By Andrew Hammond
Results released during the weekend from the U.K.'s "Super Thursday" elections on May 6 show that the country is more divided, politically, than any time in at least a generation, with the still significant possibility that Scotland may secede from the union.
In the biggest set of U.K. ballots ever outside of a general election year, Scotland re-emerged as the biggest danger to Boris Johnson's continuing premiership. The election in the U.K. saw parties favoring independence ― the Scottish National Party (SNP) and the Greens ― win a clear majority that could become the handmaiden to a second secession referendum.
The last such plebiscite in 2014 was lost by nationalists to the tune of 55-45. However, support for independence has surged since then, and some polls indicate that over 50 percent of voters now favor this option with one potential "game-changer" here: Brexit, which 68 percent of the Scottish electorate voted against in 2016.
If the SNP had won a majority by itself, that result might have piled insurmountable pressure on Johnson to allow a referendum. However, that worst-case scenario for the prime minister was avoided, as the nationalist party fell just short of this threshold, absent the addition of Green legislators.
Johnson will be relieved by this development, and will now seek to resist a new Scottish plebiscite. He knows that, if such a ballot were to be lost, his premiership would be over more-or-less immediately, just as David Cameron's was in 2016 when he was on the losing side of the Brexit ballot he himself called.
Johnson will now argue that a referendum on independence in the near term would put the U.K.'s economic recovery from the pandemic at risk. Logical as this argument is to many, however, the lesson of Brexit is that emotion can be the chief driver of voter sentiment. And the SNP and Greens will now raise the tempo on this issue, in a battle of wills with Johnson that could ultimately see litigation on the issue being decided by the U.K. Supreme Court.
The deep divisions in the U.K.'s body politic were also shown by the election results in England and Wales. In Wales, Labour performed the strongest, securing half of the seats in that nation's devolved legislature, which matched its best ever achievement there.
Meanwhile in England, Johnson's Conservatives performed generally strongly, including winning a big Westminster by-election in the longstanding Labour stronghold of Hartlepool, with a swing of some 16 percentage points; retaining the West Midlands mayoral seat of power with an enhanced majority; and securing a wide number of Council seats to boot. This result confirmed the powerful post-Brexit position that the party now holds in much of England, first revealed in the 2019 general election.
In performing so well in England, the Conservatives bypassed a series of scandals that have hit the party in the last few weeks. Perhaps the most damaging revelations surround Johnson's handling of the corona crisis. A growing number of voices, including from within the Conservative Party itself, are calling for a public inquiry as soon as possible.
This call comes as new accounts emerge of a battle of wills within Downing Street that saw a reportedly skeptical Johnson at odds with some key advisers over whether to implement a second pandemic lockdown in November. The prime minister reportedly said he would rather see dead "bodies piling up" than introduce a new sweeping wave of restrictions.
Such a probe still has political danger for Johnson in that there is a relatively wide consensus that he and the U.K. government made significant mistakes, especially in 2020, and his political credibility and authority have been tested repeatedly with increased doubts about whether he is up to the job. While many of the decisions he has made during the crisis have been very tough with no easy answers, his approach has too often been chaotic and incoherent.
Yet, for now at least, voter concerns about the prime minister, held by English voters, were largely swept aside for at least two reasons. Firstly, the U.K. economy has regained growth again, amid some predictions that the country is on course for its biggest boom since the 1940s.
This spurt of growth has been enabled by the second reason why the prime minister remains popular in many quarters. That reason is the country's rapid rollout of its vaccination program, which is allowing consumers to go out and spend surplus capital stored up during the pandemic.
The success of the U.K. jabs scheme has buoyed the popularity of the Conservatives, despite one of the highest per capita death rates from the pandemic, and an economy harder hit than almost any G20 country.
While the ballot highlighted the different political directions of England, Scotland and Wales, Johnson's hold on power appears significantly stronger now than during much of 2020. This hold may be deceptive, however, given the volatility of his premiership, which leaves open the possibility that his term could yet end sooner than many now expect, especially if he is forced to back down on a new Scottish referendum.
