By Andrew Hammond
President Vladimir Putin signed a new law last week that could keep him in power till 2036, potentially alongside China's Xi Jinping. In other words, Russia's foreign policy is becoming dangerously emboldened again.
Exhibit A is the Ukraine border where Moscow has built up an estimated 25,000 troops in a major show of force. Former Russian deputy prime minister Dmitry Kozak warned last week that Moscow could intervene to help its citizens in eastern Ukraine as tensions rise in the region which has been a flashpoint since Russian-sympathizing separatists seized swathes of territory there in 2014.
The build-up worries the West, and former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Steve Pifer asserts that the situation is "one step from war." To this end, the United States put its forces in Europe on a higher level of alert last week with President Joe Biden re-affirming his support for Ukraine's "sovereignty and territorial integrity."
While the skirmishes may die down again, that is by no means guaranteed. Putin's mission since assuming power almost a quarter of a century ago has been trying to restore Russia's geopolitical prominence through international gambits like the annexation of Crimea, his intervention in Syria, and the fostering of joint economic activities in the Far East disputed islands off Japan's northernmost main island of Hokkaido.
Another recent illustration of Moscow's growing global ambitions was Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's tour of the Middle East and Asia. The grand itinerary saw him visiting key countries, including China, Korea, Pakistan, India, Iran, the UAE and Qatar.
While Putin's foreign policy escapades have ― so far at least ― generally played well domestically, they have resulted in frostier relations with the West. A key question remains in the coming years how the relationship, specifically with the United States, will fare under Biden, who may not seek re-election when he will be in his 80s.
The most likely outcome is continuing chilled ties, and Putin at 68 may already be thinking ahead to the next US president, or two, hoping for another maverick Donald Trump-type figure more congenial to his interests. Indeed, such is Putin's longevity, which would surpass even Joseph Stalin's long reign by the early 2030s, that he is fast becoming one of the longest serving world leaders of modern times along with Fidel Castro, who managed 52 years as Cuban prime minister and then president, and Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei who has been in the post since 1989.
Yet, while Putin appears to be firmly entrenched, if not politically impregnable right now, numerous challenges persist. The pandemic, for one, has posed a major challenge.
Last spring, he introduced a six-week lockdown that severely hurt the Russian economy. His approval ratings plummeted to a recent low of 59% with the government forcing the easing of restrictions, helping reduce economic damage and shoring up his polling. The sinking of his approval ratings reveals that he is far from certain to serve till 2036, especially if his political luck finally goes south, fueled by a potential foreign policy misadventure or domestic economic travails.
To keep his hold in power, it seems very likely that Putin will continue to rely on the political playbook that has served him well so far: namely, forging a sense of post-Cold War patriotism fueled by a growing economy during much of the period. Such post-Cold War patriotism could have profound implications for international politics, especially given his growing closeness to Chinese President Xi Jinping who is another potential "president for life."
Xi was given a green-light to remain in power for an indefinite period in 2018 after the National People's Congress approved the removal of the two-term limit on the presidency, which had been in place since the 1990s. He has therefore amassed political power in his country, the likes of which has not been seen since Mao Zedong.
In this context, both Beijing and Moscow are working more closely together not just to further bilateral interests, but also to hedge against the prospects of a continuing chill in US ties.
The closeness of the relationship between Xi and Putin is one key reason why the frost appears unlikely to thaw in Russia's relations with the West. In this context, Putin is increasingly asserting Russian power in other areas of the globe, from the Asia-Pacific to Africa and the Americas.
One of the key features of this foreign policy approach is doubling down support for longstanding allies who are Western foes, including Venezuela, Syria, North Korea and Iran. On the latter, for instance, Moscow pushed hard during the Trump presidency for the continuation of the 2015 nuclear deal.
These current foreign policy moves show how the implications of Putin's long period in office go well beyond the Russian domestic political landscape. With Moscow's ties with Washington and the wider West being so frosty, an even closer economic and political alliance with Xi in Beijing appears likely if both of their presidencies extend into the 2030s.
