the Americans to denuclearization. Previous South Korean administrations tried to make the right noises about nuclear weapons, but, truth be told, considered the issue an irritation, something for the Americans to take care of.
For its part, the biggest star in the galaxy, the US, has dropped its posture that a summit -- which North Korea has yearned for forever -- is some kind of reward for good behavior. In complete contrast to all his predecessors, President Trump is looking to meet Kim Jong-un, not to sign the final deal on denuclearization but to kickstart a process towards one.
There's more: The South Koreans this time know that this U.S.-North Korea meeting is the more important of the two separate summits and, far from behaving childishly and insisting on being there _ as some previous South Korean administrations might have -- Moon sees his summit as a positive opportunity to smooth the way for the Kim-Trump meeting.
Put together, this combination of factors seems to suggest timeliness. The time is finally ripe for something meaningful to happen.
But, and we have to face a big but, what it actually represents is not so much an opportunity than the hint of one. It represents, if you like, a silver lining. The cloud remains in that we have no clue as to what Kim has in mind.
The concerning thing is that there has been no announced change of national strategic direction in North Korea, let alone a significant power shift -- at least not that we know about -- that might give us reason to be optimistic.
It is entirely possible that Kim is doing just what his father and grandfather did; changing tack under sanctions pressure to earn some dollars, and/or, as Trump's belligerent national security advisor John Bolton believes, buying time to complete his nuclear development program. We just don't know.
But between peace and love and disappointment, there is a third possibility and this is where Moon's role is vital. It is possible that Kim wants to change things but that he has some flaky notions in his head as to what to do. He can run these by Moon for a read on how they will fly with the Americans. (To give a flavor, some years back, during a moment of warming ties, a senior North Korean general visited the United States for official meetings and astonished the Americans by proposing that the United States and North Korea form an alliance against Japan.)
If that were to happen, you can see Trump's summit tweet now. "Met Rocket man. Had a nice meal. Gave him a Lego set as a present and put him back on the train. John Bolton just walked in with a smile on his face. Sad."
Or, maybe his view of denuclearization is that, we all put our weapons down. To which, Moon can explain that the issue at hand is not nuclear weapons, but his -- Kim's -- nuclear weapons.
Or, Moon may see fit to explain to Washington that Seoul supports the idea of a Korean War peace treaty and other arrangements to give the North Koreans a sense that their integrity as a state will be honored. That might be hard, given he is the president of a country that claims that North Korea rightfully belongs to it, but stranger things have happened.
Whether the summits go well or not is up in the air. But if they do, the key role may well be played, not by Kim Jong-un or Donald Trump, but by Moon Jae-in. At least, is what the stars say.
Michael Breen can be reached at mike.breen@insightscomms.com.
As he approaches the second year of his term in office -- normally the moment in Korea's "imperial presidency" system when the traditional resentment against leadership is unleashed and approval ratings begin the inexorable lurch south -- the stars are strangely aligning for President Moon Jae-in.
If all goes well with his summit with North Korea's Kim Jong-un on April 27 and with the Kim-Trump summit a few weeks later, North-South reconciliation could well become the theme that sustains the rest of his presidential term.
Echoing this possibility, Moon last week referred to the upcoming U.S.-NK summit in particular as "significant in world history," saying he expected "a big step toward the goals of denuclearizing the peninsula and achieving permanent peace."
If this seems over-giddy, consider this: In previous high-level dealings with North Korea, the South has either been sidelined by Pyongyang's insistence on talking directly with the Americans or -- on the occasion of the previous inter-Korean summits in 2000 and 2007 -- been undermined by a lack of real support from its U.S. ally.
This time, in contrast, the allies are singing from the same hymn sheet.
Moon, for example, is as committed as the Americans to denuclearization. Previous South Korean administrations tried to make the right noises about nuclear weapons, but, truth be told, considered the issue an irritation, something for the Americans to take care of.
For its part, the biggest star in the galaxy, the US, has dropped its posture that a summit -- which North Korea has yearned for forever -- is some kind of reward for good behavior. In complete contrast to all his predecessors, President Trump is looking to meet Kim Jong-un, not to sign the final deal on denuclearization but to kickstart a process towards one.
There's more: The South Koreans this time know that this U.S.-North Korea meeting is the more important of the two separate summits and, far from behaving childishly and insisting on being there _ as some previous South Korean administrations might have -- Moon sees his summit as a positive opportunity to smooth the way for the Kim-Trump meeting.
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Put together, this combination of factors seems to suggest timeliness. The time is finally ripe for something meaningful to happen.
But, and we have to face a big but, what it actually represents is not so much an opportunity than the hint of one. It represents, if you like, a silver lining. The cloud remains in that we have no clue as to what Kim has in mind.
The concerning thing is that there has been no announced change of national strategic direction in North Korea, let alone a significant power shift -- at least not that we know about -- that might give us reason to be optimistic.
It is entirely possible that Kim is doing just what his father and grandfather did; changing tack under sanctions pressure to earn some dollars, and/or, as Trump's belligerent national security advisor John Bolton believes, buying time to complete his nuclear development program. We just don't know.
But between peace and love and disappointment, there is a third possibility and this is where Moon's role is vital. It is possible that Kim wants to change things but that he has some flaky notions in his head as to what to do. He can run these by Moon for a read on how they will fly with the Americans. (To give a flavor, some years back, during a moment of warming ties, a senior North Korean general visited the United States for official meetings and astonished the Americans by proposing that the United States and North Korea form an alliance against Japan.)
If that were to happen, you can see Trump's summit tweet now. "Met Rocket man. Had a nice meal. Gave him a Lego set as a present and put him back on the train. John Bolton just walked in with a smile on his face. Sad."
Or, maybe his view of denuclearization is that, we all put our weapons down. To which, Moon can explain that the issue at hand is not nuclear weapons, but his -- Kim's -- nuclear weapons.
Or, Moon may see fit to explain to Washington that Seoul supports the idea of a Korean War peace treaty and other arrangements to give the North Koreans a sense that their integrity as a state will be honored. That might be hard, given he is the president of a country that claims that North Korea rightfully belongs to it, but stranger things have happened.
Whether the summits go well or not is up in the air. But if they do, the key role may well be played, not by Kim Jong-un or Donald Trump, but by Moon Jae-in. At least, is what the stars say.
Michael Breen can be reached at mike.breen@insightscomms.com.
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