Clarity, not ambiguity

By Shim Jae-yun

With the smell of gunpowder in the air, the Alaska meeting between the United States and China last week was terrifying. Visibly emotional, the top officials from the two superpowers exchanged acrimonious barbs against each other on highly sensitive issues. TV footage of the meeting suggested that they were engaging in real war.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken provoked his Chinese counterpart Yang Jiechi by raising the issue of China's aggressive behavior and reportedly extreme human rights violations in regions like Hong Kong, Tibet and Xinjiang, as well as in Taiwan. For China, these ethnic and territorial issues are all the more grave as they are closely related to the survival of the nation itself.

Yang hit back fiercely, condemning the U.S. for meddling in China's domestic affairs. He even recalled the U.S.' "dirty" history of slaughtering Black Americans. For China, which considers itself composed of 56 races, the possible separation of even one minority group will inevitably produce a domino effect, threatening the sustainability of the "One China" regime. The aforementioned territories, in particular, have been the weakest links for China in this regard.

Blinken also maintains similar standards in dealing with North Korea. He once cynically described North Korean leader Kim Jong-un as "one of the world's worst tyrants." Blinken has been regarded as the "alter ego" of U.S. President Joe Biden, in that they have been emphasizing the role of U.S. leadership based on firm principles and values-oriented diplomacy.

In addition to the Biden administration's priority on human rights and other value-intensive policies, Blinken's personal convictions and experience seem to be significant factors. His behaviors in Seoul and Alaska have been more radical than expected, especially for his first "diplomatic" encounters with his Asian counterparts.

Blinken's stepfather is Samuel Pisar, a Polish-born Jew and Holocaust survivor who escaped from the horrific Auschwitz concentration camp in southern Poland during World War II. He was the only survivor of the approximately 900 students at his Polish school. Afterward, as a lawyer and author, he dedicated himself to commemorating the Holocaust and boosting human rights until he passed away in 2015. He greatly influenced his stepson, Blinken.

As indicated by the Thucydides Trap theory ― when an emerging power threatening to displace an existing great power produces a tendency towards war ― the current confrontation between the U.S. and China has been a fait accompli for some time now. What matters is whether the two countries will engage in a real war, beyond the current clash on the economic and diplomatic fronts. This situation may push Seoul into a further dilemma. The latest thorny issue may be the launch of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), comprising the U.S., Japan, India and Australia.

Possible pressures from the U.S. and China to have South Korea stand by their side will likely grow. South Korea has been maintaining "strategic ambiguity," especially regarding China. But this approach might not be the right answer any longer, given the apparent shift of policy by the U.S. and the rapidly changing security situation surrounding the Korean Peninsula.

Ambiguity may generate distrust, and growing distrust will weaken South Korea's stance. Seoul officials need to be more self-confident and explain the country's position in a more transparent and honest manner to their dialogue partners. For instance, they will need to explain the inevitability of the South Korea-U.S. alliance in light of the division between South and North Korea to China, and conversely, the importance of China as the nation's largest trading partner to the U.S.

For the U.S., it is not desirable to stick to the "Complete, Verifiable, and Irreversible Dismantlement" (CVID) of North Korea's nuclear program, as such an unconditional requirement has already proven to be ineffective, despite strenuous pursuit of North Korea's denuclearization over the past 30 years. Further, North Korea is currently facing very serious difficulties due to intensifying international sanctions, economic failure and the lingering COVID-19 pandemic.

Given this reality, it is totally inappropriate to expect the recalcitrant North to give up the nuclear card first, which it regards as its last and only tool for the survival of its regime. Blinken's convictions about human rights are understandable in many senses. Yet, touching on such human rights issues at this time is not feasible as well as not helpful in finding a solution. Doing so will only make the matter more complicated and, worse still, it can prompt Pyongyang to resort to further provocative acts like the test-firing of ballistic missiles, following Sunday's firing of short-range ones.

Setting aside the CVID, it is time for Seoul and Washington to turn their eyes to the 2018 Singapore agreement and find a breakthrough to the nuclear issue from a broader perspective. Though the Biden administration has been pushing for "anything but Trump" policies, such a stance should be changed, at least in dealing with security issues ― North Korea in particular.

The U.S. needs to help the Moon Jae-in administration so that it can gain further momentum in pursuing the "peace process" on the Korean Peninsula. South Korea, for its part, should be more assertive and bold in pushing for its initiatives toward the peace process. It needs to play a leading role in the promotion of regional peace. In this vein, "strategic clarity" will be far more effective than "strategic ambiguity."

Shim Jae-yun is an editorial writer for The Korea Times.