Andrew Hammond (andrewkorea@outlook.com) is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.
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Exhibit A is the Ukraine border where Moscow has built up an estimated 25,000 troops in a major show of force. Former Russian deputy prime minister Dmitry Kozak warned last week that Moscow could intervene to help its citizens in eastern Ukraine as tensions rise in the region which has been a flashpoint since Russian-sympathizing separatists seized swathes of territory there in 2014.
The build-up worries the West, and former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Steve Pifer asserts that the situation is "one step from war." To this end, the United States put its forces in Europe on a higher level of alert last week with President Joe Biden re-affirming his support for Ukraine's "sovereignty and territorial integrity."
While the skirmishes may die down again, that is by no means guaranteed. Putin's mission since assuming power almost a quarter of a century ago has been trying to restore Russia's geopolitical prominence through international gambits like the annexation of Crimea, his intervention in Syria, and the fostering of joint economic activities in the Far East disputed islands off Japan's northernmost main island of Hokkaido.
Another recent illustration of Moscow's growing global ambitions was Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's tour of the Middle East and Asia. The grand itinerary saw him visiting key countries, including China, Korea, Pakistan, India, Iran, the UAE and Qatar.
While Putin's foreign policy escapades have ― so far at least ― generally played well domestically, they have resulted in frostier relations with the West. A key question remains in the coming years how the relationship, specifically with the United States, will fare under Biden, who may not seek re-election when he will be in his 80s.
The most likely outcome is continuing chilled ties, and Putin at 68 may already be thinking ahead to the next US president, or two, hoping for another maverick Donald Trump-type figure more congenial to his interests. Indeed, such is Putin's longevity, which would surpass even Joseph Stalin's long reign by the early 2030s, that he is fast becoming one of the longest serving world leaders of modern times along with Fidel Castro, who managed 52 years as Cuban prime minister and then president, and Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei who has been in the post since 1989.
Yet, while Putin appears to be firmly entrenched, if not politically impregnable right now, numerous challenges persist. The pandemic, for one, has posed a major challenge.
Last spring, he introduced a six-week lockdown that severely hurt the Russian economy. His approval ratings plummeted to a recent low of 59% with the government forcing the easing of restrictions, helping reduce economic damage and shoring up his polling. The sinking of his approval ratings reveals that he is far from certain to serve till 2036, especially if his political luck finally goes south, fueled by a potential foreign policy misadventure or domestic economic travails.
To keep his hold in power, it seems very likely that Putin will continue to rely on the political playbook that has served him well so far: namely, forging a sense of post-Cold War patriotism fueled by a growing economy during much of the period. Such post-Cold War patriotism could have profound implications for international politics, especially given his growing closeness to Chinese President Xi Jinping who is another potential "president for life."
Xi was given a green-light to remain in power for an indefinite period in 2018 after the National People's Congress approved the removal of the two-term limit on the presidency, which had been in place since the 1990s. He has therefore amassed political power in his country, the likes of which has not been seen since Mao Zedong.
In this context, both Beijing and Moscow are working more closely together not just to further bilateral interests, but also to hedge against the prospects of a continuing chill in US ties.
The closeness of the relationship between Xi and Putin is one key reason why the frost appears unlikely to thaw in Russia's relations with the West. In this context, Putin is increasingly asserting Russian power in other areas of the globe, from the Asia-Pacific to Africa and the Americas.
One of the key features of this foreign policy approach is doubling down support for longstanding allies who are Western foes, including Venezuela, Syria, North Korea and Iran. On the latter, for instance, Moscow pushed hard during the Trump presidency for the continuation of the 2015 nuclear deal.
These current foreign policy moves show how the implications of Putin's long period in office go well beyond the Russian domestic political landscape. With Moscow's ties with Washington and the wider West being so frosty, an even closer economic and political alliance with Xi in Beijing appears likely if both of their presidencies extend into the 2030s.
Andrew Hammond (andrewkorea@outlook.com) is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.
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