By Andrew Hammond
While the eyes of many environmentalists across the world are already on November's U.K.-hosted COP 26 summit, the U.S.-hosted climate conference on Thursday and Friday was key too, in the most important year for global warming diplomacy since 2015.
The U.S. event, which saw President Joe Biden and some 40 other world leaders convene on global warming, is important for at least two big reasons. Firstly, the United States is back leading on the climate agenda and announced plans to cut greenhouse emissions by 2030 to at least 50 percent below 2005 levels, approximately doubling the previous U.S. promise.
While even the new U.S. commitment lags behind Europe, it is already spurring other large emitters to raise their game as U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres hinted recently when he said it "will have very important consequences in relation to Japan, in relation to China, in relation to Russia." This was borne out last week with a series of other countries raising their climate ambitions too.
Japanese Prime Minister Yoshide Suga said last week his country is "ready to demonstrate its leadership" announcing a reduction of emissions by 46 percent in 2030 compared to 2013 levels. Previously, the country had pledged only a 26 percent cut in emissions over the same timeframe. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau also promised to limit carbon emissions by 40 percent to 44 percent by 2030 too.
Key emerging markets including Brazil, South Africa and India are also working to strengthen their so-called nationally determined contributions (NDCs) pledged at Paris in 2015 to cut emissions. In a joint statement earlier this month, they said that they had "already set forth climate policies and contributions reflecting their highest possible ambition."
For instance, South Africa is consulting on deepening its 2030 emissions cuts by almost a third compared to its 2015 NDC pledge. Moreover, Biden is hoping to strike a climate-related deal with President Jair Bolsonaro on protecting the Amazon rainforest.
The second reason why last week's U.S. summit matters is that it heralded the first moment since the Obama presidency where China and the United States are working together in partnership on this agenda. Earlier this month, Chinese climate envoy Xie Zhenhua and his U.S. counterpart John Kerry met in Shanghai. They agreed to "continue to discuss concrete actions in the 2020s to reduce emissions aimed at keeping the Paris Agreement-aligned temperature limit within reach," and help developing countries finance a switch to low-carbon energy.
The Kerry-Xie initiative is incredibly important because it will not be possible to stabilize climate change unless these superpowers pull together. It is sometimes forgotten that collaboration between the two in 2014 led to a bilateral agreement which proved the catalyst for Paris the following year. Kerry's trip to China shows that, despite, the chilliness of last month's bilateral talks in Alaska, the climate issue "stands alone" in the words of the U.S. climate chief.
In coming weeks, Biden and Kerry will push Beijing hard for a new bold commitment to reciprocate the one given by Biden last week. At the summit, Chinese President Xi Jinping hinted that coal burning will be tackled in the next few years. Much is needed to be done by Beijing in this area as, according to the International Energy Agency, it will be responsible for around half the growth in coal consumption around the world this year.
Providing the United States and China are broadly aligned on this agenda, again, the EU will provide a third leg of the stool. Collectively, the 27-nation European club, plus China and the United States account for around half of global climate emissions and the triumvirate are critical to positive global climate diplomacy.
With last week's U.S. summit a success, this year's COP progress has been catalyzed. This is important because if the November summit is to "move the dial," massive momentum is needed in the months ahead.
This is why a detailed 2021 run-in of pre-events to November has been devised that will culminate in the G20 leaders meeting in Italy in October. Moving into next month and June, there is the B7 business leaders climate meeting; the U.K.-hosted G7 leaders summit; plus the "Race to Zero" first anniversary and U.N. Global Compact leaders summit. Then this autumn, there is the U.N. General Assembly and Climate Week in New York in September, and the Global Green Investment summit in October.
This week's U.S. climate summit was, however, potentially the most crucial event before November. If Biden can now help convince more key countries to reduce emissions faster and deeper, the prospects will increase significantly that Glasgow will become the most successful COP since Paris in 2015.
Andrew Hammond is an Associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.
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The U.S. event, which saw President Joe Biden and some 40 other world leaders convene on global warming, is important for at least two big reasons. Firstly, the United States is back leading on the climate agenda and announced plans to cut greenhouse emissions by 2030 to at least 50 percent below 2005 levels, approximately doubling the previous U.S. promise.
While even the new U.S. commitment lags behind Europe, it is already spurring other large emitters to raise their game as U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres hinted recently when he said it "will have very important consequences in relation to Japan, in relation to China, in relation to Russia." This was borne out last week with a series of other countries raising their climate ambitions too.
Japanese Prime Minister Yoshide Suga said last week his country is "ready to demonstrate its leadership" announcing a reduction of emissions by 46 percent in 2030 compared to 2013 levels. Previously, the country had pledged only a 26 percent cut in emissions over the same timeframe. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau also promised to limit carbon emissions by 40 percent to 44 percent by 2030 too.
Key emerging markets including Brazil, South Africa and India are also working to strengthen their so-called nationally determined contributions (NDCs) pledged at Paris in 2015 to cut emissions. In a joint statement earlier this month, they said that they had "already set forth climate policies and contributions reflecting their highest possible ambition."
For instance, South Africa is consulting on deepening its 2030 emissions cuts by almost a third compared to its 2015 NDC pledge. Moreover, Biden is hoping to strike a climate-related deal with President Jair Bolsonaro on protecting the Amazon rainforest.
The second reason why last week's U.S. summit matters is that it heralded the first moment since the Obama presidency where China and the United States are working together in partnership on this agenda. Earlier this month, Chinese climate envoy Xie Zhenhua and his U.S. counterpart John Kerry met in Shanghai. They agreed to "continue to discuss concrete actions in the 2020s to reduce emissions aimed at keeping the Paris Agreement-aligned temperature limit within reach," and help developing countries finance a switch to low-carbon energy.
The Kerry-Xie initiative is incredibly important because it will not be possible to stabilize climate change unless these superpowers pull together. It is sometimes forgotten that collaboration between the two in 2014 led to a bilateral agreement which proved the catalyst for Paris the following year. Kerry's trip to China shows that, despite, the chilliness of last month's bilateral talks in Alaska, the climate issue "stands alone" in the words of the U.S. climate chief.
In coming weeks, Biden and Kerry will push Beijing hard for a new bold commitment to reciprocate the one given by Biden last week. At the summit, Chinese President Xi Jinping hinted that coal burning will be tackled in the next few years. Much is needed to be done by Beijing in this area as, according to the International Energy Agency, it will be responsible for around half the growth in coal consumption around the world this year.
Providing the United States and China are broadly aligned on this agenda, again, the EU will provide a third leg of the stool. Collectively, the 27-nation European club, plus China and the United States account for around half of global climate emissions and the triumvirate are critical to positive global climate diplomacy.
With last week's U.S. summit a success, this year's COP progress has been catalyzed. This is important because if the November summit is to "move the dial," massive momentum is needed in the months ahead.
This is why a detailed 2021 run-in of pre-events to November has been devised that will culminate in the G20 leaders meeting in Italy in October. Moving into next month and June, there is the B7 business leaders climate meeting; the U.K.-hosted G7 leaders summit; plus the "Race to Zero" first anniversary and U.N. Global Compact leaders summit. Then this autumn, there is the U.N. General Assembly and Climate Week in New York in September, and the Global Green Investment summit in October.
This week's U.S. climate summit was, however, potentially the most crucial event before November. If Biden can now help convince more key countries to reduce emissions faster and deeper, the prospects will increase significantly that Glasgow will become the most successful COP since Paris in 2015.
Andrew Hammond is an Associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.
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