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Like many other foreigners who lived in Seoul, I had spent many hours in the alley behind the Hamilton Hotel with its bars, restaurants and clubs. It was easy to imagine what had happened. As the crowd grew to the point of suffocation in the alley, some sought to escape by going down one of the four narrow passageways that link the alley to Itaewon's main street. But they were blocked by people trying to enter the passageways as they sought to join the festivities in the alley. This created the crush that ended the lives of at least 158 people.
It was also shocking that such a tragic event could occur when the country has become known as "cool Korea." It brought back memories of the bad old days when Korea was known for large man-made disasters that took many lives.
After I first arrived as a journalist in Korea 30 years ago, I had to cover the March 1993 Mugunghwa train crash (78 dead), the July 1993 crash of an Asiana Boeing 737 (66 dead), the October 1993 Seohae ferry sinking (292 dead), the October 1994 collapse of Seongsu Bridge over the Han River (32 dead), the April 1995 gas pipe explosion in Daegu (101 dead), the June 1995 collapse of Sampoong Department Store (502 dead), the August 1997 crash of a Korean Air 747 on Guam (247 dead), and the 2003 Daegu subway fire (192 dead).
Of course, more recently was the April 2014 Sewol ferry disaster, which claimed the lives of more than 300 people, most of them school-age, and led to the erosion of public confidence in the administration of President Park Geun-hye that would later result in her impeachment.
Many of these earlier disasters could be blamed on several factors, including criminal negligence, shoddy construction or pure incompetence, which reflected Korea's sometimes reckless rush to modernity.
How the Itaewon tragedy will eventually be judged remains unclear. But it is obvious that the authorities ignored predictions that up to 130,000 mainly young revelers would show up in the Itaewon neighborhood to celebrate Halloween and as a result, did not take adequate crowd control measures.
The Itaewon tragedy represents another source of political peril for President Yoon Suk-yeol, who is already unpopular. Many blame the tragedy on his style of governing.
The former prosecutor general has spent his first months in the presidential office engaging in what many view as political vendettas against the opposition. Prosecutors have spent their time trying to unearth scandals in the preceding administration of Moon Jae-in.
The role of the police is related to this effort. Large police forces were assigned to guard against anti-Yoon protest rallies, including a nearby one earlier in the day before the tragedy struck. Prime Minister Han Duck-soo said a large police presence at the anti-Yoon rallies was necessary in contrast to at the Itaewon Halloween event because "even a crowd of 100,000 poses no risk as they have no ideological differences or political motives."
The police initially assigned only around 70 police officers to manage the huge inflow of Halloween crowds into Itaewon. When the crowds began building up, the police received calls warning of a potential disaster. The Itaewon police station, which is only 100 meters away from where the crush occurred, called for backup units, but to no avail.
Meanwhile, scores of officers were guarding the empty presidential residence under construction nearby that has become a symbol of Yoon's erratic priorities. There were many police that night in the Yongsan district, under the jurisdiction of which Itaewon is included, but most were engaged in ticketing illegally parked cars or trying to bust drug users, a reflection of the Yoon administration's emphasis on law and order.
The government initially appeared detached in its response to the tragedy. It tried to shift the blame to local officials, including the Yongsan Police Station chief, instead of punishing more senior officials, such as the interior minister or the head of the National Police Agency. There have also been reports that the government has tried to intimidate critics, including those in the media and progressive civic groups, over the tragedy.
The Yoon administration's reaction smacks of the government's missteps in the wake of the Sewol disaster that eventually led to the downfall of former President Park Geun-hye. Like Park, Yoon has already squandered much of his political capital even before the tragedy struck and the Itaewon disaster could prove to be the defining moment of his presidency.
John Burton (johnburtonft@yahoo.com), a former Korea correspondent for the Financial Times, is a Washington, D.C.-based journalist and consultant.