North Korea should no longer resort to brinksmanship
North Korea's escalation of tensions with military provocations is a typical case of its signature brinksmanship tactics. The Kim Jong-un regime appears to have gone back to such tactics since Kim's second summit with U.S. President Donald Trump collapsed in Hanoi in late February.
On Thursday, the North launched two short-range missiles from its northwestern region into the East Sea. They are said to be similar to Russia's Iskander missiles. One flew 420 kilometers and the other 270 kilometers. The test-firing followed the May 4 launch of similar projectiles identified as "tactical guided weapons." These provocations came after the North test-fired what it claimed were short-range tactical weapons April 17.
The show of force was apparently aimed at putting pressure on the U.S. to accept Pyongyang's demands for sanctions relief in return for partial denuclearization steps. In fact, the Kim regime has already issued a virtual ultimatum for the U.S. to change course. However, the Trump administration has reaffirmed that sanctions will remain until the North denuclearizes completely.
It is against this backdrop that Pyongyang has made a series of missile launches to extract concessions from Washington. Even though it argued the test-firings were part of "routine" and "self-defensive" drills, the North cannot avoid accusations that the tests were provocations apparently intended to vent Pyongyang's frustrations at the summit failure and the punishing sanctions.
It is important to note a U.S. media report that the Thursday launches were of ballistic missiles. If the report is true, the Kim regime cannot help but face condemnation that it has violated multiple U.N. resolutions banning ballistic missile technology. The North's actions could also run counter to a military agreement signed with South Korea last September to end inter-Korean hostility.
However, Pyongyang does not appear to have crossed the "red line" to go back to the 2017 confrontation with the U.S. in which fire and fury prevailed. Still, no one can rule out the possibility of the North engaging in further provocations with a higher level of intensity.
What is certain is that the North can gain nothing from its repeated military provocations and brinksmanship. Kim should realize that his irrational and extreme behavior will only lose him what he earned from his diplomatic offensives that started with the 2018 PyeongChang Winter Olympics.
Concern is growing about the North's saber-rattling because it came a day after the Seoul government formally proposed providing food aid to Pyongyang. More worrisome, the Kim regime test-fired the missiles when U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Stephen Biegun was visiting South Korea to discuss the aid offer and how to break the deadlock over the stalled nuclear talks.
Pyongyang has virtually scoffed at the humanitarian offer -- implying that the North has no intention of returning to dialogue until the U.S. accommodates its call for sanctions relief. The North can only risk losing trust from the international community. Its provocation also deepens skepticism that the Kim regime will never give up its nuclear arsenal.
North Korea's escalation of tensions with military provocations is a typical case of its signature brinksmanship tactics. The Kim Jong-un regime appears to have gone back to such tactics since Kim's second summit with U.S. President Donald Trump collapsed in Hanoi in late February.
On Thursday, the North launched two short-range missiles from its northwestern region into the East Sea. They are said to be similar to Russia's Iskander missiles. One flew 420 kilometers and the other 270 kilometers. The test-firing followed the May 4 launch of similar projectiles identified as "tactical guided weapons." These provocations came after the North test-fired what it claimed were short-range tactical weapons April 17.
The show of force was apparently aimed at putting pressure on the U.S. to accept Pyongyang's demands for sanctions relief in return for partial denuclearization steps. In fact, the Kim regime has already issued a virtual ultimatum for the U.S. to change course. However, the Trump administration has reaffirmed that sanctions will remain until the North denuclearizes completely.
It is against this backdrop that Pyongyang has made a series of missile launches to extract concessions from Washington. Even though it argued the test-firings were part of "routine" and "self-defensive" drills, the North cannot avoid accusations that the tests were provocations apparently intended to vent Pyongyang's frustrations at the summit failure and the punishing sanctions.
It is important to note a U.S. media report that the Thursday launches were of ballistic missiles. If the report is true, the Kim regime cannot help but face condemnation that it has violated multiple U.N. resolutions banning ballistic missile technology. The North's actions could also run counter to a military agreement signed with South Korea last September to end inter-Korean hostility.
However, Pyongyang does not appear to have crossed the "red line" to go back to the 2017 confrontation with the U.S. in which fire and fury prevailed. Still, no one can rule out the possibility of the North engaging in further provocations with a higher level of intensity.
What is certain is that the North can gain nothing from its repeated military provocations and brinksmanship. Kim should realize that his irrational and extreme behavior will only lose him what he earned from his diplomatic offensives that started with the 2018 PyeongChang Winter Olympics.
Concern is growing about the North's saber-rattling because it came a day after the Seoul government formally proposed providing food aid to Pyongyang. More worrisome, the Kim regime test-fired the missiles when U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Stephen Biegun was visiting South Korea to discuss the aid offer and how to break the deadlock over the stalled nuclear talks.
Pyongyang has virtually scoffed at the humanitarian offer -- implying that the North has no intention of returning to dialogue until the U.S. accommodates its call for sanctions relief. The North can only risk losing trust from the international community. Its provocation also deepens skepticism that the Kim regime will never give up its nuclear arsenal.
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