Down the rabbit hole

By Cho Hee-kyoung

Did the New Year feel a little flat this year or was it just me? Sending off 2022 with a sigh of relief. Good riddance, one might say. It was not a happy year, descending to the nadir with a senseless tragedy in its final months. But the changing of the calendar year has not ushered in a new beginning, it feels.

Perhaps it has to do with the number 2023. It is a lukewarm kind of a number: neither the start nor the end, not even the middle. It represents no significant milestone nor an anniversary nor anything else remarkable. Instead, we seem to be stuck in a time loop, going through the same old strife, the same old quarrels and disputes, and just adding on new worries.

In the Chinese zodiac calendar, this is the year of the black rabbit (or at least it will soon be once the Lunar New Year comes around later this month). The rabbit in Korean traditional folklore is typically associated with quick thinking (see the folk tale of the hare that managed to evade Neptune who wanted to eat its liver), abundance (the moon with a rabbit pounding grains in a supersized mortar), loyalty, kindness, longevity and fertility. In reality, 2023 promises to be a difficult year for everyone.

The troubles that had begun in the old year continue in the new and only seem to get worse. High inflation and high interest rates are placing greater financial burdens on those who can least afford it. Increasing protectionism in world trade threatens Korea's export-driven economy. The income gap grows wider by the day and the new taxation and deregulation measures and market-oriented policies of the government seem designed to deepen it further.

The real estate market in which much of the Korean middle class' wealth is tied up seems to be teetering on the brink of a hard landing. The lowest birth rate in the world shows no sign of improving. Infractions by North Korea become bolder each time culminating in the recent breach of airspace over Seoul to which our military was a mere hapless bystander. And whoever said the art of politics was about persuasion and compromise, they would be hard-pressed to find anything close to it in Korean politics right now.

So looking ahead, what can we expect to see in 2023? Higher living costs seem to be inevitable since electricity and gas are scheduled for a long overdue increase. Public transport fares as well as basic and staple foodstuff prices are also set to rise. The central bank has already flagged a baby step hike in the interest rate. Balance of trade might improve somewhat as China gives up its zero-COVID policy and opens up its doors once again.

Nonetheless, there remains the risk of a backlash against measures that Korea has taken with regard to travelers from China in order to guard against the spread of the virus. Korea will face further pressures to manifest its allegiances clearly and possibly be forced to choose security over trade unless some wily diplomacy is successfully deployed (no one is holding breath here). The war in Ukraine seems destined to drag on with no clear end in sight inevitably affecting commodity prices and acting as a destabilizing force overall.

Worst of all is the outlook on domestic politics. There is not even any pretense of cooperation and communication between the ruling party and the opposition. The president is looking to dominate the conservative party by implanting a close ally as the party leader ahead of next year's general election so as to ensure he has control of candidate nominations. The opposition party leader is facing a barrage of criminal investigations and will soon be called in by the prosecution. Even if he is eventually found free of blame, the political damage sustained will be difficult to shake off.

In the meantime, daily life grinds on. The pandemic will be downgraded to an endemic. Masks might soon become optional indoors although many people say they now feel naked going without one. People will become two years younger thanks to adopting a different way of counting age. We will once again fail to do our share in limiting carbon emissions. Gender wars and generational battles will get uglier. Online hate speech will worsen.

Children will continue to struggle under intense pressure and competition. Many of the elderly will not have enough to get by after a lifetime of hard work. More deaths will occur in entirely preventable industrial accidents and from overwork. More people will die alone. The haves will have more, the have-nots will despair.

Would it be in vain to hope that at least the national commission on the tragic disaster on Halloween will actually uncover what went so horribly wrong on that fateful night, unlike the police investigation that started with a bang but is ending with a whimper? For now, we see through a glass darkly, but then we hope to face to face.

Now we know only in parts but then we hope to know as we are known. Even when everything seems desperate, we must remind ourselves that the darkest hour is just before dawn. After all, Korea is the land of the morning calm.

Cho Hee-kyoung (hongikmail@gmail.com) is a professor at Hongik University College of Law.