'It's the statistics, stupid'

By Park Moo-jong

There are many satirical remarks about statistics by famous figures who have made history in their different fields.

On top of the list of quotes, in my opinion, is the crystal clear expression by Benjamin Disraeli (1804-1881), a British statesman of the Conservative Party who twice served as prime minister of the United Kingdom.

He said, "There are three types of lies ― lies, damn lies and statistics."

American writer Mark Twain (1835-1910), author of "The Adventures of Tom Sawyer," followed to define that, "facts are stubborn things, but statistics are pliable," as if the humorist foresaw the manipulation of statistics in some countries in the 21st century.

Today's statistics in the Republic of Korea have made those in power in the ruling camp, notably Cheong Wa Dae, be now glad, now sad. And the official statistics, particularly, about the economy are increasingly losing the public's confidence as if to prove Disraeli's quip.

On Aug. 26, five days before the 24th anniversary of the "Day of Statistics," then Commissioner Hwang Soo-kyeong of Statistics Korea (KOSTAT) lost her job just 13 months after her appointment for a two-year term.

The presidential office gave the lame explanation that she was replaced in a "routine" reshuffle, but the controversy over the "sudden" dismissal of the KOSTAT chief has yet to abate.

Earlier, her office released statistics on the national economy featuring alarming numbers on employment and household income, humiliating the Moon Jae-in administration's "ambitious" policy for income-led growth and minimum wage increases.

Not only the opposition parties, but many ordinary people suspect that Cheong Wa Dae was not happy with the figures from her office, though its spokesman flatly denied the Moon government was threatening the neutrality of KOSTAT.

Cheong Wa Dae tapped a Ph.D. in economics whose work fully supported the merits of Moon's income-led growth policy to succeed the sacked commissioner.

What a coincidence!

The outgoing Hwang asked her "former" employees in her teary swansong not to yield to "political pressure," indicating that she was persona non grata at the presidential office.

She confessed she had not been that obedient to people in the top hierarchy (in Cheong Wa Dae), probably hinting that those "people" could include Jang Ha-sung, Moon's top policy secretary.

Statistics are a major important index to be used for national policymaking. If the government does something to purposefully manipulate the figures, it will lose the public's trust, and the international credibility of the nation will suffer a serious fall.

The happy new commissioner astonished the people by saying in a meeting of ministers of economy-related agencies, "I will repay, you, ministers' policies by making good statistics." This could be interpreted as implying he intends to massage the figures to satisfy them. Earlier, he vowed to defend the independence of his new office.

To date, the Greek government spoke a "damn lie" in June 2006 that the country's fiscal deficit stood at 6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in order to join the eurozone, although the real red figures doubled to 12.5 percent. Argentina was found to have followed suit of late.

Nine years later, the statistical manipulation was disclosed by an EU investigation and Greece eventually faced a crisis of a national moratorium for an EU bailout program and managed to recover in August this year after painful restructuring.

Various signs are pointing to Korea's worsening economic conditions amid sharply rising inflation rates, skyrocketing apartment prices and increasing unemployment, not to speak of the drastic hikes in the minimum wage.

But the people, particularly housewives in the middle and low income brackets, are primarily concerned about prices of consumer items. The inflations rate for commodities directly related to their livelihoods, such as vegetables, fruit and meat, are much higher than the official statistics.

The people have no other choice but to be confused by the different figures. Government officials have been seemingly obsessed with economic indices. They must gain a correct understanding of the price trend at markets, not on their own tables.

They have to listen carefully to the voices of the people at markets to truly feel the real situation without being satisfied only with the figures they have compiled. I wonder if they have ever heard the complaints of the ordinary citizens of late. Government officials, who have never earned money with their own hands so far, but have only struggled to cook economic data as they like, are reluctant to see the market trend as it is now.

Just visit conventional markets even once, not the department stores, which are "crowded with shoppers as a sign of good economy" as insisted by a leading ruling party lawmaker.

They will be surprised at the price of a bunch of spinach: 10,000 won. The normal price should be 2,000 won. The price of kimchi has already more than doubled, even if the unprecedented heat wave of this summer was responsible.

It is a dishonest government that compiles dishonest figures to deceive the people, namely voters. Unless government statistics are honest, the administration is doomed to lose public confidence in the long run. The dropping approval rating of the Moon government must be seen as a good lesson.

Park Moo-jong (emjei29@gmail.com) is a standing adviser of The Korea Times. He served as the president-publisher of the nation's first English daily newspaper from 2004 to 2014 after working as a reporter since 1974.