Introducing missile interceptors to limit options
By Oh Young-jin
The Center for Strategic and International Studies, a U.S. think tank, recently called for the early deployment of advanced missile interceptors in South Korea, giving a boost to supporters for Terminal High Altitude Areas Defense (THAAD) as an option against an ever-provocative North Korea.
President Park Geun-hye broke a long-held "strategic silence" on this controversial issue after the North's Jan.6 nuclear test, dropping a hint at a willingness to embrace it.
Her move was seen as a pressure tactic targeting China for its refusal to go along for tougher sanctions against its client state.
At least for now, she shouldn't make her commitment and, rather it is time for her to restore her ambiguous status on the THAAD, although Washington tries to "persuade" Seoul to accommodate it just for the defense of its 28,000 troops stationed in the South.
There are three reasons that Seoul would be better off without THAAD on its soil.
First, it is for the future of its partnership with Beijing and alliance with the U.S.
From the South, it can't afford to choose one over the other. China is Korea's top trading partner and receives one quarter of its exports so their economies are so closely coupled that it is literally true that if Beijing's economy sneezes, that of Korea would catch a cold.
Seoul's adoption of the U.S.-made anti-missile system means putting itself at the center of the hegemonic contest between the world's two superpowers. Beijing has made its objections to THAAD very clear, being concerned that the related radar system is very wide in scope and intrusive in nature.
Already, China appears uncomfortable about Seoul getting back into the U.S.-led alliance after it made an unpopular agreement with Japan about the issue of comfort women, the sex slaves forced to serve Japanese soldiers during World War II at the end of last year. Korea and China, victims of the brutal imperial Japanese rule, have acted in concert against Japan, one reason that has helped tighten the two countries' relationship.
Seoul may have felt frustrated by Beijing's failure to discipline the North as it wished but more important is how to strengthen the bilateral ties for the future. China has filled in the void of the defunct Soviet Union as superpower and it should be recognized as a force to stay and exert a growing influence on the regional balance of power.
It's Park's job to ensure the U.S. doesn't feel alienated. But one certain thing is that Korea has paid its dues for a membership in the U.S.-provided nuclear umbrella when it has made up with Japan, however transient it may prove, and has given its full backing for a recent U.S. effort to bring China on board for North Korea sanctions.
Secondly, the Jan. 6 blast has not made the North's threat any bigger and more serious. First, analysts concluded that it was either a nuclear test, bigger than the previous three, or a boosted fission bomb, a midway point on its path toward H-bomb. Its capability to miniaturize warheads is still in doubt, while a cold launch technology for a missile from a submarine is still years before completion. In other words, if the North's danger is felt greater now, the possibility is that it is an illusion and believing it is like playing into the North's hand.
So there is no case for THAAD introduction for now at the risk of added tensions. It is time for Seoul to regain calmness and get back into a waiting game it has waged more or less for about six decades with the North. As CSIS pointed out in its report, the North is in a dilemma because it needs to open up for survival but it increases the risk of the regime's collapse.
Finally, even if the North's Jan. 6 blast proves to be an H-bomb, it would increase its nuclear arsenal so using it as grounds for THAAD introduction is like a square peg in a round hole. It won't be too late to think of it, the next time when the North test-fires a long-range rocket. By then, China may give up its hope of keeping the North as a buffer against the outside force and the North would find itself in a real trouble.
Oh Young-jin is The Korea Times' chief editorial writer and can be contacted at foolsdie5@ktimes.com. The shortened version of this article can be found as the main editorial in printed papers under the title, "No to THAAD."
By Oh Young-jin
The Center for Strategic and International Studies, a U.S. think tank, recently called for the early deployment of advanced missile interceptors in South Korea, giving a boost to supporters for Terminal High Altitude Areas Defense (THAAD) as an option against an ever-provocative North Korea.
President Park Geun-hye broke a long-held "strategic silence" on this controversial issue after the North's Jan.6 nuclear test, dropping a hint at a willingness to embrace it.
Her move was seen as a pressure tactic targeting China for its refusal to go along for tougher sanctions against its client state.
At least for now, she shouldn't make her commitment and, rather it is time for her to restore her ambiguous status on the THAAD, although Washington tries to "persuade" Seoul to accommodate it just for the defense of its 28,000 troops stationed in the South.
There are three reasons that Seoul would be better off without THAAD on its soil.
First, it is for the future of its partnership with Beijing and alliance with the U.S.
From the South, it can't afford to choose one over the other. China is Korea's top trading partner and receives one quarter of its exports so their economies are so closely coupled that it is literally true that if Beijing's economy sneezes, that of Korea would catch a cold.
Seoul's adoption of the U.S.-made anti-missile system means putting itself at the center of the hegemonic contest between the world's two superpowers. Beijing has made its objections to THAAD very clear, being concerned that the related radar system is very wide in scope and intrusive in nature.
Already, China appears uncomfortable about Seoul getting back into the U.S.-led alliance after it made an unpopular agreement with Japan about the issue of comfort women, the sex slaves forced to serve Japanese soldiers during World War II at the end of last year. Korea and China, victims of the brutal imperial Japanese rule, have acted in concert against Japan, one reason that has helped tighten the two countries' relationship.
Seoul may have felt frustrated by Beijing's failure to discipline the North as it wished but more important is how to strengthen the bilateral ties for the future. China has filled in the void of the defunct Soviet Union as superpower and it should be recognized as a force to stay and exert a growing influence on the regional balance of power.
It's Park's job to ensure the U.S. doesn't feel alienated. But one certain thing is that Korea has paid its dues for a membership in the U.S.-provided nuclear umbrella when it has made up with Japan, however transient it may prove, and has given its full backing for a recent U.S. effort to bring China on board for North Korea sanctions.
Secondly, the Jan. 6 blast has not made the North's threat any bigger and more serious. First, analysts concluded that it was either a nuclear test, bigger than the previous three, or a boosted fission bomb, a midway point on its path toward H-bomb. Its capability to miniaturize warheads is still in doubt, while a cold launch technology for a missile from a submarine is still years before completion. In other words, if the North's danger is felt greater now, the possibility is that it is an illusion and believing it is like playing into the North's hand.
So there is no case for THAAD introduction for now at the risk of added tensions. It is time for Seoul to regain calmness and get back into a waiting game it has waged more or less for about six decades with the North. As CSIS pointed out in its report, the North is in a dilemma because it needs to open up for survival but it increases the risk of the regime's collapse.
Finally, even if the North's Jan. 6 blast proves to be an H-bomb, it would increase its nuclear arsenal so using it as grounds for THAAD introduction is like a square peg in a round hole. It won't be too late to think of it, the next time when the North test-fires a long-range rocket. By then, China may give up its hope of keeping the North as a buffer against the outside force and the North would find itself in a real trouble.
Oh Young-jin is The Korea Times' chief editorial writer and can be contacted at foolsdie5@ktimes.com. The shortened version of this article can be found as the main editorial in printed papers under the title, "No to THAAD."
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