Andrew Hammond (andrewkorea@outlook.com) is an associate at LSE IDEAS in the London School of Economics.
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In the biggest set of U.K. ballots ever outside of a general election year, Scotland re-emerged as the biggest danger to Boris Johnson's continuing premiership. The election in the U.K. saw parties favoring independence ― the Scottish National Party (SNP) and the Greens ― win a clear majority that could become the handmaiden to a second secession referendum.
The last such plebiscite in 2014 was lost by nationalists to the tune of 55-45. However, support for independence has surged since then, and some polls indicate that over 50 percent of voters now favor this option with one potential "game-changer" here: Brexit, which 68 percent of the Scottish electorate voted against in 2016.
If the SNP had won a majority by itself, that result might have piled insurmountable pressure on Johnson to allow a referendum. However, that worst-case scenario for the prime minister was avoided, as the nationalist party fell just short of this threshold, absent the addition of Green legislators.
Johnson will be relieved by this development, and will now seek to resist a new Scottish plebiscite. He knows that, if such a ballot were to be lost, his premiership would be over more-or-less immediately, just as David Cameron's was in 2016 when he was on the losing side of the Brexit ballot he himself called.
Johnson will now argue that a referendum on independence in the near term would put the U.K.'s economic recovery from the pandemic at risk. Logical as this argument is to many, however, the lesson of Brexit is that emotion can be the chief driver of voter sentiment. And the SNP and Greens will now raise the tempo on this issue, in a battle of wills with Johnson that could ultimately see litigation on the issue being decided by the U.K. Supreme Court.
The deep divisions in the U.K.'s body politic were also shown by the election results in England and Wales. In Wales, Labour performed the strongest, securing half of the seats in that nation's devolved legislature, which matched its best ever achievement there.
Meanwhile in England, Johnson's Conservatives performed generally strongly, including winning a big Westminster by-election in the longstanding Labour stronghold of Hartlepool, with a swing of some 16 percentage points; retaining the West Midlands mayoral seat of power with an enhanced majority; and securing a wide number of Council seats to boot. This result confirmed the powerful post-Brexit position that the party now holds in much of England, first revealed in the 2019 general election.
In performing so well in England, the Conservatives bypassed a series of scandals that have hit the party in the last few weeks. Perhaps the most damaging revelations surround Johnson's handling of the corona crisis. A growing number of voices, including from within the Conservative Party itself, are calling for a public inquiry as soon as possible.
This call comes as new accounts emerge of a battle of wills within Downing Street that saw a reportedly skeptical Johnson at odds with some key advisers over whether to implement a second pandemic lockdown in November. The prime minister reportedly said he would rather see dead "bodies piling up" than introduce a new sweeping wave of restrictions.
Such a probe still has political danger for Johnson in that there is a relatively wide consensus that he and the U.K. government made significant mistakes, especially in 2020, and his political credibility and authority have been tested repeatedly with increased doubts about whether he is up to the job. While many of the decisions he has made during the crisis have been very tough with no easy answers, his approach has too often been chaotic and incoherent.
Yet, for now at least, voter concerns about the prime minister, held by English voters, were largely swept aside for at least two reasons. Firstly, the U.K. economy has regained growth again, amid some predictions that the country is on course for its biggest boom since the 1940s.
This spurt of growth has been enabled by the second reason why the prime minister remains popular in many quarters. That reason is the country's rapid rollout of its vaccination program, which is allowing consumers to go out and spend surplus capital stored up during the pandemic.
The success of the U.K. jabs scheme has buoyed the popularity of the Conservatives, despite one of the highest per capita death rates from the pandemic, and an economy harder hit than almost any G20 country.
While the ballot highlighted the different political directions of England, Scotland and Wales, Johnson's hold on power appears significantly stronger now than during much of 2020. This hold may be deceptive, however, given the volatility of his premiership, which leaves open the possibility that his term could yet end sooner than many now expect, especially if he is forced to back down on a new Scottish referendum.
Andrew Hammond (andrewkorea@outlook.com) is an associate at LSE IDEAS in the London School of Economics.
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