In the year 2750

By Park Moo-jong

Forty-seven years ago back in 1969, American rock-pop duo Zager and Evans hit the charts across the nation with "In the Year 2525 (Exordium & Terminus)."

The then sensational song opens with the words: "In the year 2525, if man is still alive, if woman can survive, they may find..."

Subsequent lyrics give ominous predictions for the future at 1010-year intervals from 2525 to 6565. In 6565, for example, you "ain't gonna need no husband, won't need no wife...you'll pick your son, pick your daughter, too, from the bottom of a long glass tube."

However, the duo did not predict what will happen in the year 2750, 734 years from now, on the Korean Peninsula.

According to a scenario based on various statistics and surveys by leading world organizations, the Korean people will cease to exist.

The people that had created the "Miracle on the Han River" and brought their country from the ashes of the devastating 1950-1953 civil war to global admiration will vanish into history.

Most people wouldn't like to believe it. "How can such a thing take place?"

But the prediction is not groundless. Ten years ago, the Oxford Centre of Population Research in Britain predicted that South Korea would be the first country to disappear from the globe.

Fourteen months ago, I wrote a column titled "Wishing to hear babies crying" about the seriousness of the ever-shrinking population caused by the trend of not having babies.

The story went on: "Babies crying are increasingly disappearing in South Korea due to the ever-dropping birthrate, which was only behind Singapore in 2014, according to the U.S. CIA Factbook.

"The National Assembly Research Service released a dreadful report last week that South Korea will be "empty" by 2750 without any effective efforts to halt its falling birthrate.

"Though the worst scenario predicts the situation after 735 years, it must have given people the creeps: "Koreans will be extinct by 2750."

Apparently shocked by the 2006 Oxford Centre's warning, the government hurriedly set up the "Low Birthrate, Aging Society Committee" under the direct control of the President to boost the shockingly low birthrate of 1.08.

The government spent as much as 150 trillion won ($130 billion) over the past 10 years only to raise the rate to 1.21 in 2014, but the rate rose merely to 1.23 last year, showing little has changed in the past year, disgracing the "various programs" to encourage newlyweds to have babies.

Even the Bank of Korea governor expressed his deep concern 10 days ago, saying what the government officials in charge of the issue are supposed to say: "The low fertility rate is a greater challenge than rising household debt. The government needs to come up with a better policy for the low birthrate and aging population."

One consolation is that our society must be interested in this "critical" question about why our young people tend not to have babies.

Almost everybody knows it: the average marriage age is getting ever later and the number of people living single is increasing. A woman who gets married at age 35 or older has little chance to have a second baby.

A heavy financial burden over expenses for childcare and education is primarily to blame for the trend of not having babies.

The nation's ratio of expenses for child and family welfare to GDP is only 0.5 percent, a quarter of the OECD average of 2 percent, according to the OECD. Even considering the fiscal burden stemming from a rapid rise in welfare costs, government incentives are not enough to boost childbirth.

The government announced last week it will earmark 180 trillion won ($165 billion) for the coming five years to solve the problems of low birthrate and aging population. But the question is whether the "big" money will help raise the birthrate.

The stubborn trend not to give birth is not only caused by economic factors, but also social ones. In other words, the young generation of today does not think of getting married and having babies as a "necessity" of life.

The government's statistics prove this. There were a total of 24,300 marriages in June, decreased by 9.0 percent, compared with the same month last year, which was the lowest level since 2000.

Economic incentives appear to run on empty on tiding over this kind of social phenomenon of avoiding marriage and childbirth.

One good option to help solve this problem is to admit more immigrants, if our young people evade marriage and do not give birth. The government needs to implement more positive policies to lower the barriers for foreigners who want to become Koreans.

As of the end of July, foreign residents, namely immigrants, number 2,030,000, an increase of 10 percent annually over the past 10 years. The globe has already become multicultural.

In Korea, children had traditionally been "assets," namely a workforce, while in this industrial society of indefinite competition; they are "expenses."

And so, the role of our legislators is paramount. They need to work out bills required to encourage young people to have babies and foreigners to make this society more multicultural.

The scenario for 2750 should end as fiction.

As I wrote earlier, I hope all Koreans of today, not to speak for myself, will hear babies cry, as early as possible, as Louis Armstrong (1901-1971) sings in his 1967 song, "What a Wonderful World."

Park Moo-jong is the Korea Times advisor. He had been president-publisher of the nation's first English newspaper after having worked as a reporter of the daily since 1974. He can be reached at moojong@ktimes.com or emjei29@gmail.